Spring/Summer Weather Thread

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
FITZH2O said:
Is that drone footage? It is really good and stable.
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Yeah this is something some of the chasers have started doing recently. Makes for great videos. This is one from oklahoma last year. Near the end of the video you can really see the suction vortices and how violent some of them can be.

 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
shurshot said:
What’s the lastest guys??
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the environment for storms is awesome but there's something that is hindering storm development and all the hi res models show very little storms. They've reduced the moderate risk zones and lowered the tornado chances. its possible they continue to shrink that zone even more based on the latest models because they show almost no severe development for some reason. Could be the CAD, a warm layer above us, who knows.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
It all comes down to when the wedge breaks down and how much sun thus instability we get.....chances are better east than west for severe storms and southcentral and southeast NC stand the best chance as of the latest but I would not let my guard down yet anywhere till we see how fast that warm front moves north,.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
woodmoose said:
heck, Fort Bragg is shutting down at noon for all but "emergency" personnel,,,

treating thunderstorms like hurricanes now,,,
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Yeah this is going to go down as a significant failure from the SPC. A day 2 moderate risk is RARE and I know they did it because all the parameters for a major outbreak were there. As we've gotten down to the event the models just kill the storms. I'd suspect even further downgrading of the risks as the day moves on.

One thing is certain. The models have been struggling really bad for the last several months. I'm not sure ive seen such bad modeling from all of them. Sometimes one or 2 models might be out to lunch but currently it's most of them.

Let's hope they get better before hurricane season.......if not we might as well just put Louisiana in the cone because they were a hurricane magnet last year.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The issue is the potential today is there for strong big long track tornados, even with the models waffling on if they happen they still have to be very careful......thus they err on the side of caution. Its not perfect but if they dont forecast to the potential for a bigger outbreak then there is a bunch of tornados the very same people that fuss about them hyping will be complaining that they did not "have enough warning".....its really is a lose lose for the mets.

There will be two potentially bad places to be today, the first is right along and just east of the actual warm front, any supercell anchored to that boundry could be potentially the worse storms of the day with the most destructive tornados......the second area will be east of there in the warm sector where the surface winds veer back SE against the SW flow aloft in the core of the strong LLJ......

The cold wedge is holding tough.....

Current Temps.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
downeastnc said:
The issue is the potential today is there for strong big long track tornados, even with the models waffling on if they happen they still have to be very careful......thus they err on the side of caution. Its not perfect but if they dont forecast to the potential for a bigger outbreak then there is a bunch of tornados the very same people that fuss about them hyping will be complaining that they did not "have enough warning".....its really is a lose lose for the mets.

There will be two potentially bad places to be today, the first is right along and just east of the actual warm front, any supercell anchored to that boundry could be potentially the worse storms of the day with the most destructive tornados......the second area will be east of there in the warm sector where the surface winds veer back SE against the SW flow aloft in the core of the strong LLJ......

The cold wedge is holding tough.....

View attachment 62983
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The wedges this year have been stout and longer lasting than forecasted most of the time. I'm gonna go with it winning out here and only the southern part of the state seeing any isolated severe storms. This wedge is strong.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Shaggy said:
The wedges this year have been stout and longer lasting than forecasted most of the time. I'm gonna go with it winning out here and only the southern part of the state seeing any isolated severe storms. This wedge is strong.
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Yeah there is some breaks and or thin high clouds coming that should pass over central and eastern NC over the next several hrs that could cause the wedge to break, any sun will lead to instability and with this LLJ setup is gonna be problematic.....
 
woodmoose

woodmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
Shaggy said:
.if not we might as well just put Louisiana in the cone because they were a hurricane magnet last year.
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hush yo' mouth!! We just got done repairing damage from LAST year,,, could use a year off of hurricanes down there,,,
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
woodmoose said:
then they are idiots,,, tornadoes don't really give much "warning",,, most any bad t-storm has potential,, yes, some worse than others, but always there as far as I am concerned

only thing I am truly leery of,, tornadoes,,,
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Well there are lots of idiots soooooooo.......the problem with today is that things are primed for big ole midwest wedge style tornados, versus the smaller typical weaker types more typical to NC. Thats why you see the extra concern from the SPC and NWS.....the upside is yesterday all the big tornados managed to avoid bigger towns/cities unlike 2011 where they all seemed to hit major population areas......luck of the Irish I guess yesterday......

Same thing for us today if a big ole tornado tracks through Wake county its gonna be bad, if it tracks through Nash County then chances are it wont eat as much stuff.....a lot of it is luck actually.

There will probably be a few nasty cells in NC today and maybe even a few nasty tornados.....the latest run of the NAM has worse case scenario with a meso complex with a family of tornados in a bad spot(that yellow line is probably where there is a tornado) lets hope its wrong...the upside though is that is the only really bad storm tornado wise it really has....

NAMNSTMA_con_uphlysw_031.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
12z suite shows a few more storms than previous runs especially for I95 area and over towards south of Raleigh.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
NCST8GUY said:
We're closing schools and businesses in NC because we expect Spring thunderstorms now.
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I know that sounds funny but from recent experience, I'm glad they do. During a hail storm last year, one daughter had her car totaled and the other daughter had (IIRC) around $10k in damage. Get home and get the vehicles inside the garage.
 
Deep River

Deep River

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Homebrewale said:
I know that sounds funny but from recent experience, I'm glad they do. During a hail storm last year, one daughter had her car totaled and the other daughter had (IIRC) around $10k in damage. Get home and get the vehicles inside the garage.
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Nah. It doesn't sound funny. It sounds foolish.
 
Papa_Smurf

Papa_Smurf

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Rolled through here about 20 mins ago. Rained hard with big thunder.

Hope the house has a little hail damage on the roof. Needs a roof and would like insurance to help out!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Decent couplet on that cell hitting southern Charlotte.....might be close to actually producing a tornado....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Also a warning on one near High Point, this one could be trouble as it is one of those that is anchored near the warm front boundry and those can get bad....
 
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