Umm you realize that a recession is not measured by the stock market right.
Stock market
- Thread starter woodmoose
- Start date
timekiller13
Old Mossy Horns
Your guess is as good as mine.
For the most part, I’m not looking for short term gains. I’m looking at tried and true money makers, like Apple, that are taking big hits and adding them to my portfolio.
If I were wanting to gamble on short term stuff. I would look at crypto. It’s so volatile you could take a bath, or you could make some serious coin. Maybe a crypto ETF?
Absolutely but slower GDP which has been revisioned down in last couple days coupled with higher costs, slowing employment etc. I expect February‘s job numbers wont be good. Consumer spending will decrease with higher costs. Last time we went down this route we spent $28 billion bailing out farmers. We were once the largest exporter of soybeans now Brazil is all due to trade war first time around. China put another reciprocal tariff of 15% on soybeans, beef, pork and chicken this month along with banning lumber exports from US. My guess they will now import more farm products from Brazil and get lumber from Canada. Expect another big farmer bailout coming all due to stupid trade war. Once you lose any kind of business, like we did to Brazil it’s hard to get it back. It’s a global economy you can’t become an isolationist. Copper and tariffs on Europe are next so if we continue down this path expect negative GDP later this year which will be a recession. I don’t understand, once the republicans were the party of trade.
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Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
Right now, I'm trying to time the market. I'm planning a Roth conversion. Time in the market has no effect.
This is why I don't understand people's
Your contribution dollars go further when the market's down. You're buying stocks cheaper than in an up market. So, when it rebounds (and, it ALWAYS DOES)....you're in a better position - quicker.
I'm close to retirement age....and I haven't looked at mine. I also won't.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
100 July 18th $80 calls are at close today appear to be worth (if sites are correct) $1,630.00
34% ain't bad for 2 days.
HATE I didn't do it in real life!
timekiller13
Old Mossy Horns
The stock market is such a fickle thing in the short term.This is why I don't understand people's
Your contribution dollars go further when the market's down. You're buying stocks cheaper than in an up market. So, when it rebounds (and, it ALWAYS DOES)....you're in a better position - quicker.
I'm close to retirement age....and I haven't looked at mine. I also won't.
I made my first investments when the market tanked in 2008-2009. It was like hitting it big at the slot machine. I bought in on stocks that were trading at stupid low prices and then made large gains in 6-12 months. That made me overconfident and I started to gamble more.
I have lost my butt a few times trying to “play the market.” So I quit trying to make good profits in the short term.
I’m 15 or so years from retirement if all continues to go well. I’ve shifted 80-90% of assets into big, stable long term players, such as SP500 funds and magnificent 7 stocks. When the market dips like this, I try to increase my holdings in those stocks as much as possible.
I’ve been dabbling a little in some ETFs that have high risk high reward. But it’s just play money and won’t hurt anything if I lose.
bte0816
Ten Pointer
I totally agree, why wouldn't I want to get more shares for less money?This is why I don't understand people's
Your contribution dollars go further when the market's down. You're buying stocks cheaper than in an up market. So, when it rebounds (and, it ALWAYS DOES)....you're in a better position - quicker.
I'm close to retirement age....and I haven't looked at mine. I also won't.
Sure past performance doesn't indicate future results but I'm not betting against ~90 years of history. I would rather prepare for a future that is likely to happen than the <1% chance we have an unprecedented event. I look at the total $$$ amount more than I should but my number of shares doesn't go down, only up every time I buy.
I'm also not under any illusion that my portfolio stops working for me when I retire. I don't know why so many people panic as they near retirement age and see a dip in the market.
because fear, and other emotions, run the lives of far too many people.I'm also not under any illusion that my portfolio stops working for me when I retire. I don't know why so many people panic as they near retirement age and see a dip in the market.
Retirement is an artificial deadline when it comes to investing. Just roll it over and keep trucking.
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
I think people have so little set aside for retirement that a big dip plus their withdrawal rate causes them to have a lot less purchasing power.
Most think matching the employer match is enough. Boy are they in for a rude awakening!
Most think matching the employer match is enough. Boy are they in for a rude awakening!
Natebonebusta
Eight Pointer
That’s a hard truth, but a very honest observation. The employer match works if you have 40 years of it, but the likelihood of that happening these days are about zero.
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
I have a really old 401k that I haven't rolled into another 401k. People keep saying "oh the fees are less", "you don't lose the value" etc.
I would lose the value, the value of compounding. My old plan requires a cash sale to roll into my current 401k plan I contribute to. Sure I'd have dollar for dollar but I wouldn't have the thousands of shares that are compounding at a faster rate. The difference in maintenance fees is moot.
