Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Not to divert this thread,

But was there a Tornado season this year? Through Tornado alley? I don't recall nearly the stories about them as in years past. Could be Covid took over, could be I was busy.

Any idea how this Springs tornadoes compared to previous years?
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Not to divert this thread,

But was there a Tornado season this year? Through Tornado alley? I don't recall nearly the stories about them as in years past. Could be Covid took over, could be I was busy.

Any idea how this Springs tornadoes compared to previous years?
It was a quiet year intirnado alley but Dixie alley and especially SC had a very active tornado season. NC ended up with around 18 tornados this spring mostly in one event.
 

skimmer

Six Pointer
So for the past 24-36hrs the model runs have kept this storm west of the official nhc forecast tract. Today at the 5pm update they finally move the tract west and lower the intensity to align with what the models suggested. Guess this one just wasn't was exciting as they hoped?
 

QuietButDeadly

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
I had considered heading to Ocracoke for a few days next week but did not pull the trigger to make reservations. Glad I did not.

But this is looking more like a rain maker with less wind and I am OK with that. We need the rain. Been thundering almost every day for the last couple of weeks but not enough rain to settle the dust at my house. Looks like that is going to change.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Man that sure was close! This thing has slowed down to 8 mph. I though there for a minute it was come through here in the daytime.
It should be mid morning Tuesday for NC. Everyone east of the center will have a tornado threat as well.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
We are lucky the ukmet is all by itself with the strength of this as it goes up I-95. Had this been a true outcome then this would have been a beast and one to remember. Luckily it's on an island and nothing even comes close to suggesting this is an accurate model outcome.
 

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Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What you thinking for the lower cape fear shaggy, reckon I should get the boat out of the water?
I would. The euro and ukmet both still show a stronger system as it heads north.

What's got my attention is this has maintained quite well under shear that would typically blow it apart. As the storm turns more north and starts moving with the wind shear it will reduce the shear. I still think a 80 to 90mph cane is doable here.
 

302cj

Twelve Pointer
I would. The euro and ukmet both still show a stronger system as it heads north.

What's got my attention is this has maintained quite well under shear that would typically blow it apart. As the storm turns more north and starts moving with the wind shear it will reduce the shear. I still think a 80 to 90mph cane is doable here.
Its gonna have enough time over good water!!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Shear is the only thing keeping this from being a Cat 2-3 or even higher right now....the fact it is as healthy as it is sitting in 25 knts of westerly shear is frankly amazing....and a testament to how loaded with "fuel" the Bahamas and Gulf Stream waters are this year.....that said that shear is still kicking its ass, you can easily see the streaks of clouds moving east being blown off the tops of storms over western/northern FL.....that shear tilts the center of the TC greatly inhibiting its development.....the LLC and the MLC are not stacked and are still decoupled though not as bad as it once was but this thing will struggle until that can lessen more, which should be another 6-12 hrs. If it slowly strengthens over the next 6-12 hrs then this is one tough SOB......the scary part is that there is a window from tomorrow into landfall for the shear to decrease and turn more SSW which means if there is 20 knts of SSW shear on a storm moving NNE at 15 knts the relative shear is only 5 knts.....and well boom goes the dynamite. Also some other more technical things will be happening like the right front entrance of the jet stream at the base of the western trough will feed into the SW flank of the storm and the expanding ridge over the west ATL will possibly open up what is known as venting and this would also make it likely the storm will be strengthening up till landfall.....and lastly the angle of approach is such that rotational friction on the west side with land while the east side of still over the ocean will probably tighten up the core some more which also will aid in allowing the pressure to drop even as it comes on in...

If you held a gun to my head and told me to make a call right now it would be for a 95-105 mph cane landfalling between MB and ILM moving NNW at 15 mph right up the I-95 corridor.....this would effectively turn out the lights for the entire eastern half of NC.

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NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
My Dad was laughing this morning while we talked. He admitted it wasn't any kind of strong "storm" but the fact that it's got a history (didn't just pop up) and was relatively close to Palm Beach this morning, he was shocked that all the beaches were open given the likelihood of rip currents.

He said it was actually a nice day in S. Florida this morning. High clouds and a nice breeze. Of course if today were a normal year weekday, all east FL coast Schools would have been closed. lol.
 

HotSoup

Ten Pointer
We went down to oki and boarded up yesterday. Everyone said we were crazy, with the system that we use it only takes 45 minutes so why not. Rather be safe than sorry.
 

Clark

Six Pointer
OK, so 4 hours each way - do I need to secure the boat in Atlantic Beach tomorrow? Weather channel forecast shows a max 33 mph wind which is not worth the drive....
 

Clark

Six Pointer
Well crap, Windy shows the center west of Goldsboro and I thought that would be far enough inland. Guess I'll see the updates for tomorrow am and get in the truck if needed.
Thanks!
 

skimmer

Six Pointer
Well crap, Windy shows the center west of Goldsboro and I thought that would be far enough inland. Guess I'll see the updates for tomorrow am and get in the truck if needed.
Thanks!
My boat is gonna stay in the water. My dock is really protected with anything from the south so I'm hoping to be ok. If not I will move it farther up the creek to a neighbors
 

darenative

Ten Pointer
OK, so 4 hours each way - do I need to secure the boat in Atlantic Beach tomorrow? Weather channel forecast shows a max 33 mph wind which is not worth the drive....
If it is on the eastern edge of the forecast track it will pick up speed and intensify somewhat...imo. I'd go move my boat. We're more limited in exposure than you are, and both of mine are in the yard
 

Clark

Six Pointer
If it is on the eastern edge of the forecast track it will pick up speed and intensify somewhat...imo. I'd go move my boat. We're more limited in exposure than you are, and both of mine are in the yard
Thanks, boat is on a trailer so not planning to move since I'd just be pulling it into the storm path. Trailer is well chocked. But the cover is fragile and hurricane winds will shred it. Besides, have not eaten at Shark Shack in weeks!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
If it is on the eastern edge of the forecast track it will pick up speed and intensify somewhat...imo. I'd go move my boat. We're more limited in exposure than you are, and both of mine are in the yard
The upside is its moving fast up this way so the surges should be lower than something slower just based on that.....this site shows surge expected with each NHC update as the strength and track change.....right now the north sides of the IBX and sound sides of the OBX look to get it the worse.....

 

darenative

Ten Pointer
Thanks, boat is on a trailer so not planning to move since I'd just be pulling it into the storm path. Trailer is well chocked. But the cover is fragile and hurricane winds will shred it. Besides, have not eaten at Shark Shack in weeks!
If you're on the hill and on high ground, i wouldnt sweat it
 
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