Spring/Summer Weather Thread

ibgreen

Ten Pointer
Contributor
All the weather nerds call that the wake county split.

Dynamics were stout and where the storms were rough they produced the weather advertised they would. The killer for the forecaster is the coverage of storms was far less than they thought it would be which was a very good thing. Still likely had 4 to 5 tornados yesterday based on damage reports.

What would the cause of that wake county split be? Uwharrie Mts. effect?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Paging Woodmoose.....Easter freeze/frost right on schedule.....

A interesting blurb from oneof the data hounds on the weather board...


"That's climo, bro! There's no telling what will actually happen as they don't show an actual freeze at RAH (other than the 12Z Crazy Uncle), but RAH has had a freeze in April 3 years in a row, 14 of the past 21 Aprils, and 52 of the last 71 Aprils. I just hope the models aren't overdoing this supposed little cool spell, but they likely are due to cold bias even with the GFS op apparently not being as cold biased as before."



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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sucks for Dixie Alley second high risk of the year......hoping for something to mitigate the potential, or for the tornados to stay out of population centers like they did 3/17....also the storm mode could be messy with lots of convective type showers and storms, this would actually prevent any one storm for getting good clean air to work with....and prevent a lot of the bigger long track type storms......though all it takes a a couple of supercells to get some breathing room in that environment for things to get ugly fast.....some really scary modeling showing several massive supercells with long tracked tornados in northern MS/AL....for us in NC the next real chance for organized severe weather would be Friday( though that looks lower end) and then Sunday for possibly a bigger more widespread type event....

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This is about text book perfect as it get, a large violent wedge tornado with a large stable debris signature that is 2.5 miles across ( not the tornado but the debris ) and the radar is seeing debris 25-30k ft high, this will be a EF4/5 and unfortunately its hitting populated areas.....

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Another monster on the ground now

Yeah and that cell seems to be in the clear meaning unobstructed inflow and headed for the greater ATL metro area in a hr or so......need this thing to run out of steam but parameters to support it are there all the way to ATL ....though they weaken some....just got to hope this one plays out soon, easily a strong violent tornado on going with it right now though and it being nighttime just makes it so much worse....

 

Ceehawk37

Six Pointer
Tornado killed 5 in a town close to where I grew up in AL yesterday. Seems every few years a real bad tornado rips through the same general areas in AL/MS/GA. Got to be something that influences these long path tornadoes to plow through the same areas but I haven’t heard a good explanation on why. I know of one place in particular that a church has gotten leveled 3 times since in the last 25 years by either F4 or F5 tornadoes. They finally moved the church a few miles down the road after the 2011 outbreak.
 

bwfarms

Twelve Pointer
That old man winter forecast can flee to the North Pole, I have a fair amount of money tied up in red clover that is just germinating.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
What part of the state???

All of it, its not snow really its just cold.....highs in the low 40's, lows in the 20's on some runs.....there are a few times when the models hint at some snow as well but it wouldnt amount to much at all if that happened outside of the mts at least.....the big take away is that Easter weekend is looking well below normal and might be winters last gasp.....with temps well into the 20's in the western half of the state.....could be a killing freeze easily.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
I'm taking a youth turkey hunting Saturday/Sunday next week. Along the VA line. I have to buy their hunting clothes. They live in Florida. Looking like chilly conditions?

Thanks!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I'm taking a youth turkey hunting Saturday/Sunday next week. Along the VA line. I have to buy their hunting clothes. They live in Florida. Looking like chilly conditions?

Thanks!

Yeah lows in the 30's highs in the 40's but it could be wet Friday morning ( dare I even mention the S word ) and then windy and cold the rest of the weekend. Plan for lows in the 30-40 range highs in the 45-60 range 45 on Sat and 55-60 on Sunday

This is one of the colder models and its very chilly.....either way the cold shot hitting next week looks legit cold

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Hi Res models getting rough tomorrow and Sunday with lots of storms over most of the state with some showing signs of being tornadic and big hailers....the shear isnt as strong as the system last week though so hopefully its more general wind and hail versus tornados though the models do show a lot of spinning supercells.....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Tornado warning in Mooreand Lee counties? I'm hearing thunder in Raleigh right now.

Yeah hooky little SOB blew up rather quick there is a warm front boundry right over central NC and its possible we see a few tornadic cells like this with rather strong tornados......not the best environment for tornados but sometime all you need is just good enough. I would treat this as a TOG and take precautions its looking like a strong couplet on radar is is probably close to actually producing a tornado if it isnt already...
 
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