Greg
Old Mossy Horns
Did the documentary talk about the root causes of the 2008 recession?
How far is the market going to fall?
- Thread starter NCST8GUY
- Start date
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
yall are justifying your passive investing. the riches you have accumulated may be in spite of that posture not because of following it. In other words you stay in and ole black swan rolls in you are screwed. can you say Mueller?
I would be very disappointed if most of you here couldn't beat the s&p simply by minimizing your exposure when YOU see the proverbial poop hitting the fan.
You know enough about everything else, stocks aren't rocket science.
I would be very disappointed if most of you here couldn't beat the s&p simply by minimizing your exposure when YOU see the proverbial poop hitting the fan.
You know enough about everything else, stocks aren't rocket science.
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
I justify it in the fact that professionals trained in viewing trends and macro economic issues that can affect the stock market don't often get it right. How many people said "it's different this time" when discussing stock valuations during the dot-com crash of 1999. Or all the people not worrying about the real estate bubble of 2007. Even today, you can't get a straight answer on some issues. Just this year, here are two articles conflicting with each other.
Silicon Valley tech bubble is larger than it was in 2000, and the end is coming
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/tech-bubble-is-larger-than-in-2000-and-the-end-is-coming.html
5 Charts That Prove We're Not in Another Tech Bubble
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...were-not-in-another-tech-bubble/#3383732660da
Should I be putting money in tech stocks or not?
https://grow.acorns.com/how-much-im...-really-have-on-the-stock-market/?gsi=4bhr7bw
As an investor, you’d be wise to remember the market’s long, positive history and continue to look forward to your own long-term goals. As long as you stick with your carefully planned strategy and maintain a well-diversified portfolio, you are highly likely to achieve your goals—no matter who is president.
So to your question "can you say Mueller?", I'm not too concerned either way. I'm investing for the long term and the trend has been up no matter who is the President.
I had the guys from Fisher's Investments bugging me,,,wanting me to give them my stuff to handle,,,I thought "self,,,talk to these pros,,maybe they have something",,,
and I did,,,,listened to their spiel,,,analyzed their results since they began,,,which happened to line up with when I stopped adding money to one account,,,then looked at my results ,,,,
I beat their returns,,,
How? By doing what homebrewale and others discuss,,,,putting my money on good no-loads with long term results and letting it ride,,,,
I'll ride whatever down turn we may or may not have coming,,,,cause in 10 years it will be 200% higher than it is today,,,,,,,
or it won't be,,,,,,,but I know that trying to "time it" is just so much fooling yourself,,,,so many variables,,,if pros can't do it amatuers sure won't except by blind luck
see when I started investing I promised myself that whatever money I put in there was "spent",,,and wherever it ended up was good by me,,,,,
and I did,,,,listened to their spiel,,,analyzed their results since they began,,,which happened to line up with when I stopped adding money to one account,,,then looked at my results ,,,,
I beat their returns,,,
How? By doing what homebrewale and others discuss,,,,putting my money on good no-loads with long term results and letting it ride,,,,
I'll ride whatever down turn we may or may not have coming,,,,cause in 10 years it will be 200% higher than it is today,,,,,,,
or it won't be,,,,,,,but I know that trying to "time it" is just so much fooling yourself,,,,so many variables,,,if pros can't do it amatuers sure won't except by blind luck
see when I started investing I promised myself that whatever money I put in there was "spent",,,and wherever it ended up was good by me,,,,,
MJ74
Old Mossy Horns
It's not timing the market, it's time IN the market.
I ride the ups and downs.
sent from...... Tapatalk
I ride the ups and downs.
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oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
past performance meets nothing in terms of future returns. why in the world would you sit and watch it waste away when you could park it in a safe fund in seconds?
read Daniel Kahneman for some fine easy explanations on why your bias is wrong. it does not always HAVE to go up.
you can lose what you have amassed in years in a few days with the passive approach.
Buy good stocks with long record of increasing dividends year over year and let it ride. Reinvest the dividends. There are some really good dividend stocks cheap right now with some yielding 6-8% so with money invested the growth long term is just icing on the cake.
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
........................
I moved funds and allotments yesterday, yeah I know I chickened out, but I'm also tired of the recent trend of the loud sucking sound of my money disappearing from the international and higher risk profiles.
I'm also going to take a loan out from my TSA account to replace my broken HVAC unit, I found out this AM it has to be replaced. I'm not gonna let them suck me dry without acting on what I have the ability to.
I'm also going to take a loan out from my TSA account to replace my broken HVAC unit, I found out this AM it has to be replaced. I'm not gonna let them suck me dry without acting on what I have the ability to.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
Blamed it heavily on the horrible housing loans from years before that were coming to haunt the lenders. Lehman was first, B of A was a couple of days away from folding, McDonalds largest franchise owners wasn't going to be able to pay THOUSANDS of employees next payroll. Then the others would fall, then AIG would collapse.
