Winter Weather thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
That time of the year again, this could be a interesting and busy year for winter weather.....already the pattern is looking more blocky this year meaning more and persistent east coast troughs which if that is the case means more cold and more coastal type lows which the models are already hinting at....in fact the last GFS runs have had a very early winter weather event in parts of NC.....this is highly unusual and frankly has a very low chance of actually occurring.....still many folks dont have their mind on this given the fact it was 80 degrees 3 days ago lol.....at the very least it looks like a good albeit cold rain event on tap for next weekend....also this type of overall pattern is pretty typical for us this time of the year cold fronts with a storm then a few really cool to cold days slowly warming up to the 60's maybe 70 then a warm day right before a front then wash rinse repeat....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
I know for our ML opener this coming Sat gonna be high in low 40s low in lower 20s perfect deer weather
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
NWS says above normal temps average percip for the winter.
Leave it at that DENC. and tell us how hot and dry winter shall be. :)
 

firedawg60

Eight Pointer
From our local meteorologist for western NC:

Super cold air is on the way next week. Temps could plunge into the teens and 20’s for lows and daytime high temps could only be in the 30’s. The big change will start Tuesday. Have your homes cold weather prepared by Tuesday November 12th.

Don’t believe the snow maps you are seeing right now. It varies greatly from model to model and run to run within the same model. It really depends on the arrival of the cold air that is coming and when/where a gulf low develops, if it rides the front North, or a coastal low may develop that takes the precipitation off shore. Anything from rain, snow, and/or ice is on the table. It’s something we will be working on in the coming 6 days.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
From our local meteorologist for western NC:

Super cold air is on the way next week. Temps could plunge into the teens and 20’s for lows and daytime high temps could only be in the 30’s. The big change will start Tuesday. Have your homes cold weather prepared by Tuesday November 12th.

Don’t believe the snow maps you are seeing right now. It varies greatly from model to model and run to run within the same model. It really depends on the arrival of the cold air that is coming and when/where a gulf low develops, if it rides the front North, or a coastal low may develop that takes the precipitation off shore. Anything from rain, snow, and/or ice is on the table. It’s something we will be working on in the coming 6 days.
Yeah a big shot of cold air coming down, going to be well below normal.....some models are spitting out a snowstorm mid next week.....mainly west of RDU.....its early in the year for a measurable snow but this is a really cold airmass so we shall see.
 

Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Yeah a big shot of cold air coming down, going to be well below normal.....some models are spitting out a snowstorm mid next week.....mainly west of RDU.....its early in the year for a measurable snow but this is a really cold airmass so we shall see.
I've got company coming from Florida to hunt ML opener with me next week so this sounds like a heck of a welcome for them.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I've got company coming from Florida to hunt ML opener with me next week so this sounds like a heck of a welcome for them.
The latest GFS run keeps most of NC sub freezing from Wed morning till Friday afternoon....that is pretty much unheard of for Nov.....temps only in the upper 20's for highs on Thurs, that's well below normal for JAN/FEB lol......
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
From our local meteorologist for western NC:

Super cold air is on the way next week. Temps could plunge into the teens and 20’s for lows and daytime high temps could only be in the 30’s. The big change will start Tuesday. Have your homes cold weather prepared by Tuesday November 12th.

Don’t believe the snow maps you are seeing right now. It varies greatly from model to model and run to run within the same model. It really depends on the arrival of the cold air that is coming and when/where a gulf low develops, if it rides the front North, or a coastal low may develop that takes the precipitation off shore. Anything from rain, snow, and/or ice is on the table. It’s something we will be working on in the coming 6 days.
You won't have wait till ties gonna be cold as welldigger Fri and Sat
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah some models are showing snow even outside the mts next week, the chances of that panning out are slim overall but one thing for sure everyone is going to get a very cold rain.....still there could be some snow or ice even in central or eastern NC if some of these model outputs are right....measurable wintery precip in Nov in NC is a pretty rare thing, when it does happen its usually a dusting to a inch of wet sloppy snow/sleet....still there have been a few storms that put down 3-6" in Nov outside the mts.....speaking of which parts of the mts could see 4-6" with this.
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
no weather guru but I am in coastal LA and woke up to 30+ mph winds and cold

that arctic air mass will push down into the plains, then drift east

gonna be COLD

maybe it will push some ducks our way!!
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Were gonna see some light stuff no real laying most likely mixed with some sleet for short period then gone I'm off hoping for aloud snow in high country its opening week Bkackpowder and I'll be in tent rather have snow than ice/sleet/cold rain
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Typically cold chasing rain doesnt work for us here when it comes to winter weather. This fronts precip will be anafrontal which means the rain will be behind the first front but before the big rush of cold.

Raleigh NWS doesnt even mention any anything about the chances while morehead city says rain should be gone by the time the cold comes in.
 

lasttombstone

Kinder, Gentler LTS
Contributor
Had some of the biggest snow flakes I have ever see for about 20 min. right after about 10 minutes of sleet around lunchtime.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Going to be a pretty stout coastal storm starting tomorrow into Sunday, there could be a few days of big north wind and tides on a already battered OBX.....even inland a ways we could see gust 40ish...the coast could see gust to 60-70 and the sound side flooding on Ocracoke etc will not be welcome.....also 2-4" of rain as well.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The latest wind estimates from the NWS, also the surge projections are getting very troublesome for the sound side of the OBX most notably Ocracoke...

"As the gradient winds spread across eastern NC expect sustained winds to increase to 20-30 kts inland and 30-40 kts over the coastal areas with gusts as high as 60-70 kts possible."
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This from a buoy offshore, pretty sure that gust is some faulty equipment if not the buoy must have took a hit from a tornado...


5-day plot - Wind DirectionWind Direction (WDIR):NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind SpeedWind Speed (WSPD):36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind GustWind Gust (GST):116.6 kts
 

flathead977

Eight Pointer
How much rain is coming in for the northern part of the state, up into Va Saturday? I'm hunting in a drizzle but waiting it out on all day downpours.
Thanks
 
Top