Why Boom then Decline after Restocking?

[QuietButDeadly]

From what I have read, it seems to be generally accepted that the turkey population will continue to expand for several years following a successful restocking. But is also seems to be accepted that the population will reach a point where it will start to decline rather than just stabilize.

Many have noted areas that once had thriving populations that are now in decline and we have spit balled a number of factors that we think might be contributing to the decline. We also see areas that did not have great turkey populations that appear to be in the boom phase now but we seem to expect that those areas will peak out and start to decline as well.

Do those that have studied the turkey population swings have a reasonable explanation supported by data as to why we should expect this to occur? Is this a cycle that is bound to continue regardless of what we try to do to prevent it. Is it something inherent in wild turkey biology causing this or is it the turkey version of the predator/prey cycle like rabbits and their predator cycles? Or is it something else?

Other states seem to be further along the curve of decline than NC as a whole and they are taking action to reduce harvest but I have not seen any data that proves overharvest is the problem. More like we have to do something.

Anybody seen any studies that explains why the boom/bust cycle for wild turkeys?

 

[oldest school]

From what I have read, it seems to be generally accepted that the turkey population will continue to expand for several years following a successful restocking. But is also seems to be accepted that the population will reach a point where it will start to decline rather than just stabilize.

Many have noted areas that once had thriving populations that are now in decline and we have spit balled a number of factors that we think might be contributing to the decline. We also see areas that did not have great turkey populations that appear to be in the boom phase now but we seem to expect that those areas will peak out and start to decline as well.

Do those that have studied the turkey population swings have a reasonable explanation supported by data as to why we should expect this to occur? Is this a cycle that is bound to continue regardless of what we try to do to prevent it. Is it something inherent in wild turkey biology causing this or is it the turkey version of the predator/prey cycle like rabbits and their predator cycles? Or is it something else?

Other states seem to be further along the curve of decline than NC as a whole and they are taking action to reduce harvest but I have not seen any data that proves overharvest is the problem. More like we have to do something.

Anybody seen any studies that explains why the boom/bust cycle for wild turkeys?

there are more articles than anyone cares to read published on the topic. You can start with NWTF archives or just look at threads that hal has started here on this turkey forum.
The old standbys have info on their websites OL and F&S. Practically every state game divison has info. And if you really want a diverse discussion from hunters you can visit ALdeer, TNdeer and GON forums.
Souuth Carolina.s turkey discussions on their SCDNR pages are a good start. Charles Ruth knows his stuff and is a good salesman as well- getting some serious method and season and bag limits in place. He can be found in archived Carolina sportsman mags as well.
He is a big believer in overharvest early as being a kiss of death in his state. Thus the restrictions and season and bag changes in SC.

 

[QuietButDeadly]

And if Mr. Ruth's belief's (big believer-your words) was proven and accepted science several other states would be following the lead of SC as well and making radical changes to season dates and limits. Yes, I know some adjustments are being made.

But the fact is that the population was still growing up to a point within the framework of early seasons and high limits. He may have had the same beliefs when the population was growing but no one cared since the population was expanding. If he is correct, we should see a change in the population trend pretty quick but until then, it is just another theory of what the problem is.

It is my belief that there is an underlying issue that has yet to be identified and proven that is driving the population cycle of the wild turkey. YMMV

 

[oldest school]

Well you asked for the articles so I gave you the resources- sounds like you have formed a conclusion based on your mileage- mine indeed does vary.

 

[jug]

I honestly think the birds have better habitat overall in the areas where they are booming. The predators have had years to figure out where to go for an easy turkey dinner up in Caswell plus they simply don't have the habitat. Here in my part of Harnett, I got hay fields, wheat fields, cutovers with very little mature hardwood timber and Harnett almost beat out Rockingham County. Up in my part of Rockingham we got pockets of good habitat which makes it easier for predators. Here in my part of Harnett a predator got to work hard to find a turkey during poult season. Not so hard to find them up there at the Rock. All the hens are gonna be at the same hay fields or any new cutover which is very few. Since turkey season i have got 3 huge 50 plus acre cutovers and several pine thinnings here in Harnett.
There is no rotation of field crops up there like here in Harnett or Bladen and Duplin. They just don't have the farmland like what is down this way.
I think the biologists were way off when they were trying to figure out how adaptable the wild turkeys are. I think it took them longer to adapt down in the Sandhills and Down east but now they are flourishing. I expect alot of folks will be leaving the Northern Piedmont to hunt down East the next few seasons.

