Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Dang. Hopefully it will gone by Saturday. Dont like unloading in the rain with a dog and a wife

It will rain Sat regardless but it will be like today with off and on showers....so hopefully you get lucky and get home during a off time lol.

The low off the coast will still bring in wet conditions it just wont be a organized tropical system unless A LOT changes in the next 24 hrs or so and it probably isnt.
 

Clark

Ten Pointer
Headed to Atlantic Beach on Sun. I'm sure the storm will develop and force another evacuation by then.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Looking like there will be solid threats to the SE mid to late Sept....

CsdlGsM.png

Starting to see hits showing up in the long range on the models , dont take the location of this to heart just yet as the location of the storm is different in every run , the take away from this is the fact the storm is hitting the SE somewhere every run....this particular run was our turn. , it is moving NNE and crosses the sound on its way up the coast....it also puts down 20+ inches of rain over eastern NC. This is why all this rain we get now is worrisome we dont need the rivers all running full and then something like this come around.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
 

Wncbowhunter

Ten Pointer
Looking like there will be solid threats to the SE mid to late Sept....

View attachment 50182

Starting to see hits showing up in the long range on the models , dont take the location of this to heart just yet as the location of the storm is different in every run , the take away from this is the fact the storm is hitting the SE somewhere every run....this particular run was our turn. , it is moving NNE and crosses the sound on its way up the coast....it also puts down 20+ inches of rain over eastern NC. This is why all this rain we get now is worrisome we dont need the rivers all running full and then something like this come around.

View attachment 50181

Down east. Thank you for keeping us informed and while you say not to take this to heart, right now I don't like you very much. Lol. No seriously thank you for the weather information you pass along. Hopefully something will come along and push this out to sea.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Paulette will not recurve so far east IMO. Not gonna hit the USA but the troughs just look flat to me. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say a Felix 1995 track is possible here
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Here is the last 4 GFS runs, seems that the GFS is pretty set on a fairly strong hurricane in this time frame......

GFS gif.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
So you are looking at a model run over 300 hours out. I bet that's accurate. 🙄

Sure I look its available data, I think I am pretty clear when I stress in my post that the actual location of the storm is not the focus at this range but rather that the overall setup indicates a storm threat is possible....I mean this is the only model that goes out this far so its all on its own at this point, it is unusual to see a lot of agreement run to run in this range.....that's why when we do see the same storm show up 5 runs in a row we take notice.....

That said the Euro 10 day ens mean plots also show's a storm in the islands with several tracks that indicate threats to the US so there is support from several sources for this threat....

Again to avoid confusion it's not about accuracy of the actual location of the storm in this range but rather the overall signal that a storm will exist and be in the SW ATL sometime in the Sept 23-27 range that I look at....the storm could miss the US altogether like the latest run has though it is real close.....or it could be in the eastern GOM landfalling in the FL panhandle.....but either way it would have a pretty big impact on our weather here in NC.

Euro ens tracks showing storm location/strength 10 days from now.....


us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2020091012_15866_481_240 (1).png
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
A tool that is telling you that conditions are good for development of a tropical system during the next 10 days (1/3 of month) of the typically busiest month of the busiest year in recent history for tropical system development. In other words, just about as likely as seeing a MAGA hat at a Trump rally.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The system east of SE Florida has really gotten its mess together today and now it looks likely that a TS/Cane will form in the eastern GOM in the next few days....how much impact this has on our weather is yet to be seen, though its primary impact would be enhancing moisture thus rainfall.

96l.jpg
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
i think that shaggy and downeastnc have demonstrated a pretty good ability to use these forecast tools on storms that impact us in NC.
i cant recall anyone posting here giving us better long range predictions on severe weather?

The thing about these long range solutions is they are susceptible to major changes. I really only look out to 10 days with any real interest. Even that's a long range look.

Where they are useful is how it's ensembles are starting to show 2 camps. A weaker storm early still has some ensemble members threatening Florida and stronger sooner means more out to sea. We now have a benchmark to watch for. If it starts to gain strength or not can give you an idea of which long range look is most likely to verify.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@woodmoose hope 19 doesnt slide a bit further south and parallel the coast much more than its forecasted to do. Could rake the marshes of Louisiana again.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
hush your mouth young man!!

Right now most models take it inland further east. At the same time it seems to be drifting further south which could change the downrange angle so it's a sit back and wait for the time being.

I'm gonna say 100mph landfall mouth
of the Mississippi if I was a betting man.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Right now most models take it inland further east. At the same time it seems to be drifting further south which could change the downrange angle so it's a sit back and wait for the time being.

I'm gonna say 100mph landfall mouth
of the Mississippi if I was a betting man.

Yeah conditions are not terrible, water temps are a bit lower thanks to the upwelling from Laura but still its warm enough to support a hurricane.....the lack of any real shear till late in the time frame leaves the door open to Cat 2/3.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah conditions are not terrible, water temps are a bit lower thanks to the upwelling from Laura but still its warm enough to support a hurricane.....the lack of any real shear till late in the time frame leaves the door open to Cat 2/3.

I'm hedging my guess on a center relocation more towards the MLC which is slightly further south than the LLC. IF that happens and its a big IF then I think that could shift the track for it to landfall Mississippi river heading WNW.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@woodmoose the saving grace may be the turn north at landfall versus a paralleling of the Lousiana coast.

I still like the Mississippi river landfall but some models are really blow this up into a cat 3 so my 100mph guess could be low of they are correct.
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
@woodmoose the saving grace may be the turn north at landfall versus a paralleling of the Lousiana coast.

I still like the Mississippi river landfall but some models are really blow this up into a cat 3 so my 100mph guess could be low of they are correct.

NHC showing right there on Mississippi delta and LA/MS border
 
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