Winter weather?

turkeyfoot

Twelve Pointer
#2
You know how that goes week out they calling 5-6 inches by time wknd gets here may be dusting. I don't mind bit if snows just no ice please I have work next 13 days and don't wanna do it with no electric
 

Shaggy

Twelve Pointer
#7
Foothills,triad and mtns look really good for a big storm if models have the right idea. Raleigh would be a sloppy mess and east of 95 probably all rain. Still a long ways out so lots can change.
 

HotSoup

Six Pointer
#8
Looks like the grocery stores must need a good push to end 2018. Milk and bread companies working overtime right now.....

Geez....the ground is warm, never going to stick around even if it does. But id LOVE to hunt in a good snow
 

lasttombstone

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
#11
Weather has never been an issue to me. Nothing I can do about it so just adapt. Back when I was working it was just something else to slow you down a little but the warden said you would be there regardless. At least there weren't as many idiots around Raleigh as there are now. Where did they all come from? Now, it's no big deal. I can get out in it if I want to or just stay by the fire.
 
#13
anyone that enjoys these events need help.
or share their secrets so the others can feel excited.
PITA to me.
Let’s see:

Usually fishing can be hot during a storm. Can really see deer in the woods better with snow on the ground. Finding deer beds and trails is easy so scouting results in more recon.
 

dsink

Six Pointer
#14
Looks like the grocery stores must need a good push to end 2018. Milk and bread companies working overtime right now.....

Geez....the ground is warm, never going to stick around even if it does. But id LOVE to hunt in a good snow
It want be by the time this weekend rolls around. Supposed to be cold the rest of this week. Also, dont forget about the big snow we had the first week of December last year. Everyone said it was going to be a dusting and the ground was to warm. We ended up with 6" of snow on the ground and the roads were covered.
 

302cj

Twelve Pointer
#15
Weather has never been an issue to me. Nothing I can do about it so just adapt. Back when I was working it was just something else to slow you down a little but the warden said you would be there regardless. At least there weren't as many idiots around Raleigh as there are now. Where did they all come from? Now, it's no big deal. I can get out in it if I want to or just stay by the fire.
They came from New York Ohio and California!
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
#16
Let’s see:

Usually fishing can be hot during a storm. Can really see deer in the woods better with snow on the ground. Finding deer beds and trails is easy so scouting results in more recon.
you are dead on the first one. second best day I ever had on badin due to a snow stormstorm that arrived while we were at badin. we quit when the snow and sleet started building up on the piers.
helped lead to my friend's divorce but I had fun. :)
I bug my neighbor annually by walking out to the pond and catching them during the snows if I am home. Drives him nuts.
and I was just telling a today the great mid morning hunt I had in standing beans one December during a real snow.

But those things are a piss in the bucket to the travel and mobility issues these storms bring. People lose money ; hell even their lives in this crap. so no snow suits me fine. I have too many folks that I am responsible for impacted by a storm.
 

downeastnc

Twelve Pointer
#17
The lows that are going to become this storm are just now getting onshore on the west coast.....models rely on data input from the ROAB network ( basically airports, and weather balloons launched from numerous places in the US and Canada ) that sample the atmosphere......so when these storms get onshore the surrounding air is well sampled and the models go from educated guessing to predictions with real skill.....by Thursday there should be a good idea of who what and where the biggest totals are going to be......does look like a lifetime event possible in the mts/foothills.......2ft plus like totals.....
 

turkeyfoot

Twelve Pointer
#20
The lows that are going to become this storm are just now getting onshore on the west coast.....models rely on data input from the ROAB network ( basically airports, and weather balloons launched from numerous places in the US and Canada ) that sample the atmosphere......so when these storms get onshore the surrounding air is well sampled and the models go from educated guessing to predictions with real skill.....by Thursday there should be a good idea of who what and where the biggest totals are going to be......does look like a lifetime event possible in the mts/foothills.......2ft plus like totals.....
Surely I'm reading this wrong are you saying 2 feet.dang if it ain't my weekend to work can't catch break
 
#22
In other news im torn here. Ive been dyin to deer hunt in the snow butttt.... i still have over 500 acres of soybeans to pick. My grandpa was right a dry year will scare ya but a wet year will ruin ya!
 

downeastnc

Twelve Pointer
#23
Surely I'm reading this wrong are you saying 2 feet.dang if it ain't my weekend to work can't catch break
Sure a lot of the clown maps are throwing down what would be snowfall records for many places.....realistically 12-20" over the foothills and mts seems doable.....east of there well it can go a lot of different ways.....could be sleet/snow/rain mix at times and temps are not super cold so it a marginal type setup and there are so many variables up in the air I hate to even post on it which is why I have been laying off it.....models should have a much better handle on it tomorrow into Thurs.....

Here is the latest clown map from the new "improved" version of the GFS that is going to replace the GFS next month.....this is the latest run from 6pm this evening so the latest and greatest guess...basically a foot of snow or more for everyone in the western half of NC.....

I just realized not everyone might understand the "clown" map term....we call them "clown" maps because using them to predict the outcome can make you look like a clown.....
fv3p_asnow_eus_22.png
 

Shaggy

Twelve Pointer
#25
is this saying the triangle is getting over 10 inches of snow?!

no way the ground is even cold enough.
That's not a problem. If it snows as hard as the models imply it will pile up big before it ever has a chance to melt. The ground temps would only matter if this was going to be a minor event. It's not it's got the potential to be huge for someone in the foothills and towards the Virginia border.
 

downeastnc

Twelve Pointer
#27
is this saying the triangle is getting over 10 inches of snow?!

no way the ground is even cold enough.
Ground temps wont matter and this is still 4 days away......I have seen it snow 3-4" a day after it was 75 degrees, rates and duration are what matters.....

West of RDU looks good as of right now for a major storm......again though its still way to soon this thing is walking a fine line between snow and ice.....most maps we post convert 1" of rain into 10" of snow....models are showing 1-2" of precip for western Carolinas.....sleet however coverts at 1" of rain to 2" of sleet....so some places showing 15" of snow could end up with 6" of snow with 1-2" sleet on top, there are lots of ways this could play out.....the crazy high snow totals require little to no mixing/switch overs to sleet etc....we are still 3-4 days away and it could easily trend warmer etc and I wouldn't be surprised if by Friday this was much ado about nothing outside the mts....not that I am predicting that just that there is enough time for major shifts in models enough to take this from monster snowstorm to just another rainy day.....
 

Shaggy

Twelve Pointer
#29
let's hold on to that trend warmer deal. Thanks for the info downeatsnc.
If it phases too soon then the warmer deal would be in play as that would pull the low further north. Its long range 84hr nam so it's not in it's best tine frame but its colder than the more popular global models as well. So is it on to something with the temp profiles?

Tomorrow into friday will be the make it or break it days as far as all the energy pieces should start getting over land. Lots of room for this to trend stronger and warmer.