Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Not looking good for New Orleans. Even if it does stay weak and below 100mph its angle of approach and very slow movement is gonna create alot of surge and a ton of rain to a city that's below sea level.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@woodmoose think yall will get by ok. Seems the Mississippi delta to just east of there seems to be the target area. Slow mover so heavy rain would be the biggest threat west of track.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Models correcting east as they get a better handle on intensity. If it blows up too much it could turn quite a bit earlier and be more towards Alabama/Florida hit and then heavy rains later as it passes by to our south.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Either way Sally looks to drop quite a bit of rain over NC....me and Shaggy were sadly contemplating the impact all that rain will have on the skeeter's down on our club.....

Another interesting thing noted on some of the latest runs is a broad area of storms off the SE coast that the models try to organize into a system around Sept 25-28th.....if that did form it would be just off the SE coast and with the way the pattern evolved would have a fairly high chance of impacting the Carolina's with a lot of rain if nothing else.....

The GFS never fully develops it but it comes close...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_49.png
 

302cj

Twelve Pointer
Either way Sally looks to drop quite a bit of rain over NC....me and Shaggy were sadly contemplating the impact all that rain will have on the skeeter's down on our club.....

Another interesting thing noted on some of the latest runs is a broad area of storms off the SE coast that the models try to organize into a system around Sept 25-28th.....if that did form it would be just off the SE coast and with the way the pattern evolved would have a fairly high chance of impacting the Carolina's with a lot of rain if nothing else.....

The GFS never fully develops it but it comes close...

View attachment 50381
I was at Forst Fisher all weekend. It look like it was already there. Saturday was a mess.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
do you agree with the local yokel tv forecast that none but sally will impact US?
ehhhhhh yeah mostly.......the models try to form a storm near the SE in 7-10 days that is not associated with any of the current plethora of storms, and I would keep a eye on ole Teddy there are certain scenarios that could play out to make him more of a threat.....one big problem with this many systems is it plays absolute hell with the models trying to predict exactly how all these storms play out and little changes now could be big changes later.
 

nchunter

Twelve Pointer
ehhhhhh yeah mostly.......the models try to form a storm near the SE in 7-10 days that is not associated with any of the current plethora of storms, and I would keep a eye on ole Teddy there are certain scenarios that could play out to make him more of a threat.....one big problem with this many systems is it plays absolute hell with the models trying to predict exactly how all these storms play out and little changes now could be big changes later.
Yep, I heard Teddy was gonna be a bear.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sally gonna give NC a good soaking it looks like and honestly the trends with Teddy are pretty impressive it was being modeled to hit the SE when the models first sniffed it out, then the models all went middle ATL track well away from any land due to Paulette and Rene.....but the last 4 runs have seen a huge shift back west....still not direct threat to the US but if Teddy gets missed by the next trough in 3-4 days he will make a run at the east coast of the US IMO....this gif shows the shift west on the model from this point the run takes it over Bermuda ( who just got nailed by Paulette ) and then NE but it was very close to the trough missing the storm which would them put Teddy moving WNW or NW again.

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_fh156_trend.gif.fcac08da8d34056c964a3faa6063490e.gif
 

Ceehawk37

Six Pointer
Getting reports from friends down around Pensacola and Orange Beach that Sally has really whacked that part of the gulf coast. A bunch of folks didn’t think this was going to be bad and stuck around/didn’t prepare properly. Thankfully I think it wasn’t so bad that there were many casualties but a lot of boats/homes/businesses are going to be totaled when it’s all said and done.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Getting reports from friends down around Pensacola and Orange Beach that Sally has really whacked that part of the gulf coast. A bunch of folks didn’t think this was going to be bad and stuck around/didn’t prepare properly. Thankfully I think it wasn’t so bad that there were many casualties but a lot of boats/homes/businesses are going to be totaled when it’s all said and done.
Long duration winds can wreak havoc on roofs and docks. Already reporting 3rd highest surge ever for Pensacola and still have a high tide to go.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
What always gets me is all the vehicles parked down by the waterfront. While I know much of the land is flat, I would find the highest ground possible. I was watching one Weather Service meteorologist reporting from a parking garage. My vehicle would be on the second floor or higher.
 

2nd Calling

Button Buck
What always gets me is all the vehicles parked down by the waterfront. While I know much of the land is flat, I would find the highest ground possible. I was watching one Weather Service meteorologist reporting from a parking garage. My vehicle would be on the second floor or higher.
Setting up that insurance claim for a total loss
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Along with the potential for some bigtime flooding rain the models are starting to lock in on a significant tornado threat as well.....this is the sounding for the Pitt County area with the storm line passage this is pretty much how it looks the entire way across NC...

Notice the lower right hand corner PDS stands for particularly dangerous situation and is only generated when tornados are both likely and strong in the sounding....


nam4km_2020091612_045_35.63--77.32.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This is going to be one of those events where we could see stronger than normal type tropical system tornado's on top of the widespread 3-6" of rain for many parts of NC......especially in the yellow shaded areas

day2otlk_1730.gif

Below is from the SPC disco released earlier

Strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the system, spreading from GA across the Carolinas.
This will result in a kinematic space favorable for tornadogenesis.
Primary concerns, as is typical with tropical systems, is the degree
of destabilization and storm mode. Faster motion of the system
suggests there may be more opportunity for increased cellular
convection ahead of the system while still maintaining well-formed
rainbands. This will result in a greater opportunity for more
persistent updrafts to realize the strong low-level vertical shear.
Additionally, low to mid 70s dewpoints will likely be in place ahead
of the main convective bands associated with Sally. This ample
low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy, despite the poor
lapse rates associated with the tropical air mass. As such, the
overall parameter space appears supportive of tornadoes throughout
much of Day 2, including overnight Thursday into early Friday
morning across the Carolinas.
 

302cj

Twelve Pointer
^^^^thats sucks. Its only at 7mph now. I can't find what predictions are speedwise when it rolls through here. What are yall guessing.
 
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