Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Gotta a sinking feeling this thing is gonna try and pull a fast one on us, it will be approaching landfall this time tomorrow night and well many folks are expecting a small weaker system but its showing a lot of hints that its wanting to go nuts.....if the negatives keeping it in check relax to much we could have a for real strengthening cane coming in....

Outflow is improving dramatically the last several hrs and the LLC and MLC are much less tilted....I would not be surprised to see this thing pop a eye and be a 80-90 mph hurricane by 11am tomorrow morning....it just has that look right now like if something does not check it up soon its off to the races.

outfl.jpg
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
my crew in Brunswick GA are battened down,,,all training cancelled but Center still open (no evac order),,,,here's to a smooth day
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
I'd expect widespread TS force winds and gust as high as 65 to 75 near the center or near water.

Fast mover so east side shouldnt see too much rain but guys wets of the center could get some serious 4 to 6 inch totals.
 

Soilman

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Well, on current path, it looks like I'm in the bull eye...again. How are these things getting my address every time I move?
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
Gotta a sinking feeling this thing is gonna try and pull a fast one on us, it will be approaching landfall this time tomorrow night and well many folks are expecting a small weaker system but its showing a lot of hints that its wanting to go nuts.....if the negatives keeping it in check relax to much we could have a for real strengthening cane coming in....

Outflow is improving dramatically the last several hrs and the LLC and MLC are much less tilted....I would not be surprised to see this thing pop a eye and be a 80-90 mph hurricane by 11am tomorrow morning....it just has that look right now like if something does not check it up soon its off to the races.

View attachment 48191
:panic::panic::panic::panic::panic:
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@wanchese not sure angle if winds and severe flooding there first you guys but as the system moves north well to your west I'd be concerned about a long south to Southwest wind.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
The tri state area with their 40-50 MPH gusts will get all of the weather channel's high profile shots and "fercasters".

They are going to dramatize a weak TS around NYC way more than what actually happens in the Carolinas.
 

acman

Button Buck
years ago my family was at wrightsville beach and a storm was on the way. my wife asked if we needed to go home I told her only if jim cantore shows up. the next morning i look out the window and guess who is on the beach outside of our window ? I told her to pack QUICK . true story.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Getting some 110 mph winds just off the surface in the SE corner of the center, he has maybe 4 more hrs to deepen before landfall....but he is strengthening and pressures are falling so he will hold on to those winds well inland as he speeds up.....there will be plenty of 50-75 mph gust over a lot of the I-95 to Hwy 17 Corridor and out over the IBX....also tornado's are ramping up treat every warning as a tornado on the ground cause it probably is....everyone in the impacted area have a safe night.
 

wanchese

Ten Pointer
@wanchese not sure angle if winds and severe flooding there first you guys but as the system moves north well to your west I'd be concerned about a long south to Southwest wind.
Yep, we get screwed on South and Southwest winds. Everyone was moving their vehicles and stuff to high ground today. I thought a lot more boats would of hauled out but the boatyards are empty.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The tri state area with their 40-50 MPH gusts will get all of the weather channel's high profile shots and "fercasters".

They are going to dramatize a weak TS around NYC way more than what actually happens in the Carolinas.
Well wouldnt bet that its gonna be weak up there. Someone along the Jersey or NY shore gusts ton70 to 80mph. Winds just off the surface are 90+ and with dry air mixing it will pull those winds down. This will be a big deal up there.
 

darenative

Ten Pointer
Yep, we get screwed on South and Southwest winds. Everyone was moving their vehicles and stuff to high ground today. I thought a lot more boats would of hauled out but the boatyards are empty.
Yep. Meteorologist are telling me one thing and my gut is telling me another. Keep this biotch to the western
 

Hevi 13. Anson

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Well wouldnt bet that its gonna be weak up there. Someone along the Jersey or NY shore gusts ton70 to 80mph. Winds just off the surface are 90+ and with dry air mixing it will pull those winds down. This will be a big deal up there.
Thanks for everything you and DE posts. Information like this is priceless. Warnings saves lives
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Thanks for everything you and DE posts. Information like this is priceless. Warnings saves lives
This storm is bombing out right now. Some radar velocities of 120mph only 1500 feet above ground. Suspect they may up him to 90mph at landfall.
 

FITZH2O

Twelve Pointer
Well wouldnt bet that its gonna be weak up there. Someone along the Jersey or NY shore gusts ton70 to 80mph. Winds just off the surface are 90+ and with dry air mixing it will pull those winds down. This will be a big deal up there.
Every lineman I know is in the NYC area or on their way tomorrow morning. They are :panic::panic::panic:
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Every lineman I know is in the NYC area or on their way tomorrow morning. They are :panic::panic::panic:
This is actually a legit problem with this system.....its going to HAMMER the entire east coast with 50-80 mph winds and the number of people without people by Wed morning is going to be staggering.....every lineman east of the Miss is gonna be needed.....

Frying Pan Shoals buoy is hitting 100 mph in gust this will be ashore in ILM in a hr.....
 

JoeSam1975

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Shear is the only thing keeping this from being a Cat 2-3 or even higher right now....the fact it is as healthy as it is sitting in 25 knts of westerly shear is frankly amazing....and a testament to how loaded with "fuel" the Bahamas and Gulf Stream waters are this year.....that said that shear is still kicking its ass, you can easily see the streaks of clouds moving east being blown off the tops of storms over western/northern FL.....that shear tilts the center of the TC greatly inhibiting its development.....the LLC and the MLC are not stacked and are still decoupled though not as bad as it once was but this thing will struggle until that can lessen more, which should be another 6-12 hrs. If it slowly strengthens over the next 6-12 hrs then this is one tough SOB......the scary part is that there is a window from tomorrow into landfall for the shear to decrease and turn more SSW which means if there is 20 knts of SSW shear on a storm moving NNE at 15 knts the relative shear is only 5 knts.....and well boom goes the dynamite. Also some other more technical things will be happening like the right front entrance of the jet stream at the base of the western trough will feed into the SW flank of the storm and the expanding ridge over the west ATL will possibly open up what is known as venting and this would also make it likely the storm will be strengthening up till landfall.....and lastly the angle of approach is such that rotational friction on the west side with land while the east side of still over the ocean will probably tighten up the core some more which also will aid in allowing the pressure to drop even as it comes on in...

If you held a gun to my head and told me to make a call right now it would be for a 95-105 mph cane landfalling between MB and ILM moving NNW at 15 mph right up the I-95 corridor.....this would effectively turn out the lights for the entire eastern half of NC.

View attachment 48176
You called it.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sounds like almost record breaking surge in Ocean Island and other locations around Cape Fear, reports of water a few ft below the homes on stilts etc....
 
Top