Spring/Summer 2022 Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
What is an MDR?

The main development region of the ATL....basically the fae eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic.....this time of the year most storms form closer to home in the GOM or western Caribbean...the MDR season usually does not pick up until later in July into Aug....sometimes called the Cape Verde season since storms tend to form much further east......

  1. The set of conditions that have produced the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995 are likely to continue in 2022. These conditions include warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), along with weaker vertical wind shear and an enhanced West African monsoon. The MDR spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996).
 

Hunterreed

Ten Pointer
Storms moved through just north and east of me again missing by about 3 miles. If it doesn't rain before the end of the month the total here for June will be 0.17 inches. For all of May I think 1.5 inches is generous for the total. There is a lot of field corn in this area that has yet to get waist high and soybeans that have yet to receive any rainfall
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models still showing a stalled front over NC with numerous days of showers and storms.....would be a big help.....I will take 4-5" of rain over the next couple of weeks. The bullseye for rain is right over the part of the state that needs it most....

1656687582140.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
It sure is. Looks just like a hurricane.

Its a well organized mid level low...at the surface though there is not a well defined low level circulation, though it does look like a tropical storm developing, and if it can work down to the surface it could become a threat for that but it really does not have time to get it done probably...either way the models bring it ashore around the SC/NC border and drift it NE across coastal NC......its mostly small and has little in the way of showers and storms over land....will be fun to watch it though you never know it might overperform and give us some decent rain.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Its a well organized mid level low...at the surface though there is not a well defined low level circulation, though it does look like a tropical storm developing, and if it can work down to the surface it could become a threat for that but it really does not have time to get it done probably...either way the models bring it ashore around the SC/NC border and drift it NE across coastal NC......its mostly small and has little in the way of showers and storms over land....will be fun to watch it though you never know it might overperform and give us some decent rain.

Well it had time after all, unfortunately for rain chances this is a very small system, almost all the impact will be coastal unless something unexpected happens. this storm structure wise is lopsided and most of the rain is east of track....




1656756766622.png
 

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
We were in Edisto yesterday and those bands were coming in. They were just standard light rain, but about supper time it changed to a driving set in rain with a gale warning. You could definitely feel the shift in conditions.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Lots of models showing this or just 1?

All of them really....there is a general 30-50% chance of rain for pretty much anywhere in NC over the next 6-7 days, but more so for the eastern half were the drought is the worst....this does not mean that everyone will get rain every day but by the end of the period most everyone will have had a few good days where they get numerous showers and storms....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
TS Colin getting sheared to death reducing rain chances for most of NC.......about the biggest impact will be the winds offshore screwing up the holiday offshore fishing....
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@bwfarms Corn is toast here. There are a few early planted fields that will be salvaged that will still be low yield. Some corn has mostly died and have no ears on them.
 

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