Spring/Summer Weather Thread

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Flash flood watch posted for coastal plains. General 4-8 with 6-10 along the coast. Locally higher amounts. Sounds like fun!



* From 8 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening.

* A stalled front will remain near or over Eastern North Carolina
for the majority of the upcoming week. At the same time a series
of disturbances will move along this front and will bring periods
of heavy rain to the area. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are
expected inland, with 6 to 10 inches along the coast. Isolated
higher totals are possible. The heaviest rain is expected along
the coast. The soil in our area is already saturated in many
locations, with some areas receiving 3 to 5 inches of rain over
the past two days.
 

QuietButDeadly

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
A week ago, the forecast was calling for rain this past Sunday, dry Monday and a good chance of rain the rest of the week. The cool down was also predicted.

So far the cool down is pretty much on schedule but the precipitation has not panned out in my neck of the woods. Might have gotten a tenth of an inch Sunday morning early but nothing the rest of the day even though it was in the forecast. The light sprinkle early today would not have soaked through your shirt and now the wet week is gone from the forecast.

We could use a good soaker but looks like we missed out this go round.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
As we get into the next 30-60 days its going to be the real meat of the tropical storm season, the setup is not very good for the SE, the number of storms will be above average and the overall pattern looks to be favorable for steering storms into the US.....here is a model that is running all the Euro ensemble members for the next 45 days and averaging that....again this is just for a general idea of how the pattern is going to be not a actual prediction of each of these storms....this just supports the overall idea that the season will be busy and the steering pattern not good for the US....this does not mean NC is gonna get hit......though it does appear our chances are better than an normal year....

 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
We were pretty close to normal rainfall at the beginning of June but since then Pitt County has just been getting dumped on. We have now surpassed our wettest year to.date making 2021 the wettest ever through this date. It's pouring again this morning. We also still have the heart of hurricane season to go.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20210807-081658_Samsung Internet.jpg
    Screenshot_20210807-081658_Samsung Internet.jpg
    86.2 KB · Views: 2

timber

Twelve Pointer
Was in Greenville yesterday. You can tell they had plenty rain. Alot of the crops i saw looked lked crap. Saw few fields that didnt get planted and several would been money ahead to have save the soybean seed amd not planted them. Looked like they were planted towards end of july. Soybeans on that sand that are only 4 or 5 inches tall now probably not going be worth picking
 

Justin

Old Mossy Horns
You coulda got sunburned bad in all that rain we got (didn’t) get today. The yard looks like it’s got fault lines running through it. I haven’t mowed in almost a month, and it’s just now to the point that it MIGHT need it
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models trying to make these players in our weather next week....obviously too early to pin down much but it needs to be watched especially in the eastern 1/3 of the state where A. we really dont need anymore rain and B. we really dont need anymore rain.....

1628464157707.png

Things we dont wanna see....GFS and Euro agreeing in this range.....this would be a weak system wind wise but again rainfall is the big issue right now....

1628464210618.png

Euro

1628464436396.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Newly designated PTC 6 model ens guidance paints a bad picture for the SE......not sure how developed it would get as it interacts with a lot of the big islands in the Caribbean and that usually suppress development....biggest concern at this point is a lot of rainfall....it would have to take the eastern side of the current guidance to be a big wind, surge threat to NC at this point....there is also another wave in the mid ATL that might be right on this ones wake....

1628547513822.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
TS Fred on a track that usually makes life tough for tropical systems......at least for the short term...once he gets into the GOM we will see what he can do.....the good news is there is no real model showing a turn up the east side of Florida and allowing Fred to be a direct threat to landfalling in NC.....where exactly the rem low tracks over the SE however will determine how much of a rainmaker for NC this is......early guess is threat is higher west to east and if he manages to get his act together and come in as a reasonable well organized system the mts could be in for some serious flooding issues.....

WPC office for NOAA factoring this in to the 7 day rainfall prediction on totals.....

