23mako
Ten Pointer
I hope there is a very thorough after action review of the preparation and response at the local, state, and federal level.
Summer 2024 weather thread
- Thread starter downeastnc
- Start date
I hope there is a very thorough after action review of the preparation and response at the local, state, and federal level.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
So far the models have stayed unimpressed with the system that will be in the GOM. There have been a few runs that got it stronger and unfortunately inland over the southern Apps but overall that seems less likely now.
There will be a very strong high end storm well out on the Atl that turns north way east of Bermuda...the models also have another storm forming and moving more west and.further south that could threaten the islands....but it's extremely rare for a storm that forms that far east to get the the US this late in the season.
The focus for Oct will be the Caribbean for those systems tend to want to turn north and they typically move faster.
There will be a very strong high end storm well out on the Atl that turns north way east of Bermuda...the models also have another storm forming and moving more west and.further south that could threaten the islands....but it's extremely rare for a storm that forms that far east to get the the US this late in the season.
The focus for Oct will be the Caribbean for those systems tend to want to turn north and they typically move faster.
QBD2
Old Mossy Horns
Let’s be real here. Whether or not the warnings were broadcast, or heeded, made little to no difference in the outcome.
There’s simply nothing to be done with that volume of water, at that velocity.
Justin
Old Mossy Horns
Lose lose situation, the high ground harbors trees and landslides. Low ground floods.
Thankful I live in the Piedmont.
And the sky is falling forecasts every time it gets cloudy is not conducive to people taking the warnings serious when the sky is truly falling.
And even if everyone paid attention to the dire warnings this time, no one could foresee the magnitude of damage that was done. Lots of folks probably thought they were prepared but in reality, there was nothing they could have done other than leaving considering the way everything unfolded.
And there should be a special place in hell for the looters and they should be getting their ticket punched to get there in a hurry!
And even if everyone paid attention to the dire warnings this time, no one could foresee the magnitude of damage that was done. Lots of folks probably thought they were prepared but in reality, there was nothing they could have done other than leaving considering the way everything unfolded.
And there should be a special place in hell for the looters and they should be getting their ticket punched to get there in a hurry!
Justin
Old Mossy Horns
The same few are doing it again with the 2 of 473828 models hinting at a similar track for the development in the GoM, when reputable sources have already said 1) if it does develop, it’s over a week out, and 2) if it does develop, all signs trend towards a westward trajectory. Can’t get attention with “there’s nothing to worry about for the foreseeable future…” posts.
Redneck Rocker Dude
Old Mossy Horns
I have access to the same information that you do and I knew that it was going to be bad based off what I saw on the internet, weather channel and my own research.
1) nobody listens to radio anymore 2) very few people have cable tv anymore
There is no amount of preperation outside of leaving that could've prevented this. It's not the governments fault that people didn't take the warnings serious.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
The day before it hit they used the wording catastrophic flooding....the authorities knew what was about to happen but the sad fact is most people just don't expect it will happen to them. People have a hard time imagining what catastrophic flooding would look like and can't picture the scenes we all see now beforehand as something that would actually come to pass.
You see it in every big event people always say they didn't have enough warning but the fact is most people just never think it will be as bad as predicted. Some of that is because it often isnt...but emergency managers can't base their decisions on that because sometimes like this time it is as bad if not even worse than predicted. So the ole saying prepare for the worst amd hope for the best is how they play it.
Yeah, except leave the area entirely.
Right. If no one alive has ever seen flooding like that, it's really hard to imagine what that level of disaster really looks like, and what the damage will mean going forward.
Because it's not just some of the time, it's the majority of the time that it isn't as bad, or nowhere near as bad, as the forecast for most of the people in an affected area. Often there is a small percentage of people who experience the worst of any given storm and the rest of the people end up thinking, "that wasn't nearly as bad here as they forecasted".
The mountains of NC get storms and remnants of storms every year. But this was a different animal. The effects were categorically different. I think that's where the understanding breaks down. When you've experienced storm after storm after storm, and handled it fine, it's hard to comprehend that the next one is going to change your life forever.
I think the best thing forecasters can do is just be accurate as to what to expect.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
I think they do but like you said typically the really bad stuff is limited is scope...like PTC8 smacking the extreme SE corner on NC a few weeks ago...
You are 100% correct though they have had plenty of bad storms and most people weather them fine...so it's tough to imagine what actually occurred actually happening. There however is no real way for forecasters to handle that other than how they do....the local NWS offices in those areas put out some very scary worded statements on whatcwas coming....I imagine they would all love to be being told they overracted right now versus being right.
timekiller13
Old Mossy Horns
No one anticipated 36-48” of rain.
They told people to get out. Some could and chose not to. Some could not.
Either way it doesn’t matter.
They told people to get out. Some could and chose not to. Some could not.
Either way it doesn’t matter.
It does not matter right now for this event, I agree with that. But it does matter for the next one. People have to decide how they want to live life and how they use information.
It's also not as simple as just leaving for alot of folks....money, pets, livestock etc can make a person take the chance to ride it out
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Looking mostly to totally dry over western NC heck the whole state really for the next week after today so thats good...got 2-4" in spots in the east yesterday and unfortunately one of those was my hunting club so the skeeters will stay ridiculous for now
Still some rumblings in the models about a potential GOM tropical system but any effects if any on NC is 7+ days out.
