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Odds on Permit Hunt Draws

KrisB

Six Pointer
I was looking at the permit hunts for turkeys on game lands today and saw that they now have a thing that notes your odds of being drawn for that game land. I don't remember that being there last year.

Apart from the statistics of being drawn, do the odds mean anything?

For example, Rocky Run GL, you have a 95% chance of being drawn, Sandhills GL is a 55% chance, and Dan River GL is a 9% chance.

Are the game lands with much higher odds of being drawn (like 87% or 95%) the less popular places and the game lands with much lower odds the more popular?
 

np307

Six Pointer
I couldn't find the page with draw odds, but since the permit hunts dont have any points system the odds will just be number of tags divided by number of applicants. If I recall, there are 200 total Sandhills turkey tags. Sounds like there were just under 400 applicants last year if the odds were 55%. In theory, lower odds might mean better hunts, but it could also be due to low tag allocation. If low tag allocation is due to low turkey numbers, then a low odds hunt may not be that great of a hunt. Generally though, I'd say that the lower the odds, the better the hunt.
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
They've had them percentages for few years now. It can vary from year to year depending on applicants but its probably a pretty good indicator of success rate. Either way its all lottery luck if you know of less popular place that has few birds then for sure put in doesn't have to be loaded with Turkey your just looking for couple.
 

KrisB

Six Pointer
I couldn't find the page with draw odds
It's in ALVIN. If you go in and click that you want to buy a license/add a new item, then choose permit hunts from the list, then click the number next to each game land, a box pops up with the dates and odds of being drawn.
 

Part-time hunter

Ten Pointer
I was looking at the permit hunts for turkeys on game lands today and saw that they now have a thing that notes your odds of being drawn for that game land. I don't remember that being there last year.

Apart from the statistics of being drawn, do the odds mean anything?

For example, Rocky Run GL, you have a 95% chance of being drawn, Sandhills GL is a 55% chance, and Dan River GL is a 9% chance.

Are the game lands with much higher odds of being drawn (like 87% or 95%) the less popular places and the game lands with much lower odds the more popular?
Like Harrison Ford said, "Never quote me the odds!"
 

DuckyDave

Four Pointer
To be precise (and at risk of being a a-hole) your Mathematical odds of being drawn are 1-(odds of not being drawn ). Been through this with son in Texas applying for permits there--EXTREMELY DISCOURAGING!
 

KrisB

Six Pointer
To be precise (and at risk of being a a-hole) your Mathematical odds of being drawn are 1-(odds of not being drawn ). Been through this with son in Texas applying for permits there--EXTREMELY DISCOURAGING!
Sorry to hear. I know it's very discouraging. I'm not really understanding why a few of these game lands are being listed in ALVIN as having 95% or 55% or even 33% odds of being drawn when there are apparently some members of this forum who have never been drawn and they've been applying for permit hunts for years.
 
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