Spring/Summer Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Places in Pitt Co have to be closing in on 15"+ in July ( on top of the 20-25" in June ) this is literally almost the yearly average in two months....I know places in SW Pitt Co have had 8-10" in the last 2 days alone. August looks to start off on the same foot as well with models showing 5-8" over a lot of central and eastern NC over the next 10 days or so.....
 

QuietButDeadly

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
All that heat we were warned about for this week must have detoured to Antarctica to melt the ice shelves. Next weeks heat too!

After tomorrow @ 93, 86 is the highest I see on the 10 day and only a couple days that high. More in the low 80s which is way on the low side of normal for NC in August in my over 7 decades of experience.

But I am sure we will pay for it with hotter than normal at some point.
 

JWH15

Six Pointer
All that heat we were warned about for this week must have detoured to Antarctica to melt the ice shelves. Next weeks heat too!

After tomorrow @ 93, 86 is the highest I see on the 10 day and only a couple days that high. More in the low 80s which is way on the low side of normal for NC in August in my over 7 decades of experience.

But I am sure we will pay for it with hotter than normal at some point.
I'm sure September 11th will be 100 degrees
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
Places in Pitt Co have to be closing in on 15"+ in July ( on top of the 20-25" in June ) this is literally almost the yearly average in two months....I know places in SW Pitt Co have had 8-10" in the last 2 days alone. August looks to start off on the same foot as well with models showing 5-8" over a lot of central and eastern NC over the next 10 days or so.....




Those big rains have been kind of spotty. Some of the last rains ranged from a little over 3 inches to less than 1/4 inch in only a few miles apart here
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Those big rains have been kind of spotty. Some of the last rains ranged from a little over 3 inches to less than 1/4 inch in only a few miles apart here

Yeah some of the rainfall total maps have literal differences of 5-10" over several miles....the southern half of Pitt Co for example is probably a good 10" higher than the northern half if not a little more.....here is a post I made on one of the weather forums I visit concerning how wet we have been in Pitt Co....

The 30 year average for rainfall by July 29th at PGV is 29.15", PGV is currently sitting at 42.55" and the southern half of the county is probably 8-10"+ ahead of that.....so right now the surplus at PGV is 13". Hell the annual total rainfall average is 53.44", if we just get the average totals for Aug and Sept we will exceed the yearly average by Oct 1 of this year with 3 months to go in the year.....and that is without any kind of tropical systems, which the models are hinting at heating up by mid Aug.....
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
Yeah some of the rainfall total maps have literal differences of 5-10" over several miles....the southern half of Pitt Co for example is probably a good 10" higher than the northern half if not a little more.....here is a post I made on one of the weather forums I visit concerning how wet we have been in Pitt Co....

The 30 year average for rainfall by July 29th at PGV is 29.15", PGV is currently sitting at 42.55" and the southern half of the county is probably 8-10"+ ahead of that.....so right now the surplus at PGV is 13". Hell the annual total rainfall average is 53.44", if we just get the average totals for Aug and Sept we will exceed the yearly average by Oct 1 of this year with 3 months to go in the year.....and that is without any kind of tropical systems, which the models are hinting at heating up by mid Aug.....




here on the Nc Va line we are getting adequate rain but nothing like they are south and just north of us in Va. Don’t really want to see those big totals here now. The crops are getting all they need
 

thandy

Eight Pointer
If you are just sitting on the porch check out getting a Thermacell. They are what most hunters use for mosquitos in the early hot deer season, and work well to provide an invisible mosquito barrier if you aren't moving.
I am in the same boat. Seems like they either follow the mtns on one side or the river on the other.
 
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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
A buddy of mine has a weather station and he has recorded 59 inches in west central Pitt County this year with 20 of that in June.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
here on the Nc Va line we are getting adequate rain but nothing like they are south and just north of us in Va. Don’t really want to see those big totals here now. The crops are getting all they need

Yeah all the fields here have ponds in the low spots and obviously the crops there are lost.....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
they can have all the rain as long as it dosent flood out Sam Jones bbq in Greenville. That’s been my go to place to eat last few times down that way

Yeah that smoked turkey is the absolute best thing ever.....I think I know what I am having for dinner now :)
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
You take that back. I have a beach trip for a week starting 8/14. Any tropical activity needs to be after that!

I am going to the mts the week of Sept 12th with a cabin on Soco creek and plan to catch my limit of trout every day......need no landfalling canes to mess that up......that is the peak of the season though so I am worried :(
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The wet ground has definitely been helping keep our temps lower than modeled. Humidity is garbage but overall today we've come in a couple degrees under forecast.
 

Papa_Smurf

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
I am going to the mts the week of Sept 12th with a cabin on Soco creek and plan to catch my limit of trout every day......need no landfalling canes to mess that up......that is the peak of the season though so I am worried :(
We normally go to the bea h late june to avoid the july crowds and the later season hurricanes, but mid august is just how the family schedule worked out this year.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sunday looks potentially stormy and unfortunately the setup on some models would support tornadic cells....if there are sufficient thunderstorms.....the storm mode looks a little messy as it typical this time of the year, its tough to get discrete enough storms to allow rotating updrafts to really develop.

This image shows the NAM models take......this first one shows the ability the air mass has to support supercell type storms....anything over a 3 is considered favorable, over 5 is really favorable....

1627613153950.png

Same with the STP which stands for significant tornado parameters....this measures the capacity of the air mass to produce strong tornados.....it does not mean it will only that IF supercells formed the shear values support strong tornados....again though this only means that if certain things lined up there could be some strong storms that could produce tornados.....a lot of things could prevent it.....but if you have plans for Sunday especially outdoor plans you may want to really keep a eye on how this threat develops. Timing will be critical midday into the afternoon will increase the threat if it does not get here till later in the evening/overnight then the threat would be lower.....then next week looks like several days of slow moving storms so a lot of rain but it will be hit or miss....though you western folks ought to get some relief and us eastern folks probably get more than we want/need.

1627613673356.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Latest from the SPC seems to match up well with the models showing a window for some pretty severe cells over central and eastern NC tomorrow....does not mean its gonna happen only that conditions support severe weather if the storms can fire up....



Gonna be a wet week

1627752722951.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Both the euro and the GFS have a storm developing in a week or so. Looks like the tropics may start to get active which isn't a surprise.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Eastern 3rd of the state is gonna see some big rain totals this week. Areas between 95 and 17 should see 2-4 with locally higher amounts and east of 17 along the coast they are saying 6-8 inches with locally higher amounts.

Then we have to start watching the tropics as the models are showing the season really getting started with a storm in the longer range.
 

Wanchese

Twelve Pointer
If I got to work in the rain, I’d prefer it doesn’t stop. This mess of scattered showers every 30 minutes sucks.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
If I got to work in the rain, I’d prefer it doesn’t stop. This mess of scattered showers every 30 minutes sucks.

If the models are right it sets in several times with copious amounts of rain.
 

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Dick

Ten Pointer
Yesterday's storm was pretty solid. Winds gusted at my house in the mid 40s but downtown greenville got hit hard and had some tree damage
looked a bit more then 40 at my house. Wind was wicked when it started and we got a good shoot of rain.
 

Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Not a measurable rain here in well over a week, it just avoids us and dumps a few minutes of rain out of hours of rumbling and threatening. I've had to water the garden twice this week already.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
what about kings dominion area today?😬

Tough call. Really sharp gradient to the rain so small shifts can change the amount of rain considerably.
 

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