Winter weather?

Banjo

Old Mossy Horns
#64
Van Denton said this evening that is looking to be more of an ice event in the triad. He changes his prediction daily.


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Shaggy

Twelve Pointer
#65
Van Denton said this evening that is looking to be more of an ice event in the triad. He changes his prediction daily.


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Models are iffy on upper air temps. The warm nose is a real risk that could chop deep into the forecast totals. If it goes to sleet what would be 8 to 10 of snow becomes a big sloppy mess.
 
#67
In other news im torn here. Ive been dyin to deer hunt in the snow butttt.... i still have over 500 acres of soybeans to pick. My grandpa was right a dry year will scare ya but a wet year will ruin ya!
Not me this time...there is still a lot of beans in the field in my area, unfortunately lots of cotton(that really sucks..weight has been lost, reduced grades meaning less money), and peanuts that are lost(i.e. not worth harvesting!!!). Said another way..a dry year will hurt you, a wet year will kill you. And that can happen during the early season, too. About a month ago a neighbor dug some strips of peanuts in some fields to see what they looked like. Pitiful!!
 

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#69
Not me this time...there is still a lot of beans in the field in my area, unfortunately lots of cotton(that really sucks..weight has been lost, reduced grades meaning less money), and peanuts that are lost(i.e. not worth harvesting!!!). Said another way..a dry year will hurt you, a wet year will kill you. And that can happen during the early season, too. About a month ago a neighbor dug some strips of peanuts in some fields to see what they looked like. Pitiful!!
We got our cotton out before thanksgiving and actually had a decent crop though it was nothing like the estimated 3-4 bale cotton it woulda been before Florence hit it. Had to bushhog about 10 acres that stood underwater. Beans are good this year 40-50 bpa just need to get this last bit out asap, playin in the mud tryin to, all thats left after that is ditch and tree mowing season with the long reach mower. Neighbor has peanuts that have been dug since before halloween so i doubt he’ll try to pick em. Last farmer i worked for has been pickin peanuts since october near nonstop and still likes 2000 acres
 

tarheelshooter

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
#70
Start 12 hour shifts on saturday afternoon until who knows when. Hopefully it won’t stick around too long,but the ot will surely be nice.
 
#71
Have the brothers posted any accumulation guesses yet? I’ve seen a couple from different places. Some fall for foot+ around Greensboro and up to Granville county, others call for much much less.


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GSOHunter

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
#72
Have the brothers posted any accumulation guesses yet? I’ve seen a couple from different places. Some fall for foot+ around Greensboro and up to Granville county, others call for much much less.


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Depends on where the sleet line falls.
 

Shaggy

Twelve Pointer
#75
Have the brothers posted any accumulation guesses yet? I’ve seen a couple from different places. Some fall for foot+ around Greensboro and up to Granville county, others call for much much less.


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Man this is a hard storm for forecasters. The potential for sleet mixing in is really high. If it does someone who is forecast to get a foot might end up with half that amount. On te flip side someone will remain all snow and someone around Asheville and that area is going to get a foot or 2.
 

downeastnc

Twelve Pointer
#76
Have the brothers posted any accumulation guesses yet? I’ve seen a couple from different places. Some fall for foot+ around Greensboro and up to Granville county, others call for much much less.


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Man I hate it for the met offices around here with this storm.....there are so many things that can make this go from anywhere between literally the biggest snowstorm in living memory or a sleety mess with 6-10" of snow/sleet. Honestly as good as the weather models are, its super tough to know how this will play out, this will come down to the wire and what we call now casting......during the morning and midday tomorrow we can see where all the players are and compare them to where they had the players now and try to see which model runs had it closest.....a lot of it will come down the the warm nose of air aloft that big strong lows have and how far that pushes inland....this will warm the air aloft and give you sleet here are a few soundings showing that....first a bit on how to read these first off the bottom is the ground and the top is way up there, generally 300 MB is 30-35k feet so 100-200 mb would be 40-60k basically the part of the atmosphere where all the weather happens....the black line I highlighted is the 0 ( freezing ) line to the left of this line indicates below freezing in the air column to the right is above.....the red and green lines are DP and Temp...when those lines all run together the atmosphere is saturated ( rain/snow/sleet is forming )....in the first sounding its a heavy snow sounding for north of Charlotte....later the low is closer and we see that warmer dryer air aloft so the switch to light sleet happens....

