Stock market

Fatkid

Six Pointer
"Never Underestimate Joe's ability to Fup things."
O on JB.
Yeah I read an article today that all the big wig investors were cutting loose of stocks now to pay taxes on gains this year vs next because they are skeered of Joe’s new tax plan.
 

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
More often than not, when the market (DJI) gets CLOSE to a record during hours, it'll end up breaking that record. I'm gonna predict DOW 37,000 by week's end. I hope so anyways ;).

when it crossed 36k I wrote down 15 Jan for 37k,,,,

but agree on your observation
 

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Dow flying high for sure but Nasdaq tanked yesterday.. the disparity concerns me slightly.
 

Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
I can't see inflation, the crazy housing market, and rapidly rising costs of everything not causing a 2008 or worse crash.

Concerns are not there, 2022 I believe will be another good year. Inflation was a given due to all the money thrown at the public during the pandemic. Plus you had supply chain issues due to labor shortages. Inflation was a given and expected. 2022 you’ll see easing in inflation plus a slight increase in rates but nothing to spook the markets. Rates have to go up but if it’s at 1/4 point intervals then it’s so slight it won’t interfere. Can’t see a crash what is it going to crash on? Low interest rates for housing won’t be it. So where is the bubble?
 
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Nana

Big Ole Nanny
Contributor
My concern for a bubble to burst is commercial real estate. It has not happened yet because a lot of three year office space leases have been being paid through Covid but will not be renewed with so many working from home. We are not likely to see it in the Triangle with our growth, but places like Manhattan and other business centers will get slammed. No rent, no loan payments, foreclosures, values down etc. My BIL works in Manhattan and says there are TONS of for lease signs up in the office buildings. His company halved their office needs in the new year.
 

LIZZRD

Six Pointer
I have been pulling out some through the last year, yes I missed out on some $ but to old/scared to ride out another 2008 or 2020.
Hope I'm wrong but I think 32k before 37k.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
smart. Greedy pigs get slaughtered.

You describe staying in the market as greed. I would describe getting out of the market and into cash as fear. Both describe the same scenario.

From Investopedia:
You are the final decision-maker for your portfolio, and thus responsible for any gains or losses in your investments. Sticking to sound investment decisions while controlling your emotions—whether they be greed-based or fear-based—and not blindly following market sentiment is crucial to successful investing and maintaining your long-term strategy.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/030701.asp

Numerous studies are showing that financial advisors usually earn their keep by functioning as behavioral coaches for their clients rather than from active asset management.
https://www.investopedia.com/articl...visor-help-your-returns-how-about-3-worth.asp

As I have said, I'm a terrible market timer. As many studies show, other investors are also terrible market timer. There have been times I was ready to make big changes to my assets based on the "news". I have resisted that urge. I have stayed the course by sticking to my investing approach regardless of what the stock market is doing at the times. As a result, I'm not Buying High, Selling Low which is common among investors as they react to the swings in the market. Generally, they are lagging the market by reacting to yesterday's news.
 

MJ74

Old Mossy Horns
I havent looked at my 401k in a few months but I do know I looked at the fund I have the largest percentage of my money in and it has taken a pretty good hit.
 

agsnchunt

Twelve Pointer
You describe staying in the market as greed. I would describe getting out of the market and into cash as fear. Both describe the same scenario.

From Investopedia:
You are the final decision-maker for your portfolio, and thus responsible for any gains or losses in your investments. Sticking to sound investment decisions while controlling your emotions—whether they be greed-based or fear-based—and not blindly following market sentiment is crucial to successful investing and maintaining your long-term strategy.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/030701.asp

Numerous studies are showing that financial advisors usually earn their keep by functioning as behavioral coaches for their clients rather than from active asset management.
https://www.investopedia.com/articl...visor-help-your-returns-how-about-3-worth.asp

As I have said, I'm a terrible market timer. As many studies show, other investors are also terrible market timer. There have been times I was ready to make big changes to my assets based on the "news". I have resisted that urge. I have stayed the course by sticking to my investing approach regardless of what the stock market is doing at the times. As a result, I'm not Buying High, Selling Low which is common among investors as they react to the swings in the market. Generally, they are lagging the market by reacting to yesterday's news.

it's a saying on wall st, and there's some truth to it when people try to wring the last nickel out of tactical trades and end up taking a bigger hit than if they'd just gotten out with a good profit.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
it's a saying on wall st, and there's some truth to it when people try to wring the last nickel out of tactical trades and end up taking a bigger hit than if they'd just gotten out with a good profit.

That saying generally applies to individual stocks. As an index investor, it is less applicable. As a long term investor, the S&P 500 index has never had a negative return for any rolling 20 year period.

Also there are plenty of articles on the effect on return is a person misses the best and worst days in the market. Here is just one:
https://aaiila.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tuchman-Best-and-Worst-Days.pdf

From January 3, 2000 – April 19, 2020:
• Six of the seven best days occurred after the worst day.
• Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY by either top 10 returns over
the 20 years OR top 10 returns for their respective years.
Given this reality, if someone leaves the market after experiencing a poor return, it is literally impossible for them to get invested in time to benefit from the best day that may follow. Will they miss the 10 or 20 best days? Perhaps not – but it illustrates how repetitive ‘loss aversion induced selling’ as a habit can significantly erode the return.
 

Nana

Big Ole Nanny
Contributor
I have turned my money over to two different firms. One's strategy is to get out of the market a bit before everyone else and to jump back in a bit before everyone else. You lose a bit of high side gain but make it up getting back in early. This guy is being VERY cautious right now.

The other is a more age based run of the mill approach. So far they are just a bit behind the other guy.

I compare them net of fees.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
NFLX's Earnings call was the talk of Fast $ on Cnbc. Sounds kind of depressing with mentions of price increases, slowing growth, etc.

I feel I might be the only household left in America not using Netflix.
 

Fatkid

Six Pointer
I just use my daughter's account.

Maybe if Netflix is struggling, it it may be an indication that households are running out of discretionary money.
May be because they pay crappy comedians multiple millions for lack luster comedy specials. Also they are raising their monthly subscription fees again.
 
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