1628697945950.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Models hinted at the heat around the end of last month. It took a bit longer for the pattern to change but the heat is here now. Pretty rough out there the last 2 days
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Man the GFS nailed TS Fred falling apart and now it does this with 95L which is currently out in the mid Atlantic.....this is exactly the kind of setup this pattern we are stuck in would produce and this is a monster hit for NC....its far enough out though we got plenty of time to watch.....but that right there is about as bad as it gets, very large, organized Cat 3 right into Swansboro moving NNW .....strong hurricane conditions from at least I 95 to the coast with a storm this big.....

1628837944288.png


1628838076626.png
 

bigdrumnc

Ten Pointer
Man the GFS nailed TS Fred falling apart and now it does this with 95L which is currently out in the mid Atlantic.....this is exactly the kind of setup this pattern we are stuck in would produce and this is a monster hit for NC....its far enough out though we got plenty of time to watch.....but that right there is about as bad as it gets, very large, organized Cat 3 right into Swansboro moving NNW .....strong hurricane conditions from at least I 95 to the coast with a storm this big.....

View attachment 72030


View attachment 72031
Perfect
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns

Grace currently is not showing any real signs of slowing down, and this will maybe let her get far enough west to not get pulled north by the trough beginning of next week and then the she gets caught under the new ridge over the US and ends up in TX lol like the lastest run of the GFS had though that seems the least likely outcome it has shown so far.....so this really shows how timing is everything...the run before that Grace ends up crossing FL from west to east then moving right up along the coast giving much of the SE a strong TS.....obviously some of the other runs had Grace hitting NC as a strong cane.....

On a related note it seems fairly certain that Grace will interact with Haiti bringing high winds and flooding rains in 2 or 3 days.....need the track to shift north some to save them from having it greatly hamper the earthquake relief efforts, all in all a horrible situation.....however the more north it goes the higher the chances of a impact on NC;
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Don't look now @woodmoose but the GEFS ensemble run likes the Louisiana area for landfall for Grace.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20210814-140201_Samsung Internet.jpg
    Screenshot_20210814-140201_Samsung Internet.jpg
    98.1 KB · Views: 3

bigdrumnc

Ten Pointer
I hate it for any one, but dang sure don’t want to see one in NC. Once was a day i would pray for ground swell and travel the east coast for hurricane swell! I was addicted to the weather channel , stocking up on beer and food. Now I hate the dang things , worrying about my house, neighbors, and I despise the clean up!!!!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
House in Raleigh got an inch today. Wife said it thundered so close the house shook.

Gonna be a wet week, again.......Right now Grace looks to be headed more south, but Fred is trying to make a run at a respectable system again and is east side heavy with the organization so that means a lot o tropical moisture up this way mid week.....there will be areas that get under those training lines of slowish moving storms that see big totals.....the mts in general look to get hammered so you mt folks be ready for some possible flash flooding etc....

This is the excessive rain chance map from WPC for Tues/Wed....

1629037053432.png

This is the 7 day rainfall map, this does not mean every single place gets this much but instead is a general total potential for a area over 7 days.....but widespread 3-6" amounts of the mts etc is probable at this point...

1629037146102.png
 

agsnchunt

Old Mossy Horns
I hate it for any one, but dang sure don’t want to see one in NC. Once was a day i would pray for ground swell and travel the east coast for hurricane swell! I was addicted to the weather channel , stocking up on beer and food. Now I hate the dang things , worrying about my house, neighbors, and I despise the clean up!!!!

Was just thinking the other day when was the last time I even paddled out. Probably pass out just trying to get out. Kids are all over me "can we go surfing?!" That's why I want to move back to the beach.

...and I'm ignoring the flooding, damage, cleanup, etc.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
You west NC guys looked to get smoked....calling for areas up to 10" over the next 48 hrs with the rem low of Fred.....

1629142730415.png
 
Top