so nice cold column saturated well into the snow growth region equals heavy snow notice the column doesnt get near the black line meaning all snow and it runs together indicating saturation from 15-20k feet up to the surface....

gfs_2018120706_fh54_sounding_35.55N_81.15W.png

This one is for the same area several hrs later shows a dryer column and a bit warmer and shows the column warming up and touching, almost crossing the freezing line....this is a sleet sounding, if the column crossed the black line then came back left of the black line or below freezing again before reaching the surface then that would be sleet or freezing rain.

gfs_2018120706_fh66_sounding_35.60N_81.31W.png



Again though no matter what I feel like folks along and west of I 77 in NC are going to get a significant winter weather event.....this is NC though and 6" counts as a significant event lol.....still though right now there is a equal chance that some places get 15-20" of pure snow or 5-8" snow and then switch over to sleet on top of that....either way those places way out west get hammered with something frozen for most if not all of the event.....

I-77 to I-95 well its a nightmare to try and forecast that as again this air mass is not really that cold, if this was a month from now this would be the biggest snowstorm to hit the state since Mar 1980 but its not and this cold air is what is known as continental polar not deep arctic/Siberian...that plus the low track are making this extremely hard to get right and there will be places that get way less than forecast and a few spots that get way more.....

This of course is subject to change exactly where the high and low is will determine it all and it will come down to being now casted....but generally the western third of NC will get significant winter weather probably enough to cripple everything.

The central third is the biggest ? and it can go several ways but the Triad down to CLT will get a lot of winter weather and depending on how it mixes will make a big difference.....same for RDU though they will mix for sure as it looks now and lose a lots of snow potential to sleet mixing.....

Eastern third is all rain except right along I-95 where a few inches of snow and sleet might fall but surface temps should prevent any real issues though if its a few degrees colder then obviously problems will ensue.....everyone in eastern NC might start as sleet snow all the way towards to the coast but surface temps will be to warm and it will quickly change to all rain.
 

downeastnc

Twelve Pointer
#80
This is the latest run of the FV3 which is what is replacing the GFS next month....now this shows ptype blue/snow pink/IP ZR green/rain

If this plays out like this then its a MASSIVE hit for 80% of NC...though surface temps in central and eastern NC are still at or just above freezing......a once in a lifetime type event out west.....again this is potentially the biggest snowstorm to hit in at least the last 25-30 years out in western NC since the storm of the century in Mar 1993, it snows for almost 2 days straight though only 12 hrs or so are going to be heavy....still lol.....

g5QIWfp.gif
 

QBD2

Old Mossy Horns
#82
View attachment 23055
This is what we got from our manager yesterday at work...I hope it's a joke but I am a Federal employee and this is fairly standard operating procedure for us. :)
Sounds exactly like a lot of forecasts I've heard over the years. We always hear it's 'to early to tell, might, maybe, if'...
Blah blah blah, get it right...or stfu!
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
#83
This is the latest run of the FV3 which is what is replacing the GFS next month....now this shows ptype blue/snow pink/IP ZR green/rain

If this plays out like this then its a MASSIVE hit for 80% of NC...though surface temps in central and eastern NC are still at or just above freezing......a once in a lifetime type event out west.....again this is potentially the biggest snowstorm to hit in at least the last 25-30 years out in western NC since the storm of the century in Mar 1993, it snows for almost 2 days straight though only 12 hrs or so are going to be heavy....still lol.....

View attachment 23056

well I'm heading out in the AM heading west by southwest and will drive right throught that mess,,probably meet up in northern Alabama,,,,,yeeee haw!!
 
#85
Funny to see differences in forecasts. Most I’ve seen are getting more intense yet the weather app on my phone is all but passing it off as a heavy frost I’ll be in a tree or in a big bulldozer safe from rain either way, looking for antler


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