Spring/Summer Weather Thread

302cj

Twelve Pointer
Thunderstorms around? If so it could have been a strong gust front or a downburst that outran the rain shield maybe?
I’m thinking a little straight line winds. We got hit also in Harnett. I had 2 trees down around 9 last night. Winds lasted less than 5 minutes but were rolling around 30-40 if I had to guess.
 

spinnerbaitor48

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Taking wife and her girlfriends to clt airport sun morn at 5 am to catch flt to mia for cruise to bahamas and dom rep.....please let the weather be good enough for them to sail.....me and the dogs need a 6 day respite....
 

bwfarms

Old Mossy Horns
But the moist soil “weeds” sure are flourishing!

Was about to start second cut hay and scouted the height and saw an outbreak of the wonderful Nightshade family member, Carolina horsenettle. It’s everywhere around here this year, I’m not the only one suffering from it but I’m one of the very small few spraying. Just as well, there were a few pockets of milkweed that need to be dealt with. So second cut has been postponed 😔
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
How Elsa plays out will depend on a couple of factors....its very likely at this point that she crosses NC as either a rem low or maybe even weak TS.....winds probably wont be a big issue as she will have been over land for 24 hrs or so by the time she gets up here. There are a few ensemble members especially on the Euro that show the storm staying on the east side of Florida and hitting NC directly this would obviously greatly change the impacts for us though at this time that is still on the low chance according to most models and their ensembles which show a eastern GOM track then north inland over the SE.

Still even with that track with her fast forward speed some places might see gust 30-40mph.....that is not much to get excited over though. Rain wise the models keep the rain shield very tight to the center.....typically the rain shield expands especially in the NW side after landfall on systems turning north like this so I am not sure how much I buy into the current models evolution of that part of the system. Those along the center path though will see 2-4" of rain.

As always there will be a enhanced threat of spin up tornados on the NE and E side of the center, its fast forward speed may increase this a tad bit.

All of this is of course if she actually survives the next 24-36 hrs, she is moving fast and interacting with a lot of islands that have 6-8k tall peaks, these things are all currently hurting the system pretty significantly, frankly she currently looks like s**t.....its a race to see if the system can clear these intact.
 

302cj

Twelve Pointer
What the hell is pushing her? Haven’t seen many weather people talk about it. Traveling about twice normal tropical system.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
What the hell is pushing her? Haven’t seen many weather people talk about it. Traveling about twice normal tropical system.

The mid atlantic ridge ( aka Bermuda high, SER) is rather stout at the moment....thats why we been stuck in this tropical rainy pattern the last 7-10 days.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Elsa's biggest news will be while she's over water. They'll find something else to scare us about once she fizzles out over land.

She might not even make it, she is in rough shape now and might never really recover.....these things are such a crap shoot as far as what they can pull off.....there will be a period off the west coast of Florida for her to try and make a comeback but its tough to know what that will look like.
 

Clark

Eight Pointer
Tired of forecasts that read "waves 4' every 6 seconds". I want the "2' @ 8 seconds with light wind waves".
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Gfs has done good with a track into the eastern GOM but has struggled with strength somewhat. Rainmaker still looks likely for a decent portion of NC east of the foothills.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
97L will likely become a designated tropical cyclone in the next day or two. Models generally take it into Florida with the latest run hitting Florida and going up the east side of the mountains. Previous run went in Tampa and through eastern NC. Will just have to wait and see what happens and when or if it will provide rain for the drought areas. I've had around 20 inches of rain in June so I dont need the rain.

Gfs did a phenomenal job on track with this storm. Has pretty much held onto the same track with very little waffling back and forth. Gonna be a rain maker for many and maybe present a tornado threat.
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Not a Moderator
What hit my house last night around 10PM???? Wife said wind blew hard 10 minutes before it started raining. Neighborhood had all kinds of small and some medium sized limbs down this morning. Half a mile away not a leaf on the road. Took our power out for a couple of hours also.
1625587801822.jpeg
 

Hunterreed

Eight Pointer
Yes,micro burst can be rough if you got a big field or wide open spot for it to come at you. We had some strong wind last week with that cooler air before getting some rain. Got almost 3/4 of an inch over 24 hours that kept the corn from rolling the leaves. Now if we get that tropical storm to dump some rain this week it will save the soybeans and make ears on the corn. I just got to get my taters dug before it gets here it won't do them any good now the plants are yellow. Tomatoes are going to pop their skins too if we get a frog strangler
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Elsa is back to hurricane strength. Someone on the left side ofthe track should get some heavy rainsand the the ones to the east should get some bands of thunderstorms and potential tornados. Thursday day time should be the timing.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What kind of wind?

Yall have TS watches up for gusts as high as 50mph over the coast. Theres a strong high to the east which the NHC highlights as a contributing factor for higher winds along our coast.

Gonna really depend on exact track as it moves through NC.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
No way in hell a hurricane comes to NC in the day time!

