The stock market

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
A buddy and I were talking yesterday about should we look into any US oil affiliated companies. I mentioned SandRidge (SD ticker). Told him before yesterday's close that my charts didn't look right for a buy.

Just looked at todays gains and I want to slam my finger in the door frame for a while :(.
 

MJ74

Old Mossy Horns
A buddy and I were talking yesterday about should we look into any US oil affiliated companies. I mentioned SandRidge (SD ticker). Told him before yesterday's close that my charts didn't look right for a buy.

Just looked at todays gains and I want to slam my finger in the door frame for a while :(.
It's only up 64% ....[emoji13]

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
So somehow, Chipotle CRUSHED it's Earnings last night!! I mean CRUSHED!

One thing I wonder if it will become a permanent change to some places might be related to "my hypothesis" (as I have not listened to their earnings call, so I don't know what they stated).

Let's say Chipotle or company X (restaurant related), has cut staffing by 70% to only serve curbside or delivery orders. Lets say the same company has only lost 35% of their revenue, which means overall, the cuts have ended up MAKING the company $ during this era. They might be so inclined to stop paying overhead on the large "eat in" areas, and switches to delivery or take out/curbside only in the future. Fewer employees to pay, less insurance, less overhead, and eventually, probably gaining 90+% of the revenue back as America shifts from eating in places to eating at home or the office or in their truck (not advised if getting Chipotle!).

Dominoes Pizza switched to this platform years ago, and has dominated pizza places with dine in areas.

If this trend continues, I will very much miss Hooters, Tilted Kilt, Twin Peaks and most of all, Redneck Heaven :(. THese places have more "atmosphere" than great menu's (although Hooters steamed oysters are if well cooked top notch, and Tilted Kilt's menu is actually extremely impressive).
 

MJ74

Old Mossy Horns
I can see some restaurants going to take out only, but there will always be some sit down places.

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Let's say Chipotle or company X (restaurant related), has cut staffing by 70% to only serve curbside or delivery orders. Lets say the same company has only lost 35% of their revenue, which means overall, the cuts have ended up MAKING the company $ during this era. They might be so inclined to stop paying overhead on the large "eat in" areas, and switches to delivery or take out/curbside only in the future. Fewer employees to pay, less insurance, less overhead, and eventually, probably gaining 90+% of the revenue back as America shifts from eating in places to eating at home or the office or in their truck (not advised if getting Chipotle!).

Yes, but that's artificially driven demand. Demand for take out is no doubt higher than it's ever been, but there's a government mandate for consuming only take out. When things go back to normal, consumers will adjust their habits back to their prior preferences, and business will adapt.

Everyone wants to talk about the new normal, but I'm not buying it. Barring another unnecessary government shutdown, I believe businesses will be right back where they started within 6 months. Just like people who go on a diet for 6 weeks gain it all back and then some. I don't believe the general public has made lifestyle changes, they've just been forced to go on a dine-in "diet".
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
i dont think it'll be so quick for any part of the economy. But i am biased seeing the west texas oil debacle.
Realize as well there is a huge junk of this country that does not want anything positive till after November.
DUMB congresswoman aoc happy of the oil collapse.

it's like 9-11- things arent going to be the same post corona. maybe be better who knows but wont be the same.
huge gathering events? airlines taking out the middle seats? Public sector employment?
Different not back to normal before march,. imo.
Except for dining options. I hope. Tired of take out food. :)
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
it's like 9-11- things arent going to be the same post corona.

When I think of the permanent changes due to 9-11, they are mostly (all?) directly related to security. Not lifestyle or consumer choices. I don't believe people quit flying on airplanes, the authorities just changed the security measures. I think the same will apply here.

Apparently many people never thought about how they might pick up a virus. This one is transmitted pretty much the same as all other viruses. I think we may see different safety measures related to communal areas, large gatherings, public transportation, and retail sanitation, but I don't think the "what" or "how" of commerce will change significantly. The massive shift to online shopping which has been occuring over the past decade just gained even more momentum. I hope they don't turn airline seats backwards, but I'd be happy with a few more inches between seats.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
wonder why gas is currently so much cheaper in NC than SC. Been going down there every week for awhile and it's cheaper up here> Why is that? I thought our gas taxes kept us always higher?
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
wonder why gas is currently so much cheaper in NC than SC. Been going down there every week for awhile and it's cheaper up here> Why is that? I thought our gas taxes kept us always higher?


our tax is higher but been seeing the same thing as you

not sure what's causing it - suppliers maybe? Anyhow, best place for me right now is a small (tiny actually) "Sun-Do" on Hwy 74 just before you get to Laurel Hill,,,,they have anyone beat in my areas unless I head north - then Sanford area wins,,,

travel safely!
 

