winter weather 2.0

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Mainstream media is saying nothing but my phone weather app has a snowflake on March 5th.

No local weather person is going to play up a day 8/9 threat..they might give it a passing mention like " march could start off cold and maybe a little wintery", they have several days before they need to start talking about it. The thing that sets this system apart from all the others the last few months is that pretty much all of them agree there will be a significant and strong push of cold air in a configuration allowing for good cold air damming ( CAD ) that would put all of NC cold enough aloft for snow. Then they all have a storm riding up out of the GOM and off the SE coast...how these things all interact will determine who gets what. There has been a lot of disagreement in the models this winter with cold and storms in the SE and so when they all agree like this it causes all us weather geeks to raise our eyebrows.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
Most professional meteorologists don't have much concern for threats 8 to 9 days out but amateur meteorologists seem to like going on internet forums and post about them.
well as bad as I may hate his messages downeastnc has been ahead of( known to me) experts on major events.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Most professional meteorologists don't have much concern for threats 8 to 9 days out but amateur meteorologists seem to like going on internet forums and post about them.

They do have concern they just dont go on TV or official channels and talk about it ....I am on several weather forums with bunches of pro mets that LOVE to talk about these threats....

well as bad as I may hate his messages downeastnc has been ahead of( known to me) experts on major events.

I am not ahead of any of them, they just dont go public this far out with threats as a rule....there is not one single met in NC that does not know the Euro just ran a big snowstorm for NC next week......they just know that its a low confidence forecast at this range....though the model agreement gives this a better chance of verifying versus the other storms that had less agreement...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Channel 11 teased a little a 6:00

Yeah we are inside of 7 days, most models have it snowing by Sunday afternoon.... again so much can change and what looks like a really solid threat now could fade away or warm up and be a rain event etc.....for what it is worth this is what the model output is for the storm....its been fairly consistent though there are shifts in heavier snow total areas run to run but thats to be expected this far out..

25795

25796
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Uk and euro models moving towards a cutter which has been happening all year. This one is still way up I the air.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What's a cutter mean?

So different low tracks have different names.

Cutter is a low that cuts up through the central US towards the great lakes.

An App runner is one that runs up the spine of the appalachians.

A nor'easter is one that runs up the east coast

A southern slider is one that cuts through the south states and instead of turning north up the coast just goes east out to sea.
 

45/70 hunter

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Ahhh, thanks. Of those I only knew the Nor'easter. We had epic snows from those when I lived near Syracuse.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
And years ago we heard the term Alberta Clipper used a lot by the weather dogs but not so much anymore.

Alberta clippers move southeast out of alberta at a high rate of speed hence the name clipper. They usually suck for us east of the mountains.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models back to rain now?

Well yes and no.....the models have two "waves" of low pressure or the models are just having trouble with getting the timing right on one main wave so we see them running two storms when there will only be one.

Still as it is they do show it as mostly rain Sun/Mon its the storm Tues/Wed that if it was any closer would be a huge snowstorm for central and eastern NC that is the ???? and this is all liable to change again some as we get closer. Either way its gonna get cold and wet.
 

302cj

Old Mossy Horns
Well yes and no.....the models have two "waves" of low pressure or the models are just having trouble with getting the timing right on one main wave so we see them running two storms when there will only be one.

Still as it is they do show it as mostly rain Sun/Mon its the storm Tues/Wed that if it was any closer would be a huge snowstorm for central and eastern NC that is the ???? and this is all liable to change again some as we get closer. Either way its gonna get cold and wet.
i hoping for snow!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sun/Mon looks to be rain, the real question is the second wave, the first storm is going to pull the cold air down behind it setting the stage for any other storm that gets in here being frozen.....the models have this second storm suppressed offshore, now typically storms trend NW as we get closer to the event ( the Sun/Mon storm for example ) so thats the one to watch and this means that eastern NC then central NC have the best chance at getting snow.
 
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