Fall/Second Fall 2022 Weather Thread

FITZH2O

Old Mossy Horns
Managed to get 2" of rain Sunday in my neck of the woods, more rain in a hr than the last month and a half.....Wed/Thur looks interesting severe weather wise, with good dynamics over the area allowing storms to go severe with some big hail possible....not as much of a chance for tornados as downburst and big hail, in fact Wed looks to be similar to the cluster of thunderstorms we saw a few weeks back that blasted south over the western end of the state though more east this time and probably more expansive as well coming out of KY/OH and expanding after they cross the mts....then more general loosely organizes clusters of slow movers on Thurs possible so isolated flooding issues in the areas that get training slow moving storms.

Wed

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Thur

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I am working in Rochester, Indiana and it has been dry up here for a good spell now. Our show up has been moon dust for a month. Well my buddy got here at 0200 and said it stormed like hell all night. Talked to the farmer this morning and he said 1.2” last night and they are calling for more storms next 3 days. Still dry down in southern Indiana where I live though. Did some driving this weekend and their beans look terrible. Looks like this year is gonna be a good year for guys with irrigation or get the small heavy rains and a bust for those without. Corn always looks the same to me wherever it is grown, but when I moved here I had never seen beans so tall. Beans usually grow tall enough here to hide all but a deers head, most are only calf high if that so far.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Latest for tomorrow from the SPC....the energy that caused the SD/IA derecho pictured below will be the trigger for the event tomorrow here..


...IN/OH/KY into the Carolinas...
A modest northwest flow regime will exist across the region with mid
and high-level winds around 30 kt. At the surface, an east-west
oriented cold front will sink south across IL/IN/OH with high
pressure over the Upper Great Lakes. Farther east, a weak surface
trough will redevelop from eastern VA into the central Carolinas.
Both of these features will provide low-level convergence and lift
for a diurnal thunderstorm threat.

A few lingering storms are possible Wednesday morning from northern
IL into OH, as MLCAPE will be strong and the moist air mass
uncapped. This activity could produce a few strong wind gusts or
small hail early. The primary risk will develop after 18Z when
heating contributes to stronger instability. One or more clusters of
southeastward-moving storms will be possible, producing severe gusts
and isolated hail.

Farther east, storms should be most numerous after 18Z from northern
GA into the Carolinas, with moist and tall CAPE profiles favoring
locally severe downbursts. Strong heating will also favor vigorous
pulsing updrafts capable of hail. Storm coverage from WV into VA is
more questionable as some models indicate a bit of drying from the
northwest, also reflected in lower HREF thunder probabilities.
Isolated strong wind gusts appear most probable over these areas.

Some crazy shots out of the midwest where the derecho event today really turned everything a eerie green...


 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The pitt greenvile airport is now at an 8 inch deficit fir thebyear and is about 1.25 inches above its driest year to date. Rain chances look really good the best 5 days though.
 

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Wanchese

Twelve Pointer
Heck of a storm we’re having this evening. As soon as it hit the sound it exploded. I was on my way back across the bridge from Nags Head when it built up. Couple waterspouts north of the bridge, pretty sure I drove through one of them on the bridge. Saw lightning hit the marsh at Pirates Cove and set it on fire and at the same time lightning hit a house in KDH and set it on fire.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models still have several more lines of storms effecting most of central and eastern NC the next several days......my backyard did not get anything today.....just down the road got several inches....them's the breaks this time of year.
 

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
My corner of Wake County has gotten exactly 0 rain this week. I drove through a monsoon and hail 5 miles south on Wednesday and it missed us by that much or less again yesterday.. storms all around us but the house is bone dry. Not unusual for June/July to get a dry spell but for all the storms we have had this week it is a bit odd for all of them to miss.
 

QuietButDeadly

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Had storm all around me yesterday afternoon and early evening but only a sprinkle at the house. Not enough to settle the dust. Woke up this morning to overcast with a light shower than started to pick up in intensity. Looked at the radar and had a tiny pop up shower right on top of my location. Nothing else for 50 miles.

Ended up with .3" and that did settle the dust. Humidity is crazy high now so maybe some more showers will pop up.
 

bwfarms

Old Mossy Horns
Alright… I KNOW you must have gotten the good out of this line of storms?

Funny, I just started to type.

Yesterday I left the farm and it started raining big drops. A weird pattern for sure, this one built from due east and dumped an inch. A little driveway washout.

I was trimming fence lines this afternoon and knew I needed to stop before 6 and headed home as it starts. We got a good flash filling the ditches. Don’t know total from this band it’s still falling.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
STRONG downpour in my part of Raleigh right now. Definitely will be localized flooding! No winds or lightning associated so we're all happy.
Dumping big time in Pitt County right now. Rain rates are high and it's piling up quickly.
 

Hunterreed

Twelve Pointer
1.09" overnight last night. 0.6" this evening. That's 3 good soaking rains this week.
I have been in the gap again since Tuesday only a few tenths here,definitely brought on the humidity. Last two afternoons west side of Highrock lake got soaked,eating a burger at tamarack Friday couldn't see the other side of the lake
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
all you gotta do to get rain is have baseball/softball state tourneys scheduled. :p
Got boys in leland and girls in carthage and both getting dicey because of rain.
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
all you gotta do to get rain is have baseball/softball state tourneys scheduled. :p
Got boys in leland and girls in carthage and both getting dicey because of rain.
Yup. We have boys in Locust and another team in Leland. 1st game of the state tourney got called for lightning. 1-run game in the 4th, 2 outs, and my son had 1 ball on him. He gets to sit on that for 2 days now thanks to the rain today.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The cold front that had been stalled over the area delivering all those storms drifted south of NC resulting in the almost cool day yesterday with a lot of places near their record low high for the date....we will warm back up and then have another solid chance of big slow moving storms and showers Thur-Sun with another front washing out over NC....
 

bwfarms

Old Mossy Horns
The cold front that had been stalled over the area delivering all those storms drifted south of NC resulting in the almost cool day yesterday with a lot of places near their record low high for the date
As long as it stays overcast a few days. I don’t want this well deserved moisture lost to evaporation.
 
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