LIZZRD

Eight Pointer
Wrecked my truck some about 2 weeks ago, waiting for Ins. to decide if they are going to total it our not.
My experiences through the years you end up losing $ most of the time. … anyway after putting some money back in stocks when DOW was a bit less than 20k , I pulled out $40k out late today, back to money market for a new vehicle or not.
I think the market will be going back down before it gets much better in the short term.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Yes, but that's artificially driven demand. Demand for take out is no doubt higher than it's ever been, but there's a government mandate for consuming only take out. When things go back to normal, consumers will adjust their habits back to their prior preferences, and business will adapt.

Everyone wants to talk about the new normal, but I'm not buying it. Barring another unnecessary government shutdown, I believe businesses will be right back where they started within 6 months. Just like people who go on a diet for 6 weeks gain it all back and then some. I don't believe the general public has made lifestyle changes, they've just been forced to go on a dine-in "diet".


Yes but it's the market/lifestyle that sets the demand. If we become a nation fearful of sitting on a chair or in a booth we didn't see get wiped down, getting hadned plated from an ungloved waitress, wanting to put 6 people to a table of 6....? If those options are off the table for a year or more? I think/fear the American attention teeny tiny span will grasp hold.

NO ONE wants to go back to having "family" dinners 7 nights a week (cheek in tongue sarcasm), but if Americans get used to it, it'll take ANOTHER pandemic and crazy something to FORCE us to get back out into the community and spread it rather than hide from it.

IMHO.
 

Scrub

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Yes, but that's artificially driven demand. Demand for take out is no doubt higher than it's ever been, but there's a government mandate for consuming only take out. When things go back to normal, consumers will adjust their habits back to their prior preferences, and business will adapt.

Everyone wants to talk about the new normal, but I'm not buying it. Barring another unnecessary government shutdown, I believe businesses will be right back where they started within 6 months. Just like people who go on a diet for 6 weeks gain it all back and then some. I don't believe the general public has made lifestyle changes, they've just been forced to go on a dine-in "diet".

As long as this things around without a good treatment or vaccine nothing will go back to normal. Businesses will not go back to where they were in 6 months and many small business won’t be back. Fridays job report is going to be staggering you wont put 20-25million people back to work in 6 months. There will be a good percentage of the population that will view this as a wake up call and become more frugal with their cash. This is an 18-24 month recovery at best and that’s if things all fall in place, that’s my opinion for whatever it’s worth.
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
As long as this things around without a good treatment or vaccine nothing will go back to normal. Businesses will not go back to where they were in 6 months and many small business won’t be back. Fridays job report is going to be staggering you wont put 20-25million people back to work in 6 months. There will be a good percentage of the population that will view this as a wake up call and become more frugal with their cash. This is an 18-24 month recovery at best and that’s if things all fall in place, that’s my opinion for whatever it’s worth.

I hope you are wrong. The people who are out of work are in that situation because of fear and government containment. Remove those two things, and most of them can resume their jobs tomorrow. The government containment can end whenever the governors decide so. The fear will remain until the general populace resumes some sort of normalcy and they realize that everyone isn't dropping dead. That fear will take a few weeks minimum to wear off, given a steady decline in new cases. If the cases jump after reopening, then we stay on this ride for a lot longer.

I understand momentum is a powerful force, as is fear, but I don't believe the majority of job losses are permanent losses at this point. Let it stretch another 6-12 months and they will be. I can say I have never seen sensible people so afraid. It blows my mind that at this point, the majority of citizens continue to want everything to remain shut down. And statistically, it's the older generations leading that charge. Even in rural towns that have very few cases, people are living on a steady diet of fear.
 

Scrub

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
I hope you are wrong. The people who are out of work are in that situation because of fear and government containment. Remove those two things, and most of them can resume their jobs tomorrow. The government containment can end whenever the governors decide so. The fear will remain until the general populace resumes some sort of normalcy and they realize that everyone isn't dropping dead. That fear will take a few weeks minimum to wear off, given a steady decline in new cases. If the cases jump after reopening, then we stay on this ride for a lot longer.

I understand momentum is a powerful force, as is fear, but I don't believe the majority of job losses are permanent losses at this point. Let it stretch another 6-12 months and they will be. I can say I have never seen sensible people so afraid. It blows my mind that at this point, the majority of citizens continue to want everything to remain shut down. And statistically, it's the older generations leading that charge. Even in rural towns that have very few cases, people are living on a steady diet of fear.

I think the markets will plunge again I think we will have another wave of outbreaks. I hope not but just don’t see how it will be avoidable.
 

