Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

[downeastnc]

Long range looks like there could be some tropical threats starting mid month.....then there is also this.....obviously its a little early for these kind of cold snaps to reach the south but this is a stout cold shot for this time of year period.....Sept is the month we usually see the first lows in the 40's possible outside of the mts and foothills......

This also shows that front stalls out in the east this is actually a bad look as this kind of setup means the door is open for a east coast landfall of any hurricanes.

 

[Homebrewale]

I just want some of that cool weather for the first day of dove on Saturday.

 

[shaggy]

I just want some of that cool weather for the first day of dove on Saturday.

It wont be smoking hot. Low 80s perhaps

 

[country]

Next up is Nana.

Looks like Nana is headed to Mexico...

 

[Fishhunt-365]

I'm just wanting to go to fort fisher and fish next Saturday for a week with no weather issues

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Weather issues for any of us.

 

[downeastnc]

I'm just wanting to go to fort fisher and fish next Saturday for a week with no weather issues

I am in the same boat, me and Shaggy have a house with a nice long dock right out into Bogue Sound rented for Friday-Tues this weekend and it looks decent weather wise....

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Yep,we leave next Friday till the next Sunday. &

 

[downeastnc]

The current "wave train" coming coming off Africa is darn impressive and the models all slowly develop one or some of these into a storm or two....the long range wave pattern also suggest these will get well into the SW Atl......so these will probably be the next batch of storms we have to worry with in 12 days or so

the latest Euro low strength and location projection has a lot of trouble on it, its the end result of its ENS plots and thus indicates the most likely locations for the center of these lows....obviously dont focus on any one point but the fact they are all clustered around the SW Atl close to the US is significant....



Wave train

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Umm,what now boys? Getting nervous

 

[shaggy]

Umm,what now boys? Getting nervous

Gonna have some storms to watch over the next 10 to 15 days.

 

[nchunter]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[downeastnc]

From last nights GFS run, the runs today dont show anything like this.....this is more funny that anything especially how they all avoid land due to the massive trough digging in over the central and eastern parts of the US, I would imagine some very cool/cold air with a shot like that....

 

[Clark]

I'm sure the one off NC will hit, since we will be in AB then. Will make annual 3 vacations in a row.

 

[ncboman]

2 weeks ...

you heard it here first.

 

[shaggy]

The Euro and Icon both like that little system near bermuda so I'd keep an eye out to see of it can start to improve.

 

[302cj]

I

The Euro and Icon both like that little system near bermuda so I'd keep an eye out to see of it can start to improve.

Im hoping it moves on north since ill be down there this weekend!!

 

[shaggy]

I
Im hoping it moves on north since ill be down there this weekend!!

Yeah its gonna be a tricky one IF it does anything at all. New Icon basically keeps it weak until the last 24 hours before landfall then drops it down into the 990s pressure wise.

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Landfall where? Bermuda

 

[shaggy]

Landfall where? Bermuda

SC or maybe NC if it moves more WNW.

It would be a tropical storm not a hurricane.

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Time frame like this coming weekend or the next week

 

[shaggy]

Time frame like this coming weekend or the next week

This coming weekend......IF it develops.

 

[shaggy]

Icon sticking with a upper 990s tropical storm for next Saturday.

 

[Fishhunt-365]

Holy sheet

 

[shaggy]

Holy sheet

It's one model on an island right now. Best thing to do is wait to see if any other models start to develop it or if it starts to finally develop like the lion shows.

 

[302cj]

Icon sticking with a upper 990s tropical storm for next Saturday.

At least it won’t be a direct hit for us. Looks like it will be about 5 miles south of us!!!

 

[shaggy]

At least it won’t be a direct hit for us. Looks like it will be about 5 miles south of us!!!

The more worrisome issue is the 12z EPS getting numerous ensembles with SE threats. It's almos like Paulette and Rene want to pull Florence and fake an out to sea track then get trapped and turned back west.

 

[shaggy]

Now designated 94L for tracking purposes. Up to 40% chance of development

 

[shaggy]

No major models are grabbing on to this low near Bermuda chance of development are probably pretty slim now

 

[downeastnc]

Probably going to at the least see some rainy weather from this low, if it does manage to organize enough to become a storm it probably wouldnt have time to become much of one.....still the NHC is close to 50/50 this thing having a name when it gets here....