Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
View attachment 51037

This is at my daughter's house, also in Apex. About 2 years ago, a similar storm put several dozen dents in her vehicle.

The scans of the storm showed 2-3" hail at 11k feet, thats legit as hell ( hehe ) around here.....wonder if there was any wind associated with it as the velocities on radar were pushing 70+ mph just off the ground.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
Yes, there was quite a bit of wind. Also got kind of eerie with fog forming at ground level. Right now another storm is overhead with heavy rain.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Shaggy, DENC, I know this is a summer/Tropics thread, but I've recenly planted Broccoli, and some other fall stuff. How far out can y'all reasonably predict frostish types of temps? Thanks
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
Looks like the tropics have quieted down a bit.

How long will that last?


we done,,,,

the "epic hurricane season" went the way of other prognostications,,,, into the bin of history to never get brought back up least someone get jaded to the weather "forecasts",,,,

God will do as he does,,,or Mother Nature if that's what you prefer,,,,
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
The work mets have sent us an email warning of storms tomorrow. High straightline winds and tornadoes are the concern.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
we done,,,,

the "epic hurricane season" went the way of other prognostications,,,, into the bin of history to never get brought back up least someone get jaded to the weather "forecasts",,,,

God will do as he does,,,or Mother Nature if that's what you prefer,,,,


Does that mean you're ready for the HISTORIC first freeze?!?!?!
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Shaggy, DENC, I know this is a summer/Tropics thread, but I've recenly planted Broccoli, and some other fall stuff. How far out can y'all reasonably predict frostish types of temps? Thanks

The gfs models go out 16 days and we can see temps. I'll check it out and see what the coolest temps are on the model.

We had some serious rain here a little while ago. West side of Greenville is pretty flooded.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@NCST8GUY this is the coldest morning on the run and it valid for Saturday the 10th low temps. That's quite a bit out so subject to change.

Also have to watch for tropical action in the gulf again.
 

Attachments

  • 20200929_152215.jpg
    20200929_152215.jpg
    85.7 KB · Views: 31

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
@NCST8GUY this is the coldest morning on the run and it valid for Saturday the 10th low temps. That's quite a bit out so subject to change.

Also have to watch for tropical action in the gulf again.

Thanks,

It's 2020, I half figured we'd see a 60 day early DEEP freeze to destroy all the planted crops, then no rain and high temps to spread the fires, lol.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sure looks like another system will form and move into the GOM.....should be a rain maker for us regardless......probably another hurricane/TS hit somewhere in the central gulf coast over to west coast of Florida as it looks now.....then inland up and over NC probably as a rem low similar to Sally....

NHC up to code red with it within 5 days.....most models have it moving NW to NNE into the GOM and then into the SE US......deep moisture down there will bring the pain precip total wise, hopefully it will be a fast mover.

two_atl_5d0.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Sure looks like another system will form and move into the GOM.....should be a rain maker for us regardless......probably another hurricane/TS hit somewhere in the central gulf coast over to west coast of Florida as it looks now.....then inland up and over NC probably as a rem low similar to Sally....

NHC up to code red with it within 5 days.....most models have it moving NW to NNE into the GOM and then into the SE US......deep moisture down there will bring the pain precip total wise, hopefully it will be a fast mover.

View attachment 51369

Well seems 2020 isnt done yet and now forecasting another hurricane in the gulf. Pretty decent high pressure modeled to anchor over the southeast so it should force it west into the gulf. The key to our impacts will be how fast that ridge moves out. If it holds the storm should track more northerly after landfall, and if it moves out then the storm hooks NE and soaks us with more rain a week before season starts.

@woodmoose just seems Louisiana cant escape the threats but theres room for this to shift east similar to sally and landfall over towards Florida.
 

