Spring/Summer Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Rain would be alright but could do without winds over 35.

Probably gonna see some water rise in your neck of the woods Sunday night into Monday, S winds in the 20-30 mph range for a extended period of time with gust well into the low to mid 40's should make for a interesting evening.
 

hunthard2

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Had a nice thunder-boomer here in Wilmington this morning. Thunder shook the bed...I took the dog out on the covered porch and watched it a while
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Looking like less rain out west as the storm attempts to stay more tropical, some scattered showers and storms but nothing like was modeled several days ago.....overall not going to be a big deal for most, biggest impacts will be risk of a few tornadic storms especially in SE and far eastern NC and strong southerly winds along the coast causing so water rise.....especially on southern and western sides of the OBX.....general 1-3" of rain unless you get under the training heavy rain bands in central and eastern NC those places might see 3-5" in a few places.

Also the models are starting to heat up in the mid and long range with more threats forming......of course in that range the exact location, strength, timing etc is prone to a lot of error, the take away is that the models are seeing storms, there is a decent chance that we see several more named storms over the next several weeks as the cane season cranks up for what looks to be another well above average season.
 
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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Probable TOG near Williamston right now and the storm in northern Pitt Co is trying hard to put down a tornado just saw this on FB of the storm over the Belvoir area....

t.jpg
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Probable TOG near Williamston right now and the storm in northern Pitt Co is trying hard to put down a tornado just saw this on FB of the storm over the Belvoir area....

View attachment 68469

Probable??!?!?!! Granted I don't see any debris, and it's a still image, but if that ain't a nader, I'd still be getting underground if I saw that thing coming my way!
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Probable??!?!?!! Granted I don't see any debris, and it's a still image, but if that ain't a nader, I'd still be getting underground if I saw that thing coming my way!

That passed a mile or two north of me and it looked like it was scraping the treetops. First time since 2015 that I was really thinking a tornado was imminent. This was my view.
 

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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
97L will likely become a designated tropical cyclone in the next day or two. Models generally take it into Florida with the latest run hitting Florida and going up the east side of the mountains. Previous run went in Tampa and through eastern NC. Will just have to wait and see what happens and when or if it will provide rain for the drought areas. I've had around 20 inches of rain in June so I dont need the rain.
 

Papa_Smurf

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Send that bad boy my way....Tracking just east of the mountains is perfect. We need rain bad. Last few "storms" we've had didn't even get the ground wet.
 

Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
We've had 1/2 inch in the last 2 months...it's as bad as I've seen around my house. These pop-up storms aren't doing me any good, dang foothills keep pushing them away from little slice of heaven and making it more like a dust bowl.
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Not a Moderator
We've had 1/2 inch in the last 2 months...it's as bad as I've seen around my house. These pop-up storms aren't doing me any good, dang foothills keep pushing them away from little slice of heaven and making it more like a dust bowl.
It’s bad here in Caswell too, driest since 07 but so far not as hot.
Are crops in yalls areas getting to the point of too far gone? Or are they still limping along
 

Zach's Grandpa

Old Mossy Horns
Still limping along but the farmers aren’t even irrigating tobacco. I guess the ponds are so low after irrigating when planting they figure there isn’t enough water left to make the crop.
 

shurshot

Eight Pointer
My place in Pamlico Co couldn’t buy a drop of rain for 23 days after I put corn in. Then the flood gates opened and dumped 8-10”’s in a week. Pumped the water off but it still took too long to dry out and will end up losing 60-70% of my corn. But the moist soil “weeds” sure are flourishing!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
97L looks very close to becoming our next storm.....models are showing a decent chance for a this one to get to far west to miss, of course where it would ultimately hit is wide open but a fair amount of ensemble members show NC dealing with it is some capacity, might be a rainmaker at the least and for some of you guys that would be a good thing for some of us not so much.....unfortunately its going to be another long tropical season.


Ensemble tracks ( again this is 7-10 days out, but at this point the pattern looks good to get this far enough west to be a issue possibly )
1625075083024.png



Current microwave pass shows very good banding and inner structure of the tropical wave they could call this a TD or TS right now but they are going with the potential designation till they see some longevity with the current organization......I actually like this as it allows time to see if the system can maintain and gets public eyes on it sooner.

Capture-3.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
GFS has been pretty consistent in taking now Tropical Storm Elsa into the eastern GOM where it makes landfall on the Florida panhandle then move NE inland....if this scenario plays out then it will be a rainmaker for us as the model then takes the storm right into central NC....the models move it very quickly under a very strong mid Atlantic ridge so it might be moving to fast to really get organized, fast forward motion is usually a deterrent to strengthening for tropical systems.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

Current official track matches that scenario

085512_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Getting a little stronger than expected??

Yeah started lastnight and has continued to strengthen. Probably on it's way to a cat 2 by tonight or tomorrow. Still looks to provide someone in NC with some rain later.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
What hit my house last night around 10PM???? Wife said wind blew hard 10 minutes before it started raining. Neighborhood had all kinds of small and some medium sized limbs down this morning. Half a mile away not a leaf on the road. Took our power out for a couple of hours also.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What hit my house last night around 10PM???? Wife said wind blew hard 10 minutes before it started raining. Neighborhood had all kinds of small and some medium sized limbs down this morning. Half a mile away not a leaf on the road. Took our power out for a couple of hours also.

Thunderstorms around? If so it could have been a strong gust front or a downburst that outran the rain shield maybe?
 
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