Winter Storm?

I guess they are predicting some more sub freezing weather in here for the next couple of days. Ya'll dress warm, drive careful if it hits your area. Throw a couple extra logs on the fire and cook up some good venison!!!

Just heard someone here in Greenville say 6-7” Weds-Thurs. Haven’t seen/heard a actual forecast calling for any more than 1”.

Sportsman said:

Just heard someone here in Greenville say 6-7” Weds-Thurs. Haven’t seen/heard a actual forecast calling for any more than 1”.

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6-7" is pretty unlikely given the setup, at this point a general 1-3" type event is favored.....though there are ways this could turn into a bigger hit the chances of that are really quite low....the cold will be below average but nothing like the first week of Jan., models have kinda backed off the storm actually though this is a known bias in models to "lose" the storm in the 4-5 day range only to ramp it back up in the last 48 hrs or so....still Alberta clippers almost never pay off in NC with more than a light dusting to a few inches....

All I've seen any forecaster calling for on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning is sleet and maybe and inch or two of snow, and even that much is questionable.

(But I'm sure the schools will be closed for the rest of the week).

Based on the predictions for the last one we are prepared for anything,,,,,

What are y'all seeing now?

Pretty sure Food Lion is calling for 12".


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302cj said:

pretty sure food lion is calling for 12".

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hahahaha

Still hard to nail down the models are having trouble deciding if the trough tilts negative and spawns a coastal low or not....timing wise also isnt that great and it could be a rain to snow event for eastern NC and those rarely give more than a slushy inch down this way. As of right now your best chance to see more than 1-2" is along the VA border from the Triad over the Roanoke Rapids.....

Looks like some of the totals in central NC are going up!


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Yeah models are really starting to lean towards a bit more organized system.....several hi res models have the trough going neutral and or even negative and the base of the trough cuts off into a upper level low....if you want more than 1-3" of snow this is what you wanna see, some of the hi res also really kick the 250mb jet into high gear and that would allow this thing to tap into gulf moisture which would also elevate totals....best chance of seeing more than 3" would be Charlotte to the Triad basically 50 miles either side of I 77, as a meso low forms and rides up the lee side trough...this is a local micro cliate type feature and its tough for models to see or predict these well....we saw a similar setup to this back in Jan 2003 and it all gelled and dumped a foot around Charlotte...

Further east if all the above things I mention above come to pass then we should see more as well...especially if the trough sharpens up and cuts off and pops a surface low off the SE coast that moves NE.....several models hint at that as well...so 2-4" for the Triangle down to Greenville basically north of 264, a dusting to 2" south of there.....luckily the temps will recover by the weekend into the 50's so this one wont be followed by insanely cold air.

Fischel tonight here in Raleigh said it'll be a cold front snow, which is usually over quickly and not much accumulation. Wednesday evening drive home might be ugly though.

NCST8GUY said:

Fischel tonight here in Raleigh said it'll be a cold front snow, which is usually over quickly and not much accumulation. Wednesday evening drive home might be ugly though.

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Typical WRAL though, its the smart call if the ULL doesnt cut off it will be exactly that a 2-4 hr period of light snow behind the front....if you blend all the models right now RDU probably looking at a general 1-2" across the Triangle, besides they still have a entire day tomorrow to adjust to higher totals.....for most OAM the rule is stay low and creep up its always better to add at the last minute than to call for 4-6" and end up with nothing to a few inches.

downeastnc said:

Typical WRAL though, its the smart call if the ULL doesnt cut off it will be exactly that a 2-4 hr period of light snow behind the front....if you blend all the models right now RDU probably looking at a general 1-2" across the Triangle, besides they still have a entire day tomorrow to adjust to higher totals.....for most OAM the rule is stay low and creep up its always better to add at the last minute than to call for 4-6" and end up with nothing to a few inches.

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I remember decades ago when they called 4-6 and got a trace. I don't want to say "death threats" lol, but people were ANGRY!!! lol. They seem to almost completely discout the ULL at this point. I don't think they would risk that after what weather folks went through a few years ago by missing it by 1/8th of an inch.

NCST8GUY said:

I remember decades ago when they called 4-6 and got a trace. I don't want to say "death threats" lol, but people were ANGRY!!! lol. They seem to almost completely discout the ULL at this point. I don't think they would risk that after what weather folks went through a few years ago by missing it by 1/8th of an inch.

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Thats what a lot of people dont understand about weather forecasting sometimes it is really hard to tell what exactly is gonna happen even this close to the event. Its always safer to go low though and thats what all teh NWS and TV folks will do cause thats what will happen 8 out of 10 times we see this setup........

