Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Modeling looks good for NC. Consensus is for it to go into the gulf and the ensemble members that turn it and bring it up the coast are in the process of recurving it so it misses land altogether.
 

Buxndiverdux

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah, keep laughing, and listening to your local weather dude. I'll take my lengthier "warnings" from folks on this site, most notably the brothers. I wish we could archive their warnings, and the aftermaths. And when the worst DOESN'T happen??? They explain why.

Lighten up Wuffie. It was a fun post.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Modeling looks good for NC. Consensus is for it to go into the gulf and the ensemble members that turn it and bring it up the coast are in the process of recurving it so it misses land altogether.

Sept 15-Oct 15th is the time it will go nuts, even more so than now if the indices are all correct, it will come down to timing the cold fronts but the prospects of another hit in NC are higher than normal IMO, pretty good chance we at least get some scary model runs and near misses....

Even 13 might end up over NC as a rem low bringing rain to keep the ground saturated and rivers full setting us up for a major issue if we do take a hit again down the road.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
2020 strikes again...this would put 2 hurricanes landfalling on the US, at pretty much the exact same time 500 miles apart....I cant think of this ever happening before, hell I cant even think of anything even close to what the NHC is currently officially forecasting ever happening before.....there has never been two hurricanes in the GOM at the same time for sure much less both hitting land within hrs of each other....

Current TD 13 forecat to be a hurricane hrs from landfall
025007_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

TD14 forecast to be a hurricane hrs from landfall

025457_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
I'm gonna throw this out there and say not gonna happen. Any other year sure, but 2020 has something way crazier in mind.
 

Ridgeline66

Ten Pointer
Contributor
My Sister live's on Summerland Key, Irma went right over her house pulled part of the roof off and flooded it from inside, they are almost finished rebuilding.......
 
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Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
Question: At the point where they may interact with each other, the winds would be in opposite directions. Wouldn't they be shearing each other?
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Question: At the point where they may interact with each other, the winds would be in opposite directions. Wouldn't they be shearing each other?

Not always. Dry air and shear could effect one or both when they get close but storms go through the Fujiwara effect when they get close without shearing or killing each other.

It is beyond me to explain what direction these interactions are likely to experience in this case.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Interesting


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep a lot of the big indices show that the next month or so will be bad news, thus the forecast for so many storms....gonna be a lot of tracking involved and NC probably has a few more scares in store.....

This guy Webb is a good guy to follow, he post a lot on the boards I use and while a bit young and cocky he usually backs it up with the goods.....gonna be a top notch scientist/met when he gets a little age on him....

 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
one year (2006?) I was in Canada caribou hunting when one rolled through here,,,wife was pissed,,,

then another year I was elk hunting when one rolled through,,,wife was pissed,,,

this year I have two boongdoggles out of state (maybe three?) in September,,,if one rolls through,,,,wife will be pissed!!
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
No worries with Laura. If current trends hold this just might end up over east Texas as it interacts more with Cuba and stays weaker.

Weaker storms stay further south and west
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
and more snags


snags don't mean crap to our mudboats,,,them things are the 4x4 of the water world,,,ain't much for top end, but they churn through what don't even look like floatable water,,,

V8 engines hooked up with a forward/reverse transmission to a direct drive 15" prop,,,,,we push and pull through everything (to include nutria and gators),,,

but I digress from weather prognostication
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
one year (2006?) I was in Canada caribou hunting when one rolled through here,,,wife was pissed,,,

then another year I was elk hunting when one rolled through,,,wife was pissed,,,

this year I have two boongdoggles out of state (maybe three?) in September,,,if one rolls through,,,,wife will be pissed!!

Well, you have to admire your consistency.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
hush now,,,,make all that go away,,,a got a lot of boondoggles in September,,,,

come on!!

I have a house rented the Sept 3-8th on Bogue sound so trust me I want it to stay quiet till at least then....and honestly these two storms out there now are a big question mark on intensity etc so hopefully they cant get it together ......but there is no changing that at least on paper Sept-Oct unfortunately look historic in numbers.....that however also does not mean US hits, but more storm means more chances so time will tell....
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
No worries with Laura. If current trends hold this just might end up over east Texas as it interacts more with Cuba and stays weaker.

Weaker storms stay further south and west

Euro ensembles now keep a weaker storm south of Cuba until it reaches the gulf and goes boom.....looks like a big shift west towards texas.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
So if the NHC/models are right two Cat 1's will make landfall within 100 miles pf each other roughly 18-24 hrs apart.....the unlucky winner of that first time for everything goes to Louisianna, of course that would be a unprecedented occurrence so I suspect it wont quite work out that way but if it does it will be a mess for LA but they seem to be moving right along so rainfall will be high but not outrageous, the big wild card is wind, the GOM is primed and anything from Cat 1-5 is possible, just have to wait to see what the upper atmosphere offers up in support...
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Houston could be in trouble again. Models keep this one moving so.no Harvey type flooding but could be strong. Seems cat 3 is low end and cat 4 possibility.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah Laura will be a solid hit it looks like, Cat 2-4, somewhere in far east TX or LA.....and interestingly enough the track now brings her rem low over NC and its rather potent at that.....will have to watch that for the chance of some strong storms and maybe a higher than average tornado threat Sat in NC.....
 
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