Summer/Tropical Thread 2020

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Well off to a early start......models generally keep future TS Arthur offshore, any closer though and wind and rain would impact the OBX and surf will be up for sure.....

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Trending west on models all now have TS Arthur just off the OBX.....not much impact beyond surf and seas......though any more west trend and the center will get over eastern NC which would make for a very wet and windy day....

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Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
TD #1 on the way at 5pm. Gonna be close to the coast with a couple models making landfall over the outer banks.

Euro is now interacting this low with a ULL next week and has some pretty crazy rainfall totals coming in. If that continues expect the TV mets to start talking flooding.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
WPC has issued a moderate risk for flash flooding for you guys in the western part of the state.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Looking at the HRRR gfs,cmc it's just flat out bad for the western part of the state. We will see what the euro shows but it has been coming in even wetter for the central parts of the state.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yep some places in the Mts and foothills are gonna see A LOT of rain.....6-8" worth in places over he next 5-7 days....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
well both the 5 day especially and that 10 day missed it for my area,,,,,we've already logged 5 1/2" of rain in the last 24 hrs,,,,,and more to come
Well that's from that point forward.....so that map is from basically midnight last night, anything before then would not be counted in those totals....in these setups though if the models are wrong its usually on the low side..
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
Well that's from that point forward.....so that map is from basically midnight last night, anything before then would not be counted in those totals....in these setups though if the models are wrong its usually on the low side..
the 5 day was from Monday,,,, My rain total was from Monday night on

like I said, they missed it by 50%+,,,,

but it's typical of weather prognosticators,,,,not your fault the model was bad/inaccurate

weather forecasts are a "guide" to me,,,,I never hold them as accurate predictions as they are wrong on details so often,,,but almost always are right on generalities

the best one (for me) is the dang weather app on my phone - if it says rain is ending at XX time it's been almost always right

and of course the hurricane/himmicane predictions get accurate when they get close,,,
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
the 5 day was from Monday,,,, My rain total was from Monday night on

like I said, they missed it by 50%+,,,,

but it's typical of weather prognosticators,,,,not your fault the model was bad/inaccurate

weather forecasts are a "guide" to me,,,,I never hold them as accurate predictions as they are wrong on details so often,,,but almost always are right on generalities

the best one (for me) is the dang weather app on my phone - if it says rain is ending at XX time it's been almost always right

and of course the hurricane/himmicane predictions get accurate when they get close,,,
Yeah most of the short range mesoscale models are highlighting an area over the southern or eastern Piedmont now for excessive totals. Each model has the bullseye in a different spot by a few miles but they all have some 5-8 inch totals. If I had to draw a line using a combo of all them I would say southern pines, Fuquay Varina over to Wilson seems to be a highlight area for heavier totals.
 

Willie

Twelve Pointer
Yeah most of the short range mesoscale models are highlighting an area over the southern or eastern Piedmont now for excessive totals. Each model has the bullseye in a different spot by a few miles but they all have some 5-8 inch totals. If I had to draw a line using a combo of all them I would say southern pines, Fuquay Varina over to Wilson seems to be a highlight area for heavier totals.
I can confirm that Fuquay has gotten and is still getting a ton of rain. Not sure of totals, but it’s been raining for three damn days.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
I can confirm that Fuquay has gotten and is still getting a ton of rain. Not sure of totals, but it’s been raining for three damn days.
HRRR is running highest totals down towards Fayetteville now so maybe y'all will catch a break.
 
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