 

[Tipmoose]

Good gracious I don't think I've ever seen the level of handwringing I'm seeing over this turkey business. Has anyone, anywhere, actually proven that there are fewer turkeys in NC now than there were 10 years ago?

 

[woodmoose]

Good gracious I don't think I've ever seen the level of handwringing I'm seeing over this turkey business. Has anyone, anywhere, actually proven that there are fewer turkeys in NC now than there were 10 years ago?

Aw man,,,, wanting facts,,,, buzz kill

 

[YanceyGreenhorn]

Good gracious I don't think I've ever seen the level of handwringing I'm seeing over this turkey business. Has anyone, anywhere, actually proven that there are fewer turkeys in NC now than there were 10 years ago?

Yes they have. Well, if you use the data from my recent census where 3 dudes at the general store said they “just ain’t seent em like we did ten year ago.”

wait a minute…ten year ago. That was 2012. During the Obama years. Obama done boogered up our turkey numbers !

 

[Firedog]

Good gracious I don't think I've ever seen the level of handwringing I'm seeing over this turkey business. Has anyone, anywhere, actually proven that there are fewer turkeys in NC now than there were 10 years ago?

Come on now Tip.. you know that you don't actually need to understand if there really is a problem or what the cause is... you just need to DO SOMETHING its for the children you know.

 

[timekiller13]

I’ve said it before.

During restocking and for several years after, you see an artificial inflation of the population. For obvious reasons.

The birds then spread out/disperse and the population falls in line with what the landscape can handle.

It’s really not that hard to figure out.

 

[Lucky Clucker]

It don't make.sense why they explode from 15 to 20 turned out every 6 miles or so in around5 years the whole place is full of turkey. But you get turkey everywhere for years then they stop making way more overlapping from other areas etc. It is because we kill more than anything. A closed season and boom. After a few years of hunting.its slim pickings.Turkey hunting is way to cool and easier than it was just a few years ago,better camo.blinds decoys and ammo.social media bragging rights have ruined it.I. sure more than half killed was over bait or very close to some. You never see so many people kill turkeys now a days that can't even run a call or learned from a mentor. Blinds bait,planted field and $300 worth of decoys is all they need now. How many 3 and 4 year old kids you know that can properly hold and shoot a gun.not many.Ive raised 4 son's and share take show and teach as best I can about hunting.guns.shooting etc. Neither of them were safe or could properly hold and shoot without a vise until 6 to 8 . without my help,just saying,. I love hunting.and taking kids .and teaching them. Turkeys are not going to thrive as we wish as we hunters multiply faster than they do. Not really a cure for it. Delayed seasons and bag limits dropped,Might sound good But poachers don t listen to start with.Stop bearded hen and Jake harvest ,isn't best theory but gives a chance at more poults and next year longbeards. Shorten youth season to 2 days. Then wait 2 weeks for regular season.

 

[ol bob]

When a hen has 12 to 15 hatch, and between 0 and 2 make it I'm sure its humans killing the rest.

 

[Mike Noles aka conman]

It would really be interesting to get a comparison study of birds released on public hunt areas vs private hunt areas and the rise or fall of the conflicting flocks. My personal opinion is that habitat management, hunting management, predator management and availability of birds to hunt (easy vs hard) have a serious impact on whether a flock maintains it's numbers or declines. Just my humble opinion and my very limited study of these birds.

 

[ol bob]

I also wonder if anyone has done a study on what impact inbreeding has on a flock, it sure can't help them.

