turkeyfoot
Old Mossy Horns
Very reason I'm not buying guns or ammo now but squirrel away little for the fire sale
Great Depression Part 2
- Thread starter nckeith
- Start date
DC-DXT
Twelve Pointer
MIL and wife’s stepdad own 2 pool & spa businesses, they have been going wide open and are booked months out. They’re having trouble ordering pools or liners because they aren‘t available.
red neck richie
Banned
Keeping up with the Jones's will bite you in the arse if you dont make as much money as the Jones's. Failure to prepare on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part! People are spoiled and clueless! Its the everyone gets a trophy mentality.
Ceehawk37
Ten Pointer
Bunch of folks got forced into retirement due to staff cuts. Others have been working from home and likely won’t have to return to an office even after this is over. Might be one reason RVs and homes are selling like hotcakes. If commuting to work is no longer a factor, that changes the game for a lot of folks in terms of where they live and how they live. Not saying there isn’t a number of people making poor financial decisions as well. Just another factor in this whole thing.
Roanoke
Eight Pointer
Taxes are going to sky rocket in the coming years. I can not get over the 200% increase in weekly unemployment. Fifty-one million Americans getting $900 per week not to work is bull. That cost us 46 Billion per week or 184 billion per month. The height of a stack of 100,000,000,000 (one hundred billion) one dollar bills measures 6,786.6 miles. A column of bills this high would extend 28 times higher than the orbiting International Space Station.
Glad that extra 600 ended last week. Bet people are going back to work now. PPL is not a LOAN. It is well fair and the burden comes back to the tax payers.
Get ready boys because it is coming.
Individuals and business need to plan for economic downturns. It is not the governments responsibility to pay you bills.
Individuals and business need to plan for economic downturns. It is not the governments responsibility to pay you bills.
Glad that extra 600 ended last week. Bet people are going back to work now. PPL is not a LOAN. It is well fair and the burden comes back to the tax payers.
Get ready boys because it is coming.
Individuals and business need to plan for economic downturns. It is not the governments responsibility to pay you bills.
Individuals and business need to plan for economic downturns. It is not the governments responsibility to pay you bills.
Last edited:
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
I'm still waiting for those deals to show up. Also waiting for people to need to sell land that would be good for hunting.
Roanoke
Eight Pointer
What keeps me awake at night is how high land taxes could increase.
Most of the folks that have been affected so far are on the lower end of the wage scale. the higher wage folks are just starting to see the effects. The money is coming from savings.. not actual money in a savings account but general savings due to not doing things..
My fuel bill for vehicles has been more than cut in half, more like 2/3 down since this started that is putting several hundred dollars a month back in our pocket and when you factor vehicle maintenance into that (tires, wipers, oil changes, brakes, etc) it adds up to a lot of money I am not spending that I normally would. In addition, not having to buy cloths or shoes for work for the wife and I, not going out to eat, no big vacation this year, loss of spring turkey season out west, etc. those that still have a job are just shifting what they spend money on.
I am guilty, all that stuff above has allowed me to get home projects done, new windows coming soon, redoing my deck, getting a hot tub I have been wanting.. all of that and not having to change anything (outside of what I was forced to change) in the budget.
My fuel bill for vehicles has been more than cut in half, more like 2/3 down since this started that is putting several hundred dollars a month back in our pocket and when you factor vehicle maintenance into that (tires, wipers, oil changes, brakes, etc) it adds up to a lot of money I am not spending that I normally would. In addition, not having to buy cloths or shoes for work for the wife and I, not going out to eat, no big vacation this year, loss of spring turkey season out west, etc. those that still have a job are just shifting what they spend money on.
I am guilty, all that stuff above has allowed me to get home projects done, new windows coming soon, redoing my deck, getting a hot tub I have been wanting.. all of that and not having to change anything (outside of what I was forced to change) in the budget.
