winter weather 2.0

old school

Six Pointer
I should be getting home about now, along with 12 others, from our 15th year of goose hunting Maryland and Delaware. Our 2 day trip was for yesterday and today, but we got the dreaded call on Saturday night not to head North. We made the 23rd & 24th days of cancellations this season on Snows.The guide said he has hunted 6 days and none consecutive, with poor shooting. When the geese get together it's been on farms with no access because of excessive weekly rains. Worst season he has ever had and seems to get later every year, pushing back times when he used to be booked starting Thanksgiving week. Mighty big financial hit too when you consider close to 6 thousand in fees and tips, 6 rooms for 2 nights, at least 6 meals and bar tabs for 13 guys, license fees maybe in both states, down time browsing to all the Eastern Shore sporting haunts, gasoline and tolls, etc. Yep, they lost the revenue but worse is we lost the memories....
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Six Pointer
I should be getting home about now, along with 12 others, from our 15th year of goose hunting Maryland and Delaware. Our 2 day trip was for yesterday and today, but we got the dreaded call on Saturday night not to head North. We made the 23rd & 24th days of cancellations this season on Snows.The guide said he has hunted 6 days and none consecutive, with poor shooting. When the geese get together it's been on farms with no access because of excessive weekly rains. Worst season he has ever had and seems to get later every year, pushing back times when he used to be booked starting Thanksgiving week. Mighty big financial hit too when you consider close to 6 thousand in fees and tips, 6 rooms for 2 nights, at least 6 meals and bar tabs for 13 guys, license fees maybe in both states, down time browsing to all the Eastern Shore sporting haunts, gasoline and tolls, etc. Yep, they lost the revenue but worse is we lost the memories....
What part of the E shore?! That’s where I grew up
 

GSOHunter

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Not liking the new models. Shows the freezing line right at the top edge of Guilford county. I'd much rather get 6-8" of snow than 1/2 to 3/4" of ice.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Not liking the new models. Shows the freezing line right at the top edge of Guilford county. I'd much rather get 6-8" of snow than 1/2 to 3/4" of ice.
The cmc is not one of the best models but its outcome would be devastating icing event for Charlotte up to Raleigh. Shows over .75 to .88 inches of freezing rain. Right now other models are also showing the threat for very significant icing versus snow. Could be bad if the icing threat materializes.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
so I always appreciate those of you that are good with these situations.
For a host of reasons I am very interested in the timing of precip Saturday for Greensboro Burlington mebane corridor.
so when yall figure it out please advise.
you have until noon Friday. LOL.
And I am serious, I have more faith in homebrewale and shaggy and downest than normal channels.
 
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GSOHunter

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
so I always appreciate those of you that are good with these situations.
For a host of reasons I am very interested in the timing of precip Saturday for Greensboro Burlington mebane corridor.
so when yall figure it out please advise.
you have until noon Friday. LOL.
And I am serious, I have more faith in homebrewale and shaggy and downest than normal channels.
Don't think its really a Saturday problem. Timing looks similar to the last storm.
 

old school

Six Pointer
Y. Greenhorn we stay at Kent Island and hunt Md. and DE. . Send me a P.M. if you like sometime. Don't want to interfere with The Weather Channel talk going on here which is more important. Be careful creeping around in the slippery stuff folks while we folks back East take on more water. Be safe!
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Long range forecasts are weather porn which some people like better than the real stuff.
It's not really long range. The models are certainly less snowy and showing more ice but even then the gfs switches almost everyone outside of the mountains to rain.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
It's not really long range. The models are certainly less snowy and showing more ice but even then the gfs switches almost everyone outside of the mountains to rain.
This thread started on Monday, 5 days before the Saturday predictions. Maybe that isn't long range to you but I've seen enough missed 5 day predictions over the years to say I'm not relying on anyone's prediction that far out.
 

roundball

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
All the reporting now showing this moving further north.
Nothing but "cold rain" forecast for the Raleigh area, temps only getting down to 33* / 34*.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
This thread started on Monday, 5 days before the Saturday predictions. Maybe that isn't long range to you but I've seen enough missed 5 day predictions over the years to say I'm not relying on anyone's prediction that far out.
Yeah 5 days is a stretch with winter weather or really any storm but the models are useful in that range. At leastfor showing large scale patterns and possibilities......they lack the details though.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This thread started on Monday, 5 days before the Saturday predictions. Maybe that isn't long range to you but I've seen enough missed 5 day predictions over the years to say I'm not relying on anyone's prediction that far out.
Typically long range refers to 8 days or more out, 4-7 days is generally considered mid range and 1-3 days is short range. I agree no one should put a lot of faith in anything more than say 5 days out.

Models tend to do poorly with in situ CAD events which is what this next setup will be....this could easily still be a decent ice storm for a lot of NW NC and maybe even as far east as the Triad....it probably wont be a major ice storm but with the next few days being very cold the ground and roads will be cold soaked and it wouldnt take much.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Was worried you'd say that
Looks close to snow to me but there may be enough warm air to switch you to sleet or freezing rain. At the height of the precip your surface temp looks like 28.

IF it's raining moderately at that temp at the right rate that spells big trouble for ice accrual.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
I love how they brined our roads starting yesterday, when the weather has straight up called for rain in our area until Monday. lol
 
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