 

[Aaron H]

What the heck......... I guess I'll pitch in my thoughts though I'm hardly qualified to comment. I did once work for the NCWRC trapping turkeys in the Pisgah National Forest back about 1970 so formed some opinions way back then with the guidance of Wayne Bailey who certainly was a turkey expert. For turkeys to thrive and expand they need really good habitat and big land. Their way of feeding is a walking traveling way that gradually changes as they seek "fresh" feeding areas. This is what keeps them healthy, they don't feed over and over on the same spots which would expose them more and more to their own waste droppings as well as that of other critters. Many of us hunt relatively small land which in part accounts for one season hearing lots of gobbles and then some years nothing.... they move around. Turkeys need cover for nesting, grown up fence lines are a favorite but modern mowing practice has eliminated much of this. Haying season destroys many nests and some hens all around where I live. Predators play a part but in the mountain counties there are all of the predators that eat turkeys and eggs yet large flocks exist. Predators become a larger issue on farms where "clean" farming is done. If we remove vital cover predators become focused on what little remains. The use of chicken litter for fertilizer is popular but can be deadly to turkeys. Along with increased use of pesticides and herbicides the habitat in many places has been adversely impacted. If we kill all of the grasshoppers the poults will have less to eat. On any given GOOD turkey range there are a limited number of gobblers to do the breeding. If we go there and shoot 2 birds, then take the kids, the cousin, that old uncle and his best buddy pretty soon what was a healthy age mix of turkeys is grossly affected. One season like this can impact that excellent habitat for years. My opinion.... we are our own worst enemy in the hopes for turkey expansion. In the modern day land is hugely expensive and many large pieces get cut up for development. If we find a hot spot we tend to "shoot it out" thinking next year will be just as good. Turkeys are not whitetails.... it don't work that way. Food plots can help but can't replace the wide open country that turkeys evolved on. As the Piedmont falls more and more into houses and other development the turkeys will become squeezed onto tighter habitat. The pockets of large land and good habitat will lose turkeys as well if they are over hunted. We tend to think that as long as there are hens and one gobbler that the birds will keep going but that's not going to happen. The original question, looking for studies on this complex situation I have not offered and won't. My thoughts are based largely on what I have witnessed over the last 40 years in this part of Chatham County. I've seen woods where no turkey steps and then seen those same woods begin to hold turkeys. On the 3 places that I hunt the birds I exercise great restraint, taking not more than one gobbler off of a property each spring. Leaving those robust gobblers in the woods tempts me some to return for a second bird but I hunt elsewhere. Each year I see mature gobblers and taking one does not hurt the flock.... but taking all of my buddies along to kill a turkey would. "Social hunting" is one of the big threats to turkey survival I believe.

 

[GUP]

“Turkeys are not whitetails.... it don't work that way.”
For the life of me, I’ve been trying to explain this to some of the folks my area. Might as well be taking to a tree!

 

[QuietButDeadly]

I also wonder if anyone has done a study on what impact inbreeding has on a flock, it sure can't help them.

This is a thought I have had also as I am not familiar with how turkeys disburse. Could this be a significant factor in a period of decline after many years of expansion?

Most wild animals have some mechanism for dispersal to keep the gene pool refreshed to some extent. The VA study referred to earlier touched on this a little but it also mentioned groups of hens being from the same hatch and groups of jakes from the same hatch as well. It sure seems like lots of probability of significant inbreeding could occur over a decade or two.

 

[woodmoose]

Most wild animals have some mechanism for dispersal to keep the gene pool refreshed to some extent. The VA study referred to earlier touched on this a little but it also mentioned groups of hens being from the same hatch and groups of jakes from the same hatch as well. It sure seems like lots of probability of significant inbreeding could occur over a decade or two.

you all may have something, especially when you factor in older birds getting killed and thus not forcing jakes/2 year olds to "go a wandering" to find some (any??) hens to have fun with,,,,

better than my bug idea anyhow,,,

 

[hawglips]

I wonder if one thing that plays into it more than it is given credit for might be this. In the initial years after a restocking, the predators are not yet educated and skilled as to the best ways to capitalize on the new wild turkey food source. Theoretically, Once they figure out how to start keying in on turkey nests the production starts taking a corresponding dive as more and more hens and or their clutches and their broods are targeted as a food source and are more effectively hunted and preyed on by the Coons, snakes, crows, hawks, possums, skunks, etc.