I have never rolled any of mine together. I have 4 total accounts, they all have different investment options so i call it my diversification.
I'd sure like to hear more about how this works. I'll admit when I'm ignorant about something, and this (above) I'm ignorant to.
Let's say my wife had a pretty sizable 401K that we were thinking of rolling into another account. Bad idea?
That’s why all my stocks are dividend paying stocks with over 8% yield. They are less volatile in down markets and just keep on paying dividends. Down markets over time allow buying opportunities to drive up your yield.
You can roll it over into an IRA with no fees when she leaves the company.
She left the company 6 yrs ago.
My question revolves around the compounding shares portion of his reply above.
I am not sure anybody can say it is a bad idea or a good idea w/o knowing all of the details. Fees now vs. the new account, growth rates of the current account vs potential in the new one. Investment options in both, risk tolerance (which is something only you can answer) etc.
I am not sure I fully understand what he was saying in the post you referenced except the very last part "compounding at a faster rate" that says where his money is now is growing faster than where he would move it too. Just because you change accounts it does not negate the laws of compounding interest unless the destination account investments are slower growing. With fast growth comes higher risk though so that tolerance thing comes up again.
I took it to mean he would lose (automatically) compounding if he moved it. I've just never heard anything like that before.
Hence my question.
I know when I moved mine it was as if nothing changed except it was now labeled an IRA versus a 401k. Can’t see how you’d lose anything.
Only thing I have ever heard of in that regard would be vesting rules. I have had situations where those played into decisions about what to do with money/stocks/employment.. But that does not make sense in the context of him saying he "would have dollar for dollar" I took that to mean he would get 100% of current value when he moved it.
Maybe he will respond with an example of the math.
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
@DBCooper @Firedog tagged instead of quoting everything.
Not an issue with vesting rules or risk/reward of the fund. I can't rollover the exact shares. I would have to sell all the shares in the old 401k, transfer the cash sum to the current 401k due to rules of different account managers. I still retain dollar for dollar except I lose the compounding advantage. I would have to buy shares at the current price. I lose the advantage of the dividends of shares that were purchased for less than $35, many were bought at sub $15 a share. All are currently above $70 today and as high as 90s in the last year.
Essentially I would get x amount more dividends compared to starting over. That's the powers of compounding. I would rather get 10 dividends instead of 1.
Not an issue with vesting rules or risk/reward of the fund. I can't rollover the exact shares. I would have to sell all the shares in the old 401k, transfer the cash sum to the current 401k due to rules of different account managers. I still retain dollar for dollar except I lose the compounding advantage. I would have to buy shares at the current price. I lose the advantage of the dividends of shares that were purchased for less than $35, many were bought at sub $15 a share. All are currently above $70 today and as high as 90s in the last year.
Essentially I would get x amount more dividends compared to starting over. That's the powers of compounding. I would rather get 10 dividends instead of 1.
Thanks but I think I might still be missing something or be confused. I am not arguing here, honestly trying to understand the math.
If you sell at todays price in one fund and then buy back at todays price, you should have the same number of shares and therefore the same dividend amounts. If you bought 100 shares at $15 and today they are $70 and you sell all of it today you have $7000 and if you rebuy using the 7000 at todays price you still have 100 shares which produce the same dividend.
Are you saying that you would not be able to buy the same securities in the new fund.. if so then that makes sense to me, OR i f your dividends are reinvested at your original purchase price or your dividends are somehow tied to your purchase price? I have never heard of a dividend that did that but maybe I am learning something. I only own one dividend producing individual stock and I get the same dividend per share regardless of the purchase price.
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
I realize I was looking at it from cost basis perspective of the initial purchase.
To me rolling over is just about the framework that you want those funds invested through and who is managing it. You can buy the same stuff with the same money. I am not an expert, but I helped my parents roll their 401k/IRA over through an independent financial advisor. My dad really wanted his out from under his former employer and under private control. They are happy with that choice and are taking their required minimum distributions now.
As far as timing the market, I think it's much easier to spot low points than high points. There have been multiple short term incidents over the past decade or two where I knew for near certainty it was a temporary dip - usually based on some geopolitical fear that never materialized - like the Brexit. Those buying opportunities are usually easier to spot than when to sell. And we buy every paycheck no matter what the market is doing, so I don't play that game anyway.
As far as timing the market, I think it's much easier to spot low points than high points. There have been multiple short term incidents over the past decade or two where I knew for near certainty it was a temporary dip - usually based on some geopolitical fear that never materialized - like the Brexit. Those buying opportunities are usually easier to spot than when to sell. And we buy every paycheck no matter what the market is doing, so I don't play that game anyway.
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
Cost basis is not important in tax deferred accounts like 401k and traditional IRAs.