Spring/Summer Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Oh great. First drought. Then monsoon rains. Back to very dry. Now a weather pattern that’s conducive to rolling tropical systems right through us.

Lions and tigers and bears oh my ……

A big block over SE Canada is not what we want to see it makes the NE turn out to sea less likely.....
 

agsnchunt

Eight Pointer
Great book, the stories and details of what happened in Galveston in 1900 are tragic but a lot was learned just 15 yrs later a similar hurricane hit on a similar track and Galveston and its new sea wall weathered it much better.

i read some book about the Hurricane when I was a kid. Pretty devastating.

my brother has lived there for 20 years. They like the reds and trout down there. And surfing the brown water.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
End of the month looks rough.....finally going to see somewhat of a heat wave.....temps around 100 for 3-5 days the last week of July...

1626784249745.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
As the big heat ridge builds into the central part of the country there will be a setup that could favor a MCV or Derecho event on the NE side of the ridge....this would possible be aligned to impact parts of the Carolinas.....these are fairly rare but the pattern could support some derechos next week heading into the end of the month, after that the heat still looks to build into a "heatwave" with a run for 3-5 days with temps 95-100....especially over the western piedmont and central sandhills.....where rainfall has been lower so less ground moisture allows for higher temps.

Some explanation of Derecho's and an example of when NC had one here...basically Derecho's start as a small cluster of thunderstorms that expand and form a long sharp wall of storms that moves quickly in a east to southeast direction gaining momentum as it goes.


This image shows the life cycle of a Derecho with warnings.....this one ( one of the worst ever ) started as a cluster of storms in Iowa and ended up a 300 mile long line of severe storms racing SE at 60-70 mph.....


1626876200190.png


1626876213489.png

Models still holding onto the idea of near 100 degree heat building in by the end of month.....

1626876349555.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
And I don't see where any weather forecasting source is projecting 100 degree weather next week.

It's in the longer range so there's more model uncertainty for sure but the models do heat us up. Temps cracking 100 are likely too high especially for areas where the ground is wet and we've had lots of rain. The map posted is for hour 276 so past the 10 day mark thats why nothing is showing up on any forecasts yet.
 

Clark

Eight Pointer
Derecho = squall line?
Got caught offshore a few years ago. Storm started as just a dot on the radar, so we started to fish around it, dot exploded to a solid line of storms in just a few minutes. We ran 15 miles but could not get around it, finally had to turn into the waves and ride it out.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Derecho = squall line?
Got caught offshore a few years ago. Storm started as just a dot on the radar, so we started to fish around it, dot exploded to a solid line of storms in just a few minutes. We ran 15 miles but could not get around it, finally had to turn into the waves and ride it out.

A Derecho is different than a normal squall line. It has to produce wind damage over a 250 mile continuous path to be classified a derecho if I'm not mistaken. Squall lines come and go but a derecho moves fast and is its own weather system.

The one in Iowa last year was one of the worst ever and there are some crazy videos of it.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Derecho = squall line?
Got caught offshore a few years ago. Storm started as just a dot on the radar, so we started to fish around it, dot exploded to a solid line of storms in just a few minutes. We ran 15 miles but could not get around it, finally had to turn into the waves and ride it out.

Typically the term Derecho's are used for very large organized systems.....squall lines generally is a smaller area. The terms are not exclusive though, but the term derecho is usually associated with the larger multi state long tracking events and not more localized ones.

The local NWS office refers to the July 1st 2012 event in eastern NC as a derecho in their write up but it IMO would fall under squall line as it was just eastern NC that dealt with it......that day is still the day with the most impressive instability parameters I have personally seen....you will often hear mets refer to "cape" values which in a very general sense is the amount of instability in the air, the higher the cape the better more severe a thunderstorm can get.....so cape values of 3-5k are considered extremely high.....on this day most of eastern NC hit a insanely high cape value of 6-7k, another parameter the LI index which measures lift potential ( a high number would be 5-6 ) was 10-12....sadly several people lost their lives to the storm and Washington airport was all but destroyed by straight line winds over 100 mph

 

Attachments

  • 1626881005118.png
    1626881005118.png
    116.7 KB · Views: 1

Deep River

Six Pointer
It's in the longer range so there's more model uncertainty for sure but the models do heat us up. Temps cracking 100 are likely too high especially for areas where the ground is wet and we've had lots of rain. The map posted is for hour 276 so past the 10 day mark thats why nothing is showing up on any forecasts yet.
Hmmm.

He said it would happen the last few days of this month. That is inside 10 days. Furthmore, lots of agencies forecast temperatures well outside of 10 days. None of them were or are (as far as I know) forecasting 100 degree temps.
 

beard&bow

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Any of y’all see the air quality warning today for the western region? Fine particulates and such. I noticed it seemed really hazy all day today around the house.

What @josh said. Been the same way, here, since yesterday morning.

I found it odd that it would travel across the country, and still smell like I'm standing in the vicinity of a camp fire. Boys spent the entire day outside and, when giving hugs when they went to bed, both of them smelled like smoke.

Read an article earlier that stated "The fires are so hot, they're creating their own weather."
 

YanceyGreenhorn

Not a Moderator
What @josh said. Been the same way, here, since yesterday morning.

I found it odd that it would travel across the country, and still smell like I'm standing in the vicinity of a camp fire. Boys spent the entire day outside and, when giving hugs when they went to bed, both of them smelled like smoke.

Read an article earlier that stated "The fires are so hot, they're creating their own weather."
Worse here today than it was yesterday
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What @josh said. Been the same way, here, since yesterday morning.

I found it odd that it would travel across the country, and still smell like I'm standing in the vicinity of a camp fire. Boys spent the entire day outside and, when giving hugs when they went to bed, both of them smelled like smoke.

Read an article earlier that stated "The fires are so hot, they're creating their own weather."

Fires can create little micro climates. They can create their own wind and thunderstorms.
 
Top