Spring/Summer 2022 Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring so new thread.....this is the time of the year that see jackets in the mornings and shorts in the afternoons....also as most of you know Mar-May is traditionally tornado season in the Carolinas.....on that note the models are showing some chance of a severe weather setup next week around the 9/10th, at the very least that period looks very wet, followed by a strong cold front with temps cooling back off...typically we can freeze anywhere in the state till mid late April....and May for the western part....latest 1" of snow in my backyard is April 11th so while extremely unlikely to see significant snow this late it can happen....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
There will be a "back door" cold front tonight so temps will actually drop east to west across NC this evening.....

Models still holding on to a sharp but quick arctic blast the map below would be the high temps for the day.....still a ways out so maybe it wont be as strong as modeled now....

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Little late but the trend has been colder and now even seeing a run or two showing some chances of a few flakes flying....


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Pretty significant storm/front in the models next Saturday, potential for some severe storms as well, and it would be very very windy in front of the front and a big cool off after it......the NW Mts could see significant snows.....heck all the western slopes that do well in NW flow events for that matter.

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Sat night lows on the latest Euro, CMC and GFS suggest low to mid 20's for most of the state, teens for the foothills....lots of trees budding or flowering here though this should be the only hard freeze in the quick moving shot of arctic air....still a solid 8-10 hrs with most of it well below freezing.

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NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring so new thread.....this is the time of the year that see jackets in the mornings and shorts in the afternoons....also as most of you know Mar-May is traditionally tornado season in the Carolinas.....on that note the models are showing some chance of a severe weather setup next week around the 9/10th, at the very least that period looks very wet, followed by a strong cold front with temps cooling back off...typically we can freeze anywhere in the state till mid late April....and May for the western part....latest 1" of snow in my backyard is April 11th so while extremely unlikely to see significant snow this late it can happen....
And here I sit on March 9th eating my lunch in my truck listening to the chilly rain hit the roof. News said major front coming soon. Nice prediction!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Saturday is gonna be rough, lots of wind over central and eastern NC even without storms....generally the chances for severe weather are low, but the actual surface low track the last few runs is a bit more worrisome, a strong SLP tracking up the western piedmont of NC is how we can see tornados in Carolina Alley....right now though its looking pretty unlikely all the ingredients are there for anything major to take place.

Winds could gust well into the 40's though for a lot of central and eastern NC and the mts will be their normal windy with a big NW front passage, Grandfather Mt liable to get 100 mph gust.....might even be some talk of snow showers especially northern third of the state along the VA border. The temp drop with this one should be fast...eastern NC could go from 70 to 25 in 12ish hrs lol.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models still talking up the winds Saturday over central and eastern NC.....could see several hrs of winds gusting 45-50 mph....

This is from the overnight discussion from the Raleigh NWS office.....that is big wind just off the surface so these maps might not be as overdone as usual

This will help draw plenty of low-
level moisture from the Atlantic, with PW values of 1.25-1.75
inches. Thus bands of widespread showers will move in from the south
and west along and ahead of the cold front on Friday night into
early Saturday morning, when POPs are categorical. While instability
will be limited due to the time of day and widespread precipitation,
a few storms with damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes still
can`t be ruled out given the very strong low/mid level wind fields
(including 50-70 kts just 0.5 km off the ground) and rich low-level
moisture. The most favorable location for this is in the eastern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain which will have the best opportunity for
some daytime heating before the cold front moves through, and where
models show SBCAPE as high as ~500 J/kg on Saturday morning.


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
From the Storm Prediction Center for Sat morning....

1646987717531.png

Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints should be mostly in the 60s F from northern
Florida to eastern North Carolina. A squall line should be ongoing
at the start of the period near the front, and this feature will
move quickly eastward across northern Florida, southeast Georgia and
the eastern Carolinas during the morning.