Doesnt seem that way recently does it. This is no longer a hurricane anyways and will be a needed rain maker for some and an unwelcome one for some of us.
 

FITZH2O

Twelve Pointer
They got us down in wildwood Florida riding it out. Not too bad here really. Gonna be interesting if it keeps TS strength when it gets to the northeast. Their power grid ain’t in near as good shape as the southeast.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
An update is being issued on Elsa to further detail potential impacts from this storm to North Carolina. Elsa made landfall over western Florida this morning and is presently moving inland over the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. No change in forecast track is being made in this update: Elsa will move northeastward through Georgia today and continue moving north/northeast over the Carolina Piedmont and Coastal Plain tomorrow (best guess at this time would be along or west of/parallel to US-1), likely as a tropical depression. Based on all available model guidance, it appears that the greatest impacts from the storm from both rain and wind appear to be over central/eastern portions of the state.

PRECIPITATION: Elsa is expected to move fairly quickly through the Carolinas, but as with any passing tropical/extra-tropical system, bands of heavy rain capable of producing localized flooding or flash-flooding will be a possibility Thursday as the storm moves through. The highest rainfall totals of 2-5” are anticipated over the Piedmont and Sandhills Thursday, mainly east of I-77 out to the I-95 corridor in central/eastern North Carolina. To the east, over the Coastal Plain and Outer Banks, lesser amounts of 1-3" of rain are currently expected, with higher localized amounts possible in areas that are impacted by thunderstorms or persistent rainbands.

SEVERE WEATHER: As Elsa approaches from the south, warm and humid air will be drawn northward through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain in advance of the storm, aided somewhat by daytime warming. This will provide the instability and wind shear needed for scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern North Carolina. Concern is increasing for the potential of scattered tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong, over all of central and eastern North Carolina and especially to the north and east of the center of the storm as it moves through the state, starting early tomorrow morning and ending tomorrow evening. Damaging straight-line winds will also be a threat from any storms tomorrow.

WINDS: The highest winds associated with this system (sustained 20-30 mph, with gusts of 30-50 mph) are expected to be observed close to the center of the low as it moves through the state. This corridor of highest winds is expected to be mainly east of I-77 to the greater I-95 corridor, starting Thursday morning and continuing through most of Thursday. To the east of this corridor, over the Coastal Plain and Outer Banks, sustained winds of 10-25 mph are possible, with gusts to 45 mph, also starting Thursday morning and continuing through most of Thursday.

IMPACTS: Isolated damage to trees and powerlines will be possible tomorrow (tornadic damage notwithstanding), resulting in isolated power outages. Localized flooding and flash-flooding (especially in flood-prone areas of central and eastern North Carolina) will be possible. In sum, localized disruptions to infrastructure will be possible over central and eastern North Carolina tomorrow.
Regarding the tornado concern: any tornadoes that form tomorrow will likely have limited warning lead time; we advise everyone to have multiple means of receiving weather alerts and be prepared to act quickly. Individual storm motion is expected to be from the south or southeast to the north or northwest. Consider delaying any outdoor business to another day and consider avoiding travel if possible.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Elsa will mostly be a rain event, some wind possible on the east side of the center, a few models get some 40-50 mph gust but I think that is probably to much, 30-40 more likely......really the biggest threat IMO is tornados on the east side in the banding the models are showing.....

After Elsa there will be a round of storms with a front Friday and these could push severe limits....

Florida tornado

 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Seems Elsa is the little storm that could. Major convective blowup going on that has been bringing hurricane force gusts to Tybee island and a place in SC peaked at 81mph. This was totally unexpected and I have no idea what or even if that means anything up our way.

All I can say is watch for tornado warnings and @wanchese watch for high winds and some minor flooding.
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Not a Moderator
Seems Elsa is the little storm that could. Major convective blowup going on that has been bringing hurricane force gusts to Tybee island and a place in SC peaked at 81mph. This was totally unexpected and I have no idea what or even if that means anything up our way.

All I can say is watch for tornado warnings and @wanchese watch for high winds and some minor flooding.
Thought we were gonna get some consistent thunderstorms here between 5:30 and 9pm. Not a drop fell. Wife gonna be bummed cuz I told her we’d get rain so she didn’t have to water the garden earlier
1625718157357.gif
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Thought we were gonna get some consistent thunderstorms here between 5:30 and 9pm. Not a drop fell. Wife gonna be bummed cuz I told her we’d get rain so she didn’t have to water the garden earlier
View attachment 69542

Looking like its gonna be an east side dominant storm at the moment. Probably a pretty sharp cutoff over the western piedmont. Foothills and mountains might be out of luck with this one now.
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Not a Moderator
Looking like its gonna be an east side dominant storm at the moment. Probably a pretty sharp cutoff over the western piedmont. Foothills and mountains might be out of luck with this one now.
Ten four I’ll keep a better eye on forecast and radar rest of the week thanks
 
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