Spring/Summer 2022 Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
All eyes still on TD 9.....looks almost for sure now that this will at the very least cross Florida as a significant hurricane.....after that its either up the coast or just offshore.....wind wise this scenario is worse case for NC as it sets the table for a possible second landfall over eastern NC....still plenty of time for things to shake out we still talking a solid week away.....

Latest Euro

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Duckmauler dhc

Twelve Pointer
Someone needs to put guinness on standy by.......we have gone 12 STRAIGHT DAYS without rain(except for the short shower yesterday). The rain gods demand that we must pay for this. Please let it stay dry for a while.
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
Last model run of GFS has Ian near Atlanta on Friday. I'm supposed to be in Greenville, SC on that day picking up a new puppy. I'm hoping either the forecast changes or the people let me pick up a day earlier.
 

Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
All eyes still on TD 9.....looks almost for sure now that this will at the very least cross Florida as a significant hurricane.....after that its either up the coast or just offshore.....wind wise this scenario is worse case for NC as it sets the table for a possible second landfall over eastern NC....still plenty of time for things to shake out we still talking a solid week away.....

Latest Euro

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Is it going to track more to the west now?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Is it going to track more to the west now?

Right now it looks likely this hits far enough north up the west coast of Florida to make a second NC landfall unlikely....however there would be some issues, especially with what looks like a setup for heavy rain with cold air damning in place ( this is something that is very unusual ) and of course tornados on the right side of track....wind wise its hard to say again the overall setup is pretty unusual.....
 

hunthard2

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Right now it looks likely this hits far enough north up the west coast of Florida to make a second NC landfall unlikely....however there would be some issues, especially with what looks like a setup for heavy rain with cold air damning in place ( this is something that is very unusual ) and of course tornados on the right side of track....wind wise its hard to say again the overall setup is pretty unusual.....
But so far, the consensus is that we will see plenty of rain from this?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
But so far, the consensus is that we will see plenty of rain from this?

I would think probably some places will, the models show a very strong cold air damning event over the SE like 15-20 degrees below normal as the storm moves up, this would all but kill the cane right at landfall, if it were to barrel right into it.....running a lot of warm tropical air over a low cold ( relatively speaking ) dense airmass should cause there to be quite a bit of precip....still a long time to go here. But I think its safe to say that Ian or his remains will directly impact NC weather primarily with rain Fri-Sun this coming week...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
where are all the spaghetti projections? Is this like Charley in 2006?

I mean that is not a terrible analog.....there will still be fine tuning and this is still very much could be anywhere from Pensacola to missing NC to the east....
The last few frames has it moving much more NNW on the far east of short term guidance....this lends more weight to a Charley like track....as you can see the models still disagreeing.....I think GFS is to far west by a good bit....at the very least its gonna rain lol.

Euro
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GFS
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Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Watching news
“Ft Myers’s is bracing for a massive hit”

There’s full bar in background with people watching football on Tvs

Haha 😂

Im going to be surf fishing for red drum this week on the OBX….bring it
 
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dpc

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Im going to surf fishing for red drum this week on the OBX….bring it
Most fish I ever caught was in finger lakes with a storm out of south.

Couldn’t get lines in water quick enough

Like caddy shack…….

Was 19…….. buddy and I were like, “if we die, we die
 

Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Most fish I ever caught was in finger lakes with a storm out of south.

Couldn’t get lines in water quick enough

Like caddy shack…….

Was 19…….. buddy and I were like, “if we die, we die

Hurricane Sandy I surf fished the day before and ran out of bait and honestly had all the fish I wanted to carry off the beach, caught everything under the sun. One other time on a front I ran out 18miles out of Hatteras with a front coming from the south left at daylight and I put the boat on the trailer at 10 or 10:30 that morning so only fished for 2 hours maybe 2.5 at best had 14 gaffer dolphin smallest was 14lbs and had 3-yellowfins from 37-39lbs each. If I could’ve stayed out there I believe I could’ve sunk the boat with fish.
 

dpc

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Memorable days: you get them you keep fishing.

That’s impressive hull

We went out next morning and couldn’t catch a cold

Weren’t paying attention down riggers were skipping off bottom of lake. Lot of money on bottom of that lake

The lord giveth. The lord taketh.

43 now and remember that day like it was yesterday
 

Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Memorable days: you get them you keep fishing.

That’s impressive hull

We went out next morning and couldn’t catch a cold

Weren’t paying attention down riggers were skipping off bottom of lake. Lot of money on bottom of that lake

The lord giveth. The lord taketh.

43 now and remember that day like it was yesterday

yea we don’t get many days like that in our lives but makes for good stories when you’re sitting around
 
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Duckmauler dhc

Twelve Pointer
Well the 14 day “drought” ended last night. We got a nice little mini flood. All we need is a hurricane now and 10+ inches of rain to add to our record yearly total lol I knew we were going to pay for going so long without rain
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models now stall the system to the south and kill it more or less, this would limit the rainfall significantly to 2-4" statewide, this is fine with me, last thing I want if a bunch of flooded ditches and tree rows leading into rifle opener, skeeters are bad enough as it is....that said there is not much difference between that solution and one that has it sliding up the coast increasing rainfall.

At this point the chance it holds together enough to get up here with a decent core of wind seems on the low side.....for now.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
If the center does manage to cut up across Florida the blocking high off NE is going to be rather robust.....so if the circulation from Ian can hold together enough and get up this way the gradient would be enough to cause some issues on the coast....it does not take much to put Hwy 12 under....could be several days with strong NE fetch....guess that would also be problematic for the south sides of sounds and OBX.....
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
So Giant Cat Hurricane strikes US coast 2 days from now? Or was the prediction 2 days ago wrong?
Depends. The ukie, euro, icon and hmon would be landfall around 48hrs from now. I'd the western slower solutions are right then it's probably 3 to 4 days away. There's sort of 2 camps right now. The ones giving it a chance to cross Florida into the Atlantic and the slow movers that rake the west coast of Florida. The 18z EPS run had the most east of Florida solutions we have seen in a day or 2.
 

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This seems all but assured to be a solid strong hurricane somewhere into the western coast of Florida....the big story today has been the growing model ensemble consensus that this might try to actually cross Florida and emerge into the ATL and make a run up the coast as a organized hurricane. The models had pretty much abandoned this thinking yesterday. Either way it goes either up the west coast of Florida into the SE or up the SE coast into the Carolinas its gonna be wet here, but obviously a storm coming into the Carolinas would also bring some wind.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Potentially looking at high end Cat 3 or Cat 4 into the west coast of Florida in roughly 2 days so any of you with interest or family down that way its looking like a bad one, Ian currently packing 125 mph winds and no signs that will lessen before landfall, in fact he could push 130-140 or better.

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