 

[woodmoose]

I wonder if one thing that plays into it more than it is given credit for might be this. In the initial years after a restocking, the predators are not yet educated and skilled as to the best ways to capitalize on the new wild turkey food source. Theoretically, Once they figure out how to start keying in on turkey nests the production starts taking a corresponding dive as more and more hens and or their clutches and their broods are targeted as a food source and are more effectively hunted and preyed on by the Coons, snakes, crows, hawks, possums, skunks, etc.

Valid concept

 

[georgeeebuck]

I wonder if one thing that plays into it more than it is given credit for might be this. In the initial years after a restocking, the predators are not yet educated and skilled as to the best ways to capitalize on the new wild turkey food source. Theoretically, Once they figure out how to start keying in on turkey nests the production starts taking a corresponding dive as more and more hens and or their clutches and their broods are targeted as a food source and are more effectively hunted and preyed on by the Coons, snakes, crows, hawks, possums, skunks, etc.

And what would be the solution, but killing the predators ?

 

[billyf]

And what would be the solution, but killing the predators ?

SD has good plan for this. They attempt to remove 5000 coon/foxes/etc by paying $10/tail.. per year.

 

[georgeeebuck]

SD has good plan for this. They attempt to remove 5000 coon/foxes/etc by paying $10/tail.. per year.

Yep good idea . To make a dent in the coon/fox/skunk /grinner etc. population in NC we would have to increase the price per tail and have a budget of multi million dollars .

 

[30/06]

I’ve said it before.

During restocking and for several years after, you see an artificial inflation of the population. For obvious reasons.

The birds then spread out/disperse and the population falls in line with what the landscape can handle.

It’s really not that hard to figure out.

Not going to argue with that but doesn’t explain why the areas that the birds were trapped from has seen a huge decline with little habitat change.

 

[woodmoose]

with little habitat change.

How much management did it take to ensure no habitat change over 20-30 years?

 

[QBD2]

How much management did it take to ensure no habitat change over 20-30 years?

Kills me. Always hear that the habitat hasn’t changed. Habitat is always changing.

It changes considerably from year to year, and the changes over 20 years are massive. The only constant in habitat is CHANGE…

 

[30/06]

How much management did it take to ensure no habitat change over 20-30 years?

Didn’t say no habitat change, said little. Land is still a mix of old/new cuts, pasture, hardwoods, and crops.

I’d think to see the declines that some areas have seen there would need to be some substantial changes to land use to cause birds to virtually disappear. My opinion, worth what ya pay for it, is something beside habitat is causing this issue. Plus even if there are habitat changes to a certain extent animals are adaptable.

 

[georgeeebuck]

Not going to argue with that but doesn’t explain why the areas that the birds were trapped from has seen a huge decline with little habitat change.

I agree , I don't think the decline is all habitat change . Does not habitat change in both positive and negative directions for the turkey population ?

 

[woodmoose]

I agree , I don't think the decline is all habitat change . Does not habitat change in both positive and negative directions for the turkey population ?

Sure it does

I expect it’s centered on poult survival - but then I’m not a biologist either

But every biologist i have talked to on quail, turkey and such say it’s habitat not predators

all I know is most hunters, especially turkey hunters, don’t put a significant dent (if any) in the predator population

 

[timekiller13]

Not going to argue with that but doesn’t explain why the areas that the birds were trapped from has seen a huge decline with little habitat change.

It’s the ebb and flow of nature.

I hunted Alleghany county back in the boom of turkeys up there. 70-100 bird flocks. Then, the WRC trapped a bunch and relocated, and hunting pressure increased, and increased predators. I remember in just 10-12 years (late 90s- 2010) going from seeing 100 birds a day to seeing just 10-15.

Now, things have changed again up there. No issues seeing 50-60 birds a day. Groups of 10-20 gobblers. The WRC hasn’t restocked. The predators haven’t decreased. It’s just the birds have adapted and the population has risen again.

Guess what? It will fall back down again.