winter weather 2.0

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Tropical tidbits showing snow for big part of N.C. for Wed Jan 23 and Tues Jan 29....long way out but keep those dates in mind.
Yeah the fv3 destroys the I95 corridor up north with a couple of feet. Not sure I like the look on the models for areas east of 95 here in NC
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
I have 9 cardinals 5 blue jays and red bellied woodpecker eating in back yard pretty sight in winter wonderland
 

roundball

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Agree...no question a lot of natural events have some beautiful aspects to them...ie: hard to beat a fresh 6" wet snowfall that has all the tree limb covered
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Hope everyone electric on didn't seem to bad around here for list power considering the amt ice we got call me a happy fella got things need do today
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Hope everyone electric on didn't seem to bad around here for list power considering the amt ice we got call me a happy fella got things need do today
Yeah models started backing down on totals Wednesday into Thursday and did pretty well as far as snow or freezing rain earlier in the week.

The cmc model was way overdone showing .75 of freezing rain for yalls area. Luckily that model was way off.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The euro weeklies for later in the month are cold and the gfs has some ridiculously cold temps in the long range. No big storms but a few glimpses of snow showers. They are modeling to cold as it would be pretty record breaking cold especially for you western guys.
 

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Long range looks bitterly cold so get ready we are talking lots of single digits and teens starting in 7-10 days....and there are lots of potential for winter weather but nothing specific really.....sometimes these big arctic blast are pretty dry for most of us since a NW flow is generally dry and it keeps the storm track suppressed to our south. Still the models hint at several threats.....the cold air is the focus though we are talking -30 to -40 in the midwest and GL's and that air is heading here it will modify but we could go 3-4 days below freezing with that shot of air if it pans out.

I was just posting that Shaggy lol.....intense cold on tap it looks like
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Still looking good for the big pattern change, models tend to always get them done faster than what it actually takes for the long wave pattern to change but the big storm the next few days will buckle the flow enough to get it going. So by mid next week we should see a turn to seriously cold weather with multiple days below freezing. Lows could get single digits and high only in the 20's mean frozen pipes etc.....there are also probably going to be numerous chances at winter weather over a several week period as well.
 

Crappie_Hunter

Ten Pointer
Contributor
News said this morning it's going to be 61 Wednesday.... But then again you ask 5 weathermen what the weather is going to be tomorrow and you're bound to get 5 different answers :rolleyes:
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
we need 71 to really get the winter bite rolling.
or to make those of us in pursuit of the winter bite more comfortable. :)
Those of you with a small or semi protected place to fish try Sunday afternoon when those winds are howling. Fish the windiest place you can present a bait in.
You can thank me later.
and thus another foray into non weather forecasting.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
News said this morning it's going to be 61 Wednesday.... But then again you ask 5 weathermen what the weather is going to be tomorrow and you're bound to get 5 different answers :rolleyes:
There is a large storm system thats going to hammer areas to our north and anytime the low center goes NW of you its going to warm up on the south flow around that low.....there will be a cold shot on the backside of that low Sun/Tues but the next storm system is also going to stay NW of us so we will see a few warmer days after that.....that storm will finish changing the long wave pattern and we will enter into a more prolonged much colder period......

This is a bit extreme probably but we could get within 5-10 degrees or so of these temps. if we manage some snowvover then this is likely correct...this is for 10 days from now

gem_T2m_seus_41.png
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Ain't that truth in 10th days it'll change 4 times. As far as the cold its Jan its good thing to be cold these spring like days we get are rough on the turkey fever
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
10 days from now - about as accurate as a coin flip.
Again you dont take any one model at face value at that range, rather you look at all of them and the overall indexes like the PDO, PNA, AMO, MJO etc....that is pretty accurate in the 10 day range for large scale features and overall pattern evolution. The map I posted could easily be off by a few days at that range....the thing that seems certain is a turn to a more prolonged winter pattern with extended periods of very cold weather.


GFS a bit warmer has main arctic blast several days later ( should be noted there is some problems as some of the NOAA and NWS folks are part of the shutdown )
fv3p_T2m_eus_41.png

The Euro has temps well below zero in the mts and single digits all the way to the coast.....
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019011812_240_5750_210.png
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
I'm just relaying what one of my office meteorologists said. He stated the 10 day correlation was about 0.45. I can't recall what model. I said that's about the same as a coil flip. He said yeah.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Their expecting massive snow in Binghampton soon.

I have noticed that since I've lived up here, we never get snow when we have the real freezing cold. It's always at least in the 20's. And the rain snow line is always within the state it seems.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Their expecting massive snow in Binghampton soon.

I have noticed that since I've lived up here, we never get snow when we have the real freezing cold. It's always at least in the 20's. And the rain snow line is always within the state it seems.
Bitterly cold air usually means NW flow which is typically a dryer flow in the US unless you live on the west coast....are you in Binghamton NY? If so then you in for it this weekend and next week you will certainly be bitterly cold by NC standards and even NY standards....
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
10 days from now - about as accurate as a coin flip.
I first mentioned the dec 9th storm to someone as early as November 27th I believe. You're 100% right it's not good to go on a 10 day model but that doesnt mean they're useless and shouldnt be looked at or analyzed.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
are you in Binghamton NY? If so then you in for it this weekend and next week you will certainly be bitterly cold by NC standards and even NY standards....
Negative but I have property and family up there and I was supposed to be up there this weekend but it got postponed. The last "good one" they got was 2 winters ago. 35 inches at my mom's place, she was worried her deck might collapse from the weight. It was the ONLY time their McDonalds was closed in over 15 years.

And about the 10 days out thing, I think Conman here and lots of weather guru's predicted super storm Sandy 9-10 days before landfall.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Negative but I have property and family up there and I was supposed to be up there this weekend but it got postponed. The last "good one" they got was 2 winters ago. 35 inches at my mom's place, she was worried her deck might collapse from the weight. It was the ONLY time their McDonalds was closed in over 15 years.

And about the 10 days out thing, I think Conman here and lots of weather guru's predicted super storm Sandy 9-10 days before landfall.
The 240 cumulative snow totals for NY are pretty stout. Again it's a 10 day projection so it could be more or less. The pattern is set for some monster storms up there. Heres the map.
 

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Negative but I have property and family up there and I was supposed to be up there this weekend but it got postponed. The last "good one" they got was 2 winters ago. 35 inches at my mom's place, she was worried her deck might collapse from the weight. It was the ONLY time their McDonalds was closed in over 15 years.

And about the 10 days out thing, I think Conman here and lots of weather guru's predicted super storm Sandy 9-10 days before landfall.
Yeah good thing you are skipping going up this weekend. Sandy was well modeled 10 days out, as was the 1993 march Superstorm...usually those big monster triple phasers are, your moms place might be pushing 30-35" by the of the current model cycles.....most show close to 30" in her neck of the woods though its several storms over 4-7 days.
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
I am working in Boston and normally we fly up on Sunday and back on Thursday. With Monday being a holiday for our client, we are flying Monday evening instead. Looks like that is going to be a good thing. Not looking forward to the cold, it was pretty bad last week up there and the folks were saying it wasn’t that bad.


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