Great Depression Part 2

nckeith

Eight Pointer
Well I suppose it could go into the corona Virus thread, but darn, this is a truly a Historic decline
-32.9% GDP for 2nd quarter. I guess it can only get better from here. Not even the great depression suffered such a large contraction in the economy.
For all those suffering, I hope it's a hard but short contraction.
What's odd is I sold a youth 90cc polaris ATV in about 4 hours and it seems boats, ATV's cars etc are in short supply.
Weird time to be alive and truly count my blessings
 

wildcat3

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
Big drop today based on the numbers that came out. As keith said, it can only get better we hooe at least. The market is driven on whats likely to happen in the future so hopefully as we inch closer to a vaccine and some form of normalcy we will be able to pull out of this.
 

warhorse

Eight Pointer
Well I suppose it could go into the corona Virus thread, but darn, this is a truly a Historic decline
-32.9% GDP for 2nd quarter. I guess it can only get better from here. Not even the great depression suffered such a large contraction in the economy.
For all those suffering, I hope it's a hard but short contraction.
What's odd is I sold a youth 90cc polaris ATV in about 4 hours and it seems boats, ATV's cars etc are in short supply.
Weird time to be alive and truly count my blessings
I sold my daughters 100cc Chinese 4 wheeler in the same amount of time. The response to it was overwhelming, luckily the first person that responded is the one that came and purchased it.
 

Loganwayne

Six Pointer
home improvements, remodels are also sky high. some of our usual subs as so backed up they cant work us in. lumber is getting hard to come by with intermittent plant shutdowns while also having sales higher this year than the last two.
 

Buxndiverdux

Old Mossy Horns
Well I suppose it could go into the corona Virus thread, but darn, this is a truly a Historic decline
-32.9% GDP for 2nd quarter. I guess it can only get better from here. Not even the great depression suffered such a large contraction in the economy.
For all those suffering, I hope it's a hard but short contraction.
What's odd is I sold a youth 90cc polaris ATV in about 4 hours and it seems boats, ATV's cars etc are in short supply.
Weird time to be alive and truly count my blessings
Read the fine print..... 32.9% decline per seasonally adjusted annual rate... That is a fake news/ misleading headline if there ever has been one. Sheesh...


Don't get me wrong.... I agree things suck bad, but that is a sleezy way to report it.
 

buckshooter

Old Mossy Horns
Read the fine print..... 32.9% decline per seasonally adjusted annual rate... That is a fake news/ misleading headline if there ever has been one. Sheesh...


Don't get me wrong.... I agree things suck bad, but that is a sleezy way to report it.
yep , just more scared crap thrown against the wall hoping it will stick.
 

CarolinaReaper

Eight Pointer
Contributor
It LOOKS bad on the outside I suppose, especially going by the numbers. But from what I'v seen locally. Car dealerships are always busy, grocery stores STAY packed, sporting good stores can't keep a single decent firearm or ammo on the shelf for more than a day or two, clothing stores are staying pretty busy, A friend of the family who landscapes is balls to the wall right now. I agree, I ain't saying the numbers don't look like hot garbage but from a local perspective, things are as wide open as I'v ever seen.
 
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timber

Twelve Pointer
home improvements, remodels are also sky high. some of our usual subs as so backed up they cant work us in. lumber is getting hard to come by with intermittent plant shutdowns while also having sales higher this year than the last two.

Dont understand why there would be any shortage on wood. The mills here have us on quota plus have dropped the price lower than it’s been in a while. One of there excuses lumber not moving. Have a tract cutting now I bought last fall. Locked in most of the prices at the mill when bought it. If go by prices today he would get about $5.00 a ton less on todays prices than what we are paying him
 

chuckwagon

Button Buck
i work for a grill company and we are four times busier than we were last year and everybody i have spoken to in the industry is the same way
 

Loganwayne

Six Pointer
Dont understand why there would be any shortage on wood. The mills here have us on quota plus have dropped the price lower than it’s been in a while. One of there excuses lumber not moving. Have a tract cutting now I bought last fall. Locked in most of the prices at the mill when bought it. If go by prices today he would get about $5.00 a ton less on todays prices than what we are paying him
just got an email SPF increasing .40 to .55 a piece on monday
SYP increasing .25 to .70 a piece as well
 

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
the real fallout is just starting. Major corporations are starting to lay people off to appease investors because profit lines are sinking and people are the biggest expense.
 

30/06

Twelve Pointer
It is really bizarre. There are lots of people out of work, in theory people staying at home and not doing stuff but all recreational products are selling like funnel cakes at the state fair! Boats there are no inventory, try finding kayak accessories or tree stand parts. Nothing I tried to buy this week is in stock. There is also little real estate on the market, only stuff still out there is priced way high.

Wondering if there will be a collapse in 6-12 months. I can’t see how all this will continue, doesn’t seem like fundamentals drive the market or economy anymore.
 

Loganwayne

Six Pointer
It is really bizarre. There are lots of people out of work, in theory people staying at home and not doing stuff but all recreational products are selling like funnel cakes at the state fair! Boats there are no inventory, try finding kayak accessories or tree stand parts. Nothing I tried to buy this week is in stock. There is also little real estate on the market, only stuff still out there is priced way high.