Also the market has swung 400 points down, 200 back up, 100 more down, in the last hour lol.
Both parties to blame republican rider added to a bill and Bill Clinton signed it. I’m sure both were aware of what they were doing and heavily lobbied.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
It went wall the way back to Carter, though he wasn't mentioned. But it was blatantly obvious.
Greg
Old Mossy Horns
The subprime lending fiasco was pushed and defended by the liberal democrats, Frank, Dodd, obama, to name a few. Bush II tried to address it, and those folks always deflected it away.
Greg
Old Mossy Horns
And yes, I believe it was started by James Earl Carter. A compassionate liberal who thought that everybody should own their own house .... even if they couldn't AFFORD to do so.
I've been a lender for over 30 years. One thing folks don't talk about is that the WAY the housing loans were handled is part of what caused the crash. If there was a bundle (bundles used for derivative marketing) of 100 loans and ONE was bad, the entire bundle was labeled bad by regulators. Things were no where as bad as they seemed. The crisis was manufactured. That is not to say bad loans weren't made. They were. But in large part the crash was caused by uninformed panic on the part of regulators who did not understand what they were looking at. A lot of banking regulators are fresh out of school and have little to no real world experience. Box checkers. Conversations with them are mind boggling.
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Worst week in ten years.
i'de say you were on top of this one.
Read where they asked one expert if this was a bear market.....he said "yes grizzly"......got a nice 4 day break maybe it can settle down and make up some ground to end out the year.
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
That'll depend on if the government is still shut down or not after Christmas.
downeastnc
Old Mossy Horns
Your right just checked right now the Dow futures are sitting around -542...good thing they dont trade for the next 4 days.
Market closed down over 650 points today, possibly headed for worst December since the crash of '29.
Enjoy Christmas with the family, heavily spike the eggnog and under no circumstances look at your 401K or other investments.
Enjoy Christmas with the family, heavily spike the eggnog and under no circumstances look at your 401K or other investments.
Zach's Grandpa
Old Mossy Horns
Settle down there will be no crash or recession. Lowest unemployment in fifty years, profit margins still high, fuel prices lowest in at least a decade, and consumer spending out the roof.
The mostly idiots on Wall Street depend on The WSJ and Bloomberg to tell them how the economy is “really doing “. Both of those publications are liberal Trump hating fake news outlets. They are going to do everything in their power to prevent his re-election. Their scare right now is that companies aren’t spending money on equipment. They overlook the fact that companies have enough equipment and are spending on training their employees. Training budgets are at an all time high across the board.
I can assure you that big time investors are looking at their “progressive accounting” set of books with a huge smile. Progressive accounting is based on phantom numbers of what will be on the books somewhere down the road. Not popular with business in general, in fact pretty stupid, but widely used by the “money changers “ on Wall Street.
The mostly idiots on Wall Street depend on The WSJ and Bloomberg to tell them how the economy is “really doing “. Both of those publications are liberal Trump hating fake news outlets. They are going to do everything in their power to prevent his re-election. Their scare right now is that companies aren’t spending money on equipment. They overlook the fact that companies have enough equipment and are spending on training their employees. Training budgets are at an all time high across the board.
I can assure you that big time investors are looking at their “progressive accounting” set of books with a huge smile. Progressive accounting is based on phantom numbers of what will be on the books somewhere down the road. Not popular with business in general, in fact pretty stupid, but widely used by the “money changers “ on Wall Street.
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
you better define "crash" ZG. It's looking pretty ugly. you going with a market "correction". LOL
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
WOW! Today HAS to be a record right?
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
from swings points or % wise on consecutive trading days.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
points for one day?
oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
not quite. yet. There is still time.
not quite. yet. There is still time.
Zach's Grandpa
Old Mossy Horns
I’m going with what has always been the rule for investing in the stock market. It’s a long term investment that you cannot get too excited about either up or down for the short term. Most of what we are seeing is profit taking and setting up for more profit making. That along with the effort to keep Trump from using it to campaign for 2020.
Let’s see where it’s at in six months and then determine whether there was truly a crash.
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oldest school
Old Mossy Horns
looking good for the record. up a lot since my last post. good call.
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
Wiki already chenged it to today!!!!
1000 point gain is a nice Christmas present, I'll take it!
And I concur with ZG on this one; market crashes, recessions / depressions are always only able to be recognized months or years after they've happened.
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And I concur with ZG on this one; market crashes, recessions / depressions are always only able to be recognized months or years after they've happened.
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