Yep - The folks who have not been impacted job wise are saving a lot of money if they are working from home. I know we have. Lunches, gas, etc. Also thinking of selling some rental property high in the hot market and then waiting til things cool down to reinvest. I think the main thing you will see is a larger divide between the haves (not the wealthy but the upper middle class) and the have-nots (folks working in the service industries that have been hit hard). If things ever get back to normal there are going to a be a lot of used RVs for sale.
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
I kicked around renting a motorhome for a few runs to South Dakota and Texas. A lot of people are funding their motorhomes by renting them out and it's not cheap. Low end is $1200 week, 100 miles per day, 35 cents mile after.
So I'm on the fence about it. Maybe I should buy one and rent it out. Then sell it while the market is hot.
So I'm on the fence about it. Maybe I should buy one and rent it out. Then sell it while the market is hot.
shurshot
Ten Pointer
Your fears Roanoke came true for me couple months ago!!
Don’t have any recreational land other than a 27 acre property (house and impoundment) in Pamlico Co. but got a “new” tax assessment from the county stating my tax value had increased 640%!! I wasn’t alone, everyone who had recreational land got hit hard. Needless to say I appealed their value and got a reduction. But it’s still mighty high. Only time I’d want that is when I sell .....but I’ll keep till I’m no longer to physically hunt or sit there and watch the birds.
thandy
Ten Pointer
We bought a new to us camper a few weeks ago. Found a good deal but more than I would have paid last year. The good part is I will sale my popup for the same price I paid for it 3 or 4 years ago. Went on vacation with my BIL and his family and he "worked" from home the whole time we were there.
30/06
Twelve Pointer
I think there will be a crunch soon. Spoke to buddies in the last week or so a contractor and HVAC guy. Both are wide open but can’t get materials and equipment. Prices are going to skyrocket! Even food has gone way up, we’re spending $30+ more a week on groceries and eating most of our veggies from the garden. Once people start traveling to work again demand for gas will go up as will the price.
That’s my opinion of the day, worth as much as you payed to read it.
That’s my opinion of the day, worth as much as you payed to read it.
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
I saw the craziness of people spending money this past week. I was in Academy Sports this past weekend. In the firearm's department, I thought they were going out of business because every firearm except for a few shotguns were gone. I asked the sales person if it was due to not getting supply or because of demand. Answer was both. They're not getting as many shipped to the store and every one is sold when it hits the shelf.
shurshot
Ten Pointer
You can directly relate that to the “Defund the Police” movement and riots.
Maybe Trump’s hard hitting 919 advertisement is making its mark too.
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
Yes, but I'm relating it back to the initial post that said there could be deals in one year on firearms. People buying a firearm still requires money which may or may not be in short supply depending on how Covid affected the person's income.
shurshot
Ten Pointer
Gotcha ....
JONOV
Old Mossy Horns
I wonder how many dealers cut their orders for RV's, boats, etc, in advance of the pandemic out of fear that they would be stuck with unsellable inventory they had floor planned.
I wonder how many firearm manufacturers, RV builders, boat factories, etc, cut production fr the same reasons. I was at a gun shop a few weeks ago and was told that Ruger had been shut down for some time.
And, even without doing something dumb like cashing a 401K, how many folks saw the $4K they had for the family vacation, or the money for the kid's summer camp, or money they stopped spending on daycare, and decided to monetize it.
People were buying guns before that movement took off. I don't think anyone with half a brain went out and bought a gun because of that commercial; the rioting? That probably did sell some guns.
I wonder how many firearm manufacturers, RV builders, boat factories, etc, cut production fr the same reasons. I was at a gun shop a few weeks ago and was told that Ruger had been shut down for some time.
And, even without doing something dumb like cashing a 401K, how many folks saw the $4K they had for the family vacation, or the money for the kid's summer camp, or money they stopped spending on daycare, and decided to monetize it.
People were buying guns before that movement took off. I don't think anyone with half a brain went out and bought a gun because of that commercial; the rioting? That probably did sell some guns.
HarryNC
Eight Pointer
My wife and I are remodeling our kitchen. The cabinet dealer said their normal lead time from the manufacturer is 1 to 2 weeks. The factory was partially shut down due to covid restrictions. It took 5 weeks to get the cabinets.