Wondering if there will be a collapse in 6-12 months. I can’t see how all this will continue, doesn’t seem like fundamentals drive the market or economy anymore.
If there is a collapse, I think it will happen a lot sooner.
We are just now starting to really feel the bumps in the supply chain. Everyone freaked out and stocked up on everything and now warehouses are empty. So when a place shuts down for a few weeks there is no place to pull the inventory from something on the shelf.
Now that’s gonna start some panic


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

timberman1979

Button Buck
Dont understand why there would be any shortage on wood. The mills here have us on quota plus have dropped the price lower than it’s been in a while. One of there excuses lumber not moving. Have a tract cutting now I bought last fall. Locked in most of the prices at the mill when bought it. If go by prices today he would get about $5.00 a ton less on todays prices than what we are paying him
What part of the state are you in?
 

Hevi 13. Anson

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
I'd pay top $$ for a above ground pool. They must cure the Covid 19 when you add toilet paper. Biggest BS in my lifetime, we are 4 months out on work and receiving calls daily.
 

ABBD

Ten Pointer
Contributor
I hope folks with specs are very careful with their inventory. It‘s either going to be painful for the buyer or the builder in this environment. I’m booked out with renovations... that so far isn’t as affected as much as projects utilizing a lot of framing material. I expect it’s going to be felt across the board eventually though.
 

timekiller13

Twelve Pointer
Yes, it is difficult to process all of this. On one hand, you have reports like the above, showing how everything is in a downturn, economically. But, when I look around (at least my local area) I am thinking "where in the hell did all the money come from?"

Houses are selling so fast in my area, people are making offers on places they haven't even stepped foot in, just going by pictures online, because they sell in less than a day. Local car dealerships are packed. A long time family friend runs a local used car lot. He sells higher end ($15-$30k used cars) and he can't keep inventory. Trucks and SUVs sell the moment they roll onto the lot. I have another friend who is a manager at a local RV and boat dealership. He says "record sales" over the last 6 months. He told me that he has never seen RV/campers sell like they have. I believe him. I have been RV camping for the last several years. Places that we used to could get reservations at just a couple weeks in advance are now booked solid 6+ months out. I walk around campgrounds and my mind is blown at the sheer number of brand new travel trailers and 5th wheels that I see. We went camping last weekend in SC and I stopped and talked to quite a few campers and many of them said "Yep, just bought this brand new $65K 5th wheel 2 weeks ago!"

And don't get me started on local contractors in my area. I have been trying for 3 months to get someone to come and rebuild my fireplace. Everyone I talk to is booked for months on end. They say "more work than they have ever had before." Also quote "hard time getting some supplies." I gave up on my fireplace and started looking at getting someone to come and grade and pave my driveway. I have talked to 3 companies (2 of them I know the owners very well), all have told me "It will be at least 6 months before I can get to you, I got a huge back log of jobs."

Where is all this money coming from? Trump checks weren't that much.
 

Roanoke

Six Pointer
Yes, it is difficult to process all of this. On one hand, you have reports like the above, showing how everything is in a downturn, economically. But, when I look around (at least my local area) I am thinking "where in the hell did all the money come from?"

Houses are selling so fast in my area, people are making offers on places they haven't even stepped foot in, just going by pictures online, because they sell in less than a day. Local car dealerships are packed. A long time family friend runs a local used car lot. He sells higher end ($15-$30k used cars) and he can't keep inventory. Trucks and SUVs sell the moment they roll onto the lot. I have another friend who is a manager at a local RV and boat dealership. He says "record sales" over the last 6 months. He told me that he has never seen RV/campers sell like they have. I believe him. I have been RV camping for the last several years. Places that we used to could get reservations at just a couple weeks in advance are now booked solid 6+ months out. I walk around campgrounds and my mind is blown at the sheer number of brand new travel trailers and 5th wheels that I see. We went camping last weekend in SC and I stopped and talked to quite a few campers and many of them said "Yep, just bought this brand new $65K 5th wheel 2 weeks ago!"

And don't get me started on local contractors in my area. I have been trying for 3 months to get someone to come and rebuild my fireplace. Everyone I talk to is booked for months on end. They say "more work than they have ever had before." Also quote "hard time getting some supplies." I gave up on my fireplace and started looking at getting someone to come and grade and pave my driveway. I have talked to 3 companies (2 of them I know the owners very well), all have told me "It will be at least 6 months before I can get to you, I got a huge back log of jobs."

Where is all this money coming from? Trump checks weren't that much.
People were able to cash out portions of their 401K's without penalty due to Cares Act.
 

shurshot

Six Pointer
Well, I’m at a loss for all this buying too. Boats. What the hell? I know people want to recreate but dang things are expensive and depreciate quickly. I see a flood of upside down folks down the road. Like 2006-7, real estate market blew up then came crashing down. I know the good and the bad from it. Something is going to give later on and will be expedited if the Dementia Don gets elected.
 

timber

Twelve Pointer
There was a lot of money handed out from the gov because of the virus. Not talking the money handed to families. I know of few that got a fairly good chunk Several farmers as well as other businesses. Ones i talked to didnt get it because they needed it. Which most anybody can find sonething to do with extra money They got it because it was offered with chance the money wouldnt have be payed back. I know of some that put the money in a seperate account and let it sit in the bank and draw what little interest it will until they find out for sure if was a grant or loan
 

ABolt

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
A year from now there will be some deals on RVs, campers, firearms, and boats. Lots of impulse purchases on RVs when people could not fly to their vacation destination this summer.

Also suspect there will be some folks who wish they had not put in a pool...
 
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