Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Opinions Shaggy/Downeast ? We have a beach house rented on northern obx next week.
Lots of ensemble support for a threat to the east coast. Weaker is more of a Florida or Gulf threat stronger is more of a NC or miss to our east threat. There is the threat it's just a wait and see mode for the next couple days to see where the center actually forms.

Lack of airplane data may also effect modeling. Here are the latest gfs ensembles
 

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Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
This thing has had a hard time organizing. Models still hint at a threat but its a big ole mess right now. A lot hinges on where the eventual low forms and if it's on the southern end of the wave or northern end.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Coastal counties and maybe areas east of I95 should be thinking about preparing. Yard debris and stuffthat needs to be secured. Only 96 hours away and most models show some level of impacts from this now.
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
Dont really want the wind but we need the rain. Been several weeks around here since had any measurable rain. Alot of the corn probably not going be worth picking. Cotton peanuts and soybeans have been hurt but a few inches rain will help those crops
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Looks like they moved it west and slowed it down a tad.
Model consistency has turned into model mayhem. Basically the models now all keep it weak and weaken it from now until landfall over Florida.

The problem is that its currently strengthening albeit slowly.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
Model consistency has turned into model mayhem. Basically the models now all keep it weak and weaken it from now until landfall over Florida.

The problem is that its currently strengthening albeit slowly.
Lets just go with "weak" The last thing we need now is hurricane issues.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Lets just go with "weak" The last thing we need now is hurricane issues.
Yeah the models want to shear it apart and take it into Florida first but still bring it across us as a remnant low. Still need to be paying attention because the angle of Florida's coast and the approach angle means even 50-75 miles east misses Florida and increases our weather.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Watching weathet channel and last loop looked like a more northern turn.
Eye has now closed off and the system is deepening which SHOULD favor some of the further north tracks. Shear is suppose to cut the head off the snake so to speak tomorrow and that will.be make it or break time IMO.

Also of note there is a new radar site for the Bahamas that allows you to track the eye.
 

gesthuntn

Button Buck
Sure looking like we will see some bad weather from this around Monday night or Tuesday.

Sent from my moto g(7) optimo maxx(XT1955DL) using Tapatalk
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
Finally getting good rain Been several weeks with nothing. Raining hard enough satellite tv out right now and not even cussing it. I’m sure some of the farmers reaching in the back of the cabinet bringing out a bottle of the good stuff to drink tonight
 

wolfman

Old Mossy Horns
Finally getting good rain Been several weeks with nothing. Raining hard enough satellite tv out right now and not even cussing it. I’m sure some of the farmers reaching in the back of the cabinet bringing out a bottle of the good stuff to drink tonight
Crazy. I think I've had 5" in the rain gauge this week.
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hatteras island just got an evacuation ordered.
Just wrecked our week. We were halfway there and they send the notice at 11:08 effective 12:00!? Couldn’t have made that call at 8 am, knowing it’s transition day and families would be traveling?

That’s a poor way to handle it IMO. Sitting in Nashville trying to decide whether to drive home or go somewhere else...
 

darenative

Ten Pointer
Just wrecked our week. We were halfway there and they send the notice at 11:08 effective 12:00!? Couldn’t have made that call at 8 am, knowing it’s transition day and families would be traveling?

That’s a poor way to handle it IMO. Sitting in Nashville trying to decide whether to drive home or go somewhere else...
That sucks, and it coulda been handled better. Sorry your vacation got ruined.

Once they call for O'cock to be evacuated, 99.999% of the time hatteras is evacuated 24 hours later. The 24 delay is to avoid a bottleneck with 2 islands worth of visitors leaving at the same time.
I'd expect to see an evac order for the rest of dare county in 24 hours if the storm doesnt change course.
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
That sucks, and it coulda been handled better. Sorry your vacation got ruined.

Once they call for O'cock to be evacuated, 99.999% of the time hatteras is evacuated 24 hours later. The 24 delay is to avoid a bottleneck with 2 islands worth of visitors leaving at the same time.
I'd expect to see an evac order for the rest of dare county in 24 hours if the storm doesnt change course.
That’s what I would assume for a significant storm. This one has been tracking further west with relatively little rain and wind forecasted for Hatteras island. I guess surge is the concern? Ocracoke is what it is and needs special precautions. I really didn’t think they would evacuate the rest of it this time based on the weakening forecasts. Down to a TS now and it hasn’t even gotten to FLA . Eyewall gone. ..
 

darenative

Ten Pointer
That’s what I would assume for a significant storm. This one has been tracking further west with relatively little rain and wind forecasted for Hatteras island. I guess surge is the concern? Ocracoke is what it is and needs special precautions. I really didn’t think they would evacuate the rest of it this time based on the weakening forecasts. Down to a TS now and it hasn’t even gotten to FLA . Eyewall gone. ..
It doesnt take much to wash out hwy 12 north of Rodanthe. It also doesnt take much wind for major soundside flooding on hatteras island if conditions are right. It only takes a small change in the track of most of these storms to go from "we're in the clear" to "holy $^&#% theres 5' of water in the yard and our car is floating". Small track changes also determine what end of the county gets flooded and how bad.
I know its tough to cancel vacation plans, but most of these folks are from outa state that are visiting here and are about as clueless as they can be and would be in harms way in short order.
 
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