YanceyGreenhorn
Still Not a Moderator
Good point. Remind me to check the classifieds section of this site next summer
NCST8GUY
Frozen H20 Guy
I'm a fond reader of Ben Bernanke.
He was about an expert on the Great Depressions as might possibly exist today or back in 2008 when it was about to happen again.
From his readings, I believe he felt ANY depression will come down to loans, credits, and the buyers ability to payback such.
If we are seeing a run on items requiring loans (pools, houses, vehicles, etc.) without an equal rise in income, then we are in BIG trouble! People were APPROVED for and buying $200K houses in the 2000's earning $40K per year. On of course a variable rate. The buyers were too dumb to know what they were buying into, the lenders were too dumb to realize the loan they were selling was eventually GOING to BUST, and over the course of a few short months, millions of contracts did exactly both.....Bust!
I'm in saving mode right now. I'm still investing toes in the water type, but the huge gains made recently (many companies I trade are ABOVE February pre Covid highs) I'll take and wait. Even though some companies have somehow accidentally profited from this pandemic, the writing on the wall tells me this country has written way too many checks it can no longer cash.
Anyone remember what our National Debt was on November 7th, 2016? I do.
It's HIGHER now. And that is NOT because of CoVid!!!
He was about an expert on the Great Depressions as might possibly exist today or back in 2008 when it was about to happen again.
From his readings, I believe he felt ANY depression will come down to loans, credits, and the buyers ability to payback such.
If we are seeing a run on items requiring loans (pools, houses, vehicles, etc.) without an equal rise in income, then we are in BIG trouble! People were APPROVED for and buying $200K houses in the 2000's earning $40K per year. On of course a variable rate. The buyers were too dumb to know what they were buying into, the lenders were too dumb to realize the loan they were selling was eventually GOING to BUST, and over the course of a few short months, millions of contracts did exactly both.....Bust!
I'm in saving mode right now. I'm still investing toes in the water type, but the huge gains made recently (many companies I trade are ABOVE February pre Covid highs) I'll take and wait. Even though some companies have somehow accidentally profited from this pandemic, the writing on the wall tells me this country has written way too many checks it can no longer cash.
Anyone remember what our National Debt was on November 7th, 2016? I do.
It's HIGHER now. And that is NOT because of CoVid!!!
Roanoke
Eight Pointer
The feds need to stop printing money. The price of gold is another way to forecast what is to come. People will not be worried about their RV's, boats and vacation homes if this continues It could be that we will only be worried about the 3 G's.
Guns
Ground
&
Grub
On a positive note if we get a vaccine in the near future the economy could explode. I am not a scientist and do not understand the amount of time it takes for trials and manufacturing of the vaccine. My plan is to prep and BE PREPARED for a hard winter.
Guns
Ground
&
Grub
On a positive note if we get a vaccine in the near future the economy could explode. I am not a scientist and do not understand the amount of time it takes for trials and manufacturing of the vaccine. My plan is to prep and BE PREPARED for a hard winter.
nckeith
Ten Pointer
despite the keyboard economists around here and most forums, the reality is that America has lots of very wealthy people who are still working.
I highly doubt polaris and can am was financing unemployed people with 3 year loans on the basis of a 8-10 week bump of $600 per week in unemployment. The same for ultra low mortgages, RV's Boats etc.
I know you want to think these people will be defaulting any day now, but the real bump was a consumer shift in spending. No dry cleaning, no fuel, no travel, no travel sports, no meals out, no vacations etc. has pushed the American savings rate to an astounding 32% in April. Most employed americans had no where to spend their money.
Once things loosened up a little, they spent on things that can be used local like ATV's and boats and even second homes.
There always seems to be some schadenfreude going on and all the thousandaires think they are going to pick over the remains of boats and ATV's in a matter of months. The reality is, many hard assets are only going to up in price with the amount of money the Fed printed. The replacement costs are higher so the used prices will go up.