Attachments

  • 20201005_055326.jpg
    20201005_055326.jpg
    119.7 KB · Views: 24

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
just seems Louisiana cant escape the threats but theres room for this to shift east similar to sally and landfall over towards Florida.


dang,,,was heading that way end of this week to visit Daughter in MS and then a club work day to fix blinds that got hammered already,,,,
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
dang,,,was heading that way end of this week to visit Daughter in MS and then a club work day to fix blinds that got hammered already,,,,

Just looking at the pattern I'd expect some east shifts. Think central Louisiana may get lucky.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
our camp is in Southwestern coastal LA,,,,will watch this one

The gefs ensemble is pretty well clustered with a few members that are further southwest. That's something to take note of because the Euro ensembles were over east Texas yesterday.
 

Attachments

  • 20201005_081956.jpg
    20201005_081956.jpg
    99.5 KB · Views: 19

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Hopefully Delta does trend to much east we dont need a bunch of rain a week before season, the upside temps for opening weekend look very nice, though the timing of the front could make rifle opener wet need it to speed up a day and hit Friday, either way temps suggest scattered to widespread frost which would be a week or two early for a lot of NC east of the piedmont at least.....

gfs_T2m_seus_55.png
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
Last thing we need here is more rain. Farmers already running couple weeks behind or more. Last year we were picking cotton around 26 to 28th of September. Looking now middle of next week at earliest before any ready to pick.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that their forecast of 105 miles an hour is going to end up being low
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The gefs ensemble is pretty well clustered with a few members that are further southwest. That's something to take note of because the Euro ensembles were over east Texas yesterday.

When I saw that cluster on the ensembles it stood out. The euro was a western outlier yesterday while the HWRF and HMON were over Alabama and Florida. Those 2 models did great with Laura so I was thinking an eastward shift with a progressive high was looking likely.

The new GFS said nope and went west into central Louisiana as a strong but weakening storm.

@woodmoose sorry man this run is no friend of your Lousiana situation.
 

Attachments

  • 20201005_125441.jpg
    20201005_125441.jpg
    121.5 KB · Views: 17

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
When I saw that cluster on the ensembles it stood out. The euro was a western outlier yesterday while the HWRF and HMON were over Alabama and Florida. Those 2 models did great with Laura so I was thinking an eastward shift with a progressive high was looking likely.

The new GFS said nope and went west into central Louisiana as a strong but weakening storm.

@woodmoose sorry man this run is no friend of your Lousiana situation.


ggrrrrrrrrr,,,,

I used to like you,,,,,,,,

gonna be a wet drive
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
ggrrrrrrrrr,,,,

I used to like you,,,,,,,,

gonna be a wet drive

I still expect an east shift at some point man. This time of year recurve into the westerlies will happen just dont know when. I was surprised by the west shift on the GFS.

It looks ripe to explode into a powerful hurricane too. Wouldn't be surprised to see 125 to 140mph storm at some point.
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
I still expect an east shift at some point man. This time of year recurve into the westerlies will happen just dont know when. I was surprised by the west shift on the GFS.

It looks ripe to explode into a powerful hurricane too. Wouldn't be surprised to see 125 to 140mph storm at some point.


just keep talking,,,,, I KNOW where you fish,,,,,,,,, :cool:
 
Last edited:

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Sorry @woodmoose the Euro agrees with the GFS low to mid 960mb hurricane for the central Louisiana coastline...........*ducks and runs*
 

Attachments

  • 20201005_150432.jpg
    20201005_150432.jpg
    133.4 KB · Views: 21

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
that green x is where I am supposed to be Friday night,,,,to do marsh work Saturday,,,,,

SMDH,,,,,,,,

20201005_150432.jpg
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
that green x is where I am supposed to be Friday night,,,,to do marsh work Saturday,,,,,

SMDH,,,,,,,,

View attachment 51658

Damn that's no good right now. Only positive is you're on the westside and any east shift takes weather away from that area. On the second point the ensembles shifted west with more members heading towards Texas and western Louisiana.
 

Attachments

  • 20201005_164001.jpg
    20201005_164001.jpg
    108.4 KB · Views: 21
Top