Otherwise Oct looking warmish for the first half no real cold air...maybe cooler pattern setting up later in the month... be nice to start seeing 40s at night.
Still some rumblings in the models about a potential GOM tropical system but any effects if any on NC is 7+ days out.
Otherwise Oct looking warmish for the first half no real cold air...maybe cooler pattern setting up later in the month... be nice to start seeing 40s at night.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
I completely understand evacuations from COASTAL areas for coming storms. I not sure how a week ago anyone could predict who in the mountains should evacuate. Only hours before it hit Asheville, it was supposed to be Cherokee that took the brunt of it, but most there never even lost power and no flooding. This is all mho, but even a mandatory evacuation might have put the wrong people on the roads, and possibly into harms way.
Maybe historically Helene might be used a barometer of how bad things can get. I know "20+ inches of rain in the mountains" was mentioned days before it she made landfall. I'd imagine that sentence alone may have saved some lives.
Maybe historically Helene might be used a barometer of how bad things can get. I know "20+ inches of rain in the mountains" was mentioned days before it she made landfall. I'd imagine that sentence alone may have saved some lives.
Don’t tell me that. Where’s my Oct 15 frost
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
You are going to have to settle for mid 40's at best unless you live over 3000ft in the mts.
Underhammer
Old Mossy Horns
Old people do 1 & 2.
My phone didn't register an emergency till Friday evening. Late. I was in East TN.
My boss, who was in Asheville at the time from Thursday till Saturday didn't get a phone alert till, Friday, late, and barely got out Saturday morning just before the road washed out.
I'm assuming since nobody listens to radio or cable TV anymore that they have phones?
If this was a forecasted 100yr or 500 yr storm, than the severity of the alert was late, imo.
It's either that or no one trusts the government....
Not late it was all that was talked about I just think people expected “flooding” not the apocalyptic event that happened. No way this could’ve been forecasted. Let’s look at the word “forecast” according to Webster…”a prediction or estimate of future events”. So you either plan for the forecast or ignore it due to personal preference but in no way was this not forecasted to be a major event, it just ended up being catastrophic.
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Redneck Rocker Dude
Old Mossy Horns
It literally was, as early as last Tuesday.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Looking to the GOM as the models keep trying to form a system down there so far it looks more and more likely it probably will become a storm possibly a cane...right now the biggest threat seems to be to central and south Florida and then hopefully the system heads out to sea...in fact typically Oct/Nov are the driest months for us in the Carolinas and the latest model runs have almost no rain for the next 10 days which is exactly what you want if you are in western NC.
dropnbassonu
Six Pointer
* Until black powder season comes in, then it rains nonstop
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Florida is gonna get another storm on the west coast where Helene caused a lot of issues....so far the models have the big blocking high keeping it from coming up the SE coast. It would take a lot of changes to the upper level setup for this to become a threat to coastal or eastern NC, all models agree it will cross Florida then head ENE out to sea for now.
shaggy
Old Mossy Horns
This mornings runs of the hurricane models have all become explosive with a very strong and large hurricane crossing the gulf and hitting west Florida.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
So the latest runs are really tragic for Florida with many taking this to a Cat 3-4, another disturbing trend has been for a more N track with few ensembles even taking in inland or even just offshore up over coastal NC...this is also most of the ensembles that has the strongest storms as those tend to want to go poleward quicker...still at this point its a very low threat to NC outside of big waves and coastal erosion and pretty much a zero threat to western NC...
Sadly soon to be Milton ( what a terrible name ) is going to hammer Florida and appears to quickly be getting his act together...
Sadly soon to be Milton ( what a terrible name ) is going to hammer Florida and appears to quickly be getting his act together...
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Yuck models have strong hurricane basically cross Florida from Tampa to Orlando to Cape Canaveral....Tampa Bay is recovering from the highest surge on record with Helene.
Key for NC not receiving anything is the high over the Great Lake diving south into Ohio shutting the door on the typical NE escape track, for this time of the year it's an anomalous thing to see however it fits the pattern we have seen repeatedly late summer into fall so optimistically it actually happens, if it doesnt then this will get further NE and much closer to the NC coast, still even then it is very unlikely a actual landfall threat exist in NC at this time. The thing to watch for is the high moving more east and less south which would let the storm continue to track more NNE up the coast and become a issue. for our coast.
Key for NC not receiving anything is the high over the Great Lake diving south into Ohio shutting the door on the typical NE escape track, for this time of the year it's an anomalous thing to see however it fits the pattern we have seen repeatedly late summer into fall so optimistically it actually happens, if it doesnt then this will get further NE and much closer to the NC coast, still even then it is very unlikely a actual landfall threat exist in NC at this time. The thing to watch for is the high moving more east and less south which would let the storm continue to track more NNE up the coast and become a issue. for our coast.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Someone posted this joking that maybe Milton would get the boat Helene left out of his pool in the Tampa Bay area....
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
16 day precip total on the latest GFS run good news for the mountains...
shaggy
Old Mossy Horns
Milton's going to blow through intensification records. He's going bonkers right now with a very small.eye. wouldn't be surprised to see him peak 165 to 175 mph this evening.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
The upside on Milton is there is a lot of dry air that could get into him before he gets to Florida which could take him down quite a bit...Florida really needs for that to happen otherwise they will be dealing with a Cat 3/4 for sure...