Add on the fact that production was slashed and the reality is that demand outstripped supply.
I've been shopping for boats used and new and most dealers are actually out of stock. Now maybe next year when other pursuits are available again some excess inventory hits the market, but its not going to be because Ford financed someone on unemployment, it’s going to be because the family decides to go to Disney again instead of ocean isle and tow a boat.
I was fly fishing the watauga and half of Charlotte and Winston floated past me.
I highly doubt polaris and can am was financing unemployed people with 3 year loans on the basis of a 8-10 week bump of $600 per week in unemployment. The same for ultra low mortgages, RV's Boats etc.
I know you want to think these people will be defaulting any day now, but the real bump was a consumer shift in spending. No dry cleaning, no fuel, no travel, no travel sports, no meals out, no vacations etc. has pushed the American savings rate to an astounding 32% in April. Most employed americans had no where to spend their money.
Once things loosened up a little, they spent on things that can be used local like ATV's and boats and even second homes.
There always seems to be some schadenfreude going on and all the thousandaires think they are going to pick over the remains of boats and ATV's in a matter of months. The reality is, many hard assets are only going to up in price with the amount of money the Fed printed. The replacement costs are higher so the used prices will go up.
Add on the fact that production was slashed and the reality is that demand outstripped supply.
I've been shopping for boats used and new and most dealers are actually out of stock. Now maybe next year when other pursuits are available again some excess inventory hits the market, but its not going to be because Ford financed someone on unemployment, it’s going to be because the family decides to go to Disney again instead of ocean isle and tow a boat.
I was fly fishing the watauga and half of Charlotte and Winston floated past me.
Last edited:
Homebrewale
Old Mossy Horns
I was just looking at how many miles I've driven lately. Before this pandemic hit, I was average 1550 miles per month. In the last two months, I've driven a total of 430 miles and since I changed oil in January, I've driven 3200 miles where the first 3 months was normal driving before teleworking started. Throw in the cancellation of my cruise out of Denmark and my spending is way down.
JONOV
Old Mossy Horns
I wouldn't. Property taxes go to schools, fire departments, police, roads...Those cost structures aren't likely to change drastically...and unless land takes an absolute nosedive in value with people dumping it, it's unlikely they're forced to jack them up.
I agree with you,
BUT that the Great Depression was caused by a stock market crash and people buying on margin, basically borrowing to buy stock, because "It's gonna make us money", which begat runs on banks which further exacerbated the situation.
The Recession of 2008 was caused by banks with zero lending standards lending and people borrowing on houses because they "It's REAL ESTATE, and it doesn't go down" causing the crash that brought the rest of the ship down.
Both were begat by overborrowing with the idea that the collateral would only appreciate...Not so much consumer spending...Though consumer's that overborrowed ended up getting burnt when the rest of the economy went down.
No lender in the world lends on an RV or a Car or a Boat without a clear understanding that the collateral WILL be worth far less than its bought for, no matter what, 100% of the time. Now, their lending standards can break them if they're too loose...
red neck richie
Banned
Its not difficult to figure out. Your W-2 tells me weather you can afford it or not. People were getting loans they had no business getting. For REAL ESTATE. Especially. The lenders knew this. That is why It is predatory lending. I wouldn't put it past them to do it again if they can get bailed out. Either by insurance money or tax payer money.
The first COVID stimulus package was about $3 billion, right? And there are about 360 million people here? That comes to over $8,000 for every man, woman, and child in the USA. That will buy a lot of RV's and jet skis.
Troutbum82
Twelve Pointer
I just made $4000 in an hour and a half doing COVID sanitization. When life throws you limes cut them up and put them in a corona!
bwfarms
Old Mossy Horns
Maybe if you meant trillion
The disgusting thing is all the money could have gone to American families to prop up the lower half but once again it bails out corporations. $34,000 is life changing for a lot of families of 4.
You can look at the spread of money like a welfare check or a reimbursement of ill gotten tax dollars.
Problem is Americans have been voting in the same idiots for decades and the cancer keeps spreading.