Nana

Big Ole Nanny
Contributor
I still think the bottom is 15k or so and about six months out. When folks realize the loss of jobs, earnings reports keep flooding in with no earnings, small businesses shutter, AND those of us still working realize exactly what kind of taxes we are going to have to pay to dig out of this hole with a huge chunk of tax revenue gone from both workers and businesses, the market is gonna tank. My greatest fear now is that the folks that want socialism have had a much larger portion than before. And they won't stop. I am actually somewhat irrationally (I hope) concerned about my retirement savings being taken. I never thought that could happen. But I also never thought Americans would so easily give up their rights......

With regard to restaurants moving to the take out model, it depends on the type of restaurant. Some friends own a cool little spot in Washington, NC. They were not doing take out. Basically food and music are just there to draw the folks to buy beer and booze, which is where they make their money. They recently started take out to help keep their staff employed, but they are not making anything like the money they made before.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
I still think the bottom is 15k or so and about six months out. When folks realize the loss of jobs, earnings reports keep flooding in with no earnings, small businesses shutter, AND those of us still working realize exactly what kind of taxes we are going to have to pay to dig out of this hole with a huge chunk of tax revenue gone from both workers and businesses, the market is gonna tank. My greatest fear now is that the folks that want socialism have had a much larger portion than before. And they won't stop. I am actually somewhat irrationally (I hope) concerned about my retirement savings being taken. I never thought that could happen. But I also never thought Americans would so easily give up their rights......

With regard to restaurants moving to the take out model, it depends on the type of restaurant. Some friends own a cool little spot in Washington, NC. They were not doing take out. Basically food and music are just there to draw the folks to buy beer and booze, which is where they make their money. They recently started take out to help keep their staff employed, but they are not making anything like the money they made before.
try 7 months or whenever it is determined or assumed that Trump is out of office.
 

Helium

Old Mossy Horns
I have held sentiment that it will take “forever” for things to go back to normal BUT after my wife has been laid off from Dental and they were expecting to be the last to go back to work due to the “working in people’s mouths “ contaminant possibilities.... I’m shocked to find out this eve that they are going back to work May 9th

that’s a huge and quick about face for ADA and CDC
 

Scrub

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
try 7 months or whenever it is determined or assumed that Trump is out of office.

Hopefully he’s gone he has destroyed the Republican Party IMHO, he's already handed the House to the Dems and will deliver the Senate and the Presidency in Nov......,makes me sick but he will succeed in doing it. Every time the Republican Party has control they turn around and screw it up.
 

pattersonj11

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hopefully he’s gone he has destroyed the Republican Party IMHO, he's already handed the House to the Dems and will deliver the Senate and the Presidency in Nov......,makes me sick but he will succeed in doing it. Every time the Republican Party has control they turn around and screw it up.

What if we are seeing a new party and the dying Republican Party.

I’m wondering if a new party has risen and did it under the Republican guise? No one is really voting for Republican values....almost like the Tea Party or some other has risen up quietly.
 

Scrub

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
What if we are seeing a new party and the dying Republican Party.

I’m wondering if a new party has risen and did it under the Republican guise? No one is really voting for Republican values....almost like the Tea Party or some other has risen up quietly.

You have to control the chambers in order to govern your values. So if it has risen it’s too weak to win enough seats to garner a majority. This is a flash in a pan that’s cost the Republican Party IMHO. We will see in a few months and the Tea Party proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan.
 

ABolt

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Unemployment reaches highest level since the Great Depression, virus deaths continue to rise, Stock Market rockets upward...
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
Unemployment reaches highest level since the Great Depression, virus deaths continue to rise, Stock Market rockets upward...

Stock market is supposed to reflect what investors think of financial conditions will be months out, not yesterday, today or tomorrow. They must be viewing the opening of economy in many states as a positive.
 

pattersonj11

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
You have to control the chambers in order to govern your values. So if it has risen it’s too weak to win enough seats to garner a majority. This is a flash in a pan that’s cost the Republican Party IMHO. We will see in a few months and the Tea Party proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan.


You are missing what I was referring to. I’m saying it looks like a major swing in what has been referred to as the GOP. Still using the same name....but there is a difference between many within the same party. It looks like there is a surge of conservatism and moving further to the right. The traditional GOP members are now viewed as RINOS. I don’t think they have changed, I think the party expectations have changed.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
I think some of us here have different views of conservatism. Today it means conservative social values. They don't give a darn about being financially conservative. I'm a financial conservative. I am not lock in step with the conservative social values. So I would be viewed as a RINO by many today.
 

ABolt

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Stock market is supposed to reflect what investors think of financial conditions will be months out, not yesterday, today or tomorrow. They must be viewing the opening of economy in many states as a positive.
I'm fully aware of that. I just find it interesting that investors think financial conditions (such as employment) will be vastly improved in a few months. Heck, United Airlines just announced that they will BEGIN layoffs in October...
 
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