The mid-level jet is forecast to translate quickly northeastward
into the eastern Carolinas during the morning, where instability and
shear will become maximized. Due to this, the greatest severe threat
associated with the line is forecast to be in the eastern Carolinas
Saturday morning. A band of focused large-scale ascent combined with
very strong wind fields will be favorable for wind damage along the
more intense parts of the squall line, as it approaches the coast. A
tornado threat will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in
the line.


This is the hi res NAM model showing the squall line tapping into that very strong low level jet, these values are peak potential gust, I dont think we see widespread 60-70 mph wind gust but it certainly is possible in the more intense parts of the squall line to see those kind of numbers, , however gust 40-50 over most of the area seems reasonable even outside of the intense squalls...the temp change with the front will be dramatic as well with temps crashing 20+ degrees in minutes, temps will be near freezing by dark and we should see a long 6-10 hr hard freeze.

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Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
I checked and my grass seed is just getting it's sprout going...yep..time for high teens and low 20s for 12 hours for two days straight. That ought to be really good for those fresh young sprouts.
And they are almost giving Kentucky 31 away now....only 50% higher than last year.
I'm blaming all of it on Biden.
 

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Wind modeling is one of the things that I have observed over time, admittedly anecdotally, where the models always tend to over bake it. Maybe they are correct or more accurate at 500 feet or something, but, I rarely recall where the sustained winds are anywhere close to the projections with the projections almost always being on the high side (whether we are talking velocity, duration or both)
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Wind modeling is one of the things that I have observed over time, admittedly anecdotally, where the models always tend to over bake it. Maybe they are correct or more accurate at 500 feet or something, but, I rarely recall where the sustained winds are anywhere close to the projections with the projections almost always being on the high side (whether we are talking velocity, duration or both)
Generally taking 40-50% off the gusts is a good bet.

Gonna be a fast hitting system in the morning. Expect winds to increase in the morning with a squall line racing east with severe weather possible. A very rapid and sharp temp drop followed by flurries and snow showers in the afternoon for northeast NC.
 

Hunterreed

Ten Pointer
Nothing like a couple of nice warm days to make a cold front suck even more. That northwest wind is going to chill to the bone and along with the sharp pressure drop I'm going to be hobbling around like I'm 80 by Sunday
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Wind modeling is one of the things that I have observed over time, admittedly anecdotally, where the models always tend to over bake it. Maybe they are correct or more accurate at 500 feet or something, but, I rarely recall where the sustained winds are anywhere close to the projections with the projections almost always being on the high side (whether we are talking velocity, duration or both)

Yeah the problem is the maps show peak potential gust for a area, this means that only a few places are likely to even see anything close to that. There will be places in NC that see gust 50-70 mph tomorrow, they will most likely be isolated. though this squall line looks stout so maybe this ends up being more widespread we wont know till it happens. There will be general winds gusting into the upper 30's to 40's though for just about everyone RDU to the east....on both sides of the front. After the front it gets cold fast, and very windy.....with some snow showers possible lol....crazy day......then hard freeze overnight with wind chills in the single digits by dawn.

My area forecast for tomorrow from NWS

Saturday
Rain showers before 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature rising to near 65 by 8am, then falling to around 36 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 23 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
It was in the 60’s at lunch time here, now we have 2” of snow. 🤦🏿‍♂️

Wont get 2" but there is a decent chance that most folks at least see some flurries/snow showers tomorrow afternoon in NC.....about 6-8 hrs after temps in the 60's

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QuietButDeadly

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Been snowing off and on in my neck of the woods for about an hour and a half. Temp is not down to 32 yet so it is still melting.
 

beard&bow

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Been snowing here, since at least 5am. Noticed a layer of ice and sleet under the snow at 6:30... porch was a little slick. I reckon we'd see more than just a ground-covering, if we weren't getting pounded by the wind.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
You folks that plan on being outside early tomorrow morning ( going to church etc ) need to be ready for wind chill values in the teens.....never fear though it will be back in the 70's by mid to end of the week.
 
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