However with the colder air aloft ratios will be 12-15:1, so for every .10" of QPF we will see around 1.2-1.5" of snow....so if the models that show max QPF at .20" for the storm are right then 2-3" would be the max anyone should expect and with some of it mixing with rain to start 1-2" is much more realistic....but if in the last 12 hrs or so leading up to the event the trough does end up way more negative and the ULL cuts off or a coastal low does form then we see QPF values jump to .40-.50" QPF and all of a sudden this is a major winter storm. If this was spring or summer and the difference was between .20" and .40" of actual rain no one would care one bit if the NWS or TV mets got it wrong.....and honestly its not uncommon for rainfall totals to vary quite a bit....however in this setup .20" of QPF one way or the other is the difference between a 1-2" event and a 3-6" event.

Guessing the energy for this is what went through The Dallas area last night/today and they were calling for 2 or 3 inches and there is nothing on the ground here now. We got in yesterday morning and it was pretty nice. Suppose to be chilly chilly today and tomorrow


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It will be interesting to see what we actually get here in the triangle with the storm moving in from the west. Historically we don't get much if any snow from moisture approaching from the west but normally results as moisture laden fronts move up from the south and run into arctic air. This is also part of the reason we are prone to more sleet & freezing rain than snow as warmer air aloft controls what form the precipitation falls as. Then again this could be another repeat of the January 2000 storm that dumped more than 20"...but that is seriously doubtful.

what is the consensus this morning?

Homebrewale, what are your folks thinking?

weather channel has went up to 3-5 inches for Eastern Wake Co.

Current snow cover. Crazy!!!!




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oldest school said:

what is the consensus this morning?

Homebrewale, what are your folks thinking?

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From the mets this morning:

Confidence has increased significantly in regards to the potential snowfall event we mentioned on Friday. We now have high confidence that snow will move across the majority of the state beginning in the mountains as early as 7 to 9pm tonight and working eastward overnight and continuing through the day tomorrow. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the majority of counties across the state.

As an upper level jet streak intensifies in favorable positioning early tomorrow morning, the area of snow is expected to expand and intensify from along or just east of the Triad to Charlotte corridor through the Triangle/Fayetteville and eventually Rocky Mount region. It appears that the Triangle to Rocky Mount Corridor will see the longest period of enhanced snowfall, and thus accumulation totals in this region are expected to be a little higher, generally 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts. Outside of this corridor a general 1 to 3 inches is likely to fall across most of the state, with exceptions being along the coast where rain will mix in at the onset of the precipitation, and further west in the shadow of the Appalachians where the band may break up some before redeveloping along and east of the Foothills.

Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly as snowfall begins across the region as temperatures will quickly fall below freezing once the snow begins. Tomorrow night, temperatures behind the departing system will fall well into the teens creating slick and treacherous roadways across the state overnight and through Thursday morning. Temperatures should rise into the upper 30s on Thursday afternoon, and along and with sunny skies this will promote significant melting at that point.

It is very helpful to me to have that detail. Thanks a bunch Homebrewale.

Mets say you may need to add an additional inch to the previous forecast.

This system has been over performing and wouldn't be surprised to see someone north of raleigh end up with 6 to 8 inches or more.

Man I don't know what I'd do without y'all that are on the up and up with the weather stuff. I don't know what half you're talking about, but it sounds good and I can look forward to in depth explanations on what we have to look forward to, or not look forward to. Y'all keep it up and everybody stay safe and warm, whatever we get.

Bring it on boys. Keep adding to it.

Looks like the weather channel is moving more towards a rain event that changes to snow. Won’t that cut totals?



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LOL, I watched the 6 am wral weather this morning. I watched the 6 PM wral weather this evening. WOW!!! They were joking about 4% of X inches this morning, and now it's 30+% of the same 12 hours later.

I want to know if North Florida, Bama etc have a chance at any flakes tonight or tomorrow?

Also, serious question,

As far as forecasting winter weather, how complicated is either our region, or the state of North Carolina? Imho, I'd say it has to be near the top of the list. It seems we ALWAYS have the rain/snow freezing/above freezing line in our region for EVERY snow event. Am I wrong?

be glad when it is over so the weathermen can tell us how much we got lol.

Sunday morning, my wife and I had an early flight to catch. She booked the tickets so she got the window seat and I had to sit next to a stranger. Walking down the aisle, looking for my row, and what do you know, Brad Panovich is sitting in the seat next to me. We talked for the better part of the hour-long flight. He was headed to Breckenridge for a meteorologist conference with weather channel guys - Jim Cantore, etc. He wasn't expecting it, but said if the storm turned into much, he might get called back from his "conference" (cough, cough, ski trip). He said a few years ago they were at the same conference and they all got called back. He was doing a live shot one day from Breckenridge, and then live shots with the weather channel guys of the same snow storm the next day in Charlotte.

Really cool guy by the way. He's a big skier and has a snow machine in his back yard!