Fall/Winter 2024 weather thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Florida seems fairly likely to get another probably major hurricane in areas that have had several hits already...it should stay east of the US by a fair margin after hitting Florida and models continue to show a pretty big shift to a much colder wetter pattern by Thanksgiving....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yuck...this is the latest GFS run and it matches the noon Euro....still it's just a possible solution and not remotely set in stone yet....however anyone with coastal or offshore plans needs to really watch this one...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_fh186-216.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
OBX going to get hammered tomorrow with a lot of rain and big wind as a low bombs off the coast ...even the sounds etc will be nasty. Looks like a few inches of rain over eastern NC in spots as well which is needed.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Finally a few model run with a freeze for most of NC....this would every close to the record for latest first freeze for Greenville NC which is Nov 30th assuming this is right and we finally get some actual cold air...

6Z this morning
1731611991373.png

12Z today
1731611756514.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
45/70 hunter said:
Bring on the skeeter killin' weather!!
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The trend is not our friend....latest run drops the deep cold from getting here, the upside is the overall pattern is changing so the models tend to be less accurate in the mid and long ranges....latest GFS does not have sub freezing temps in NC thru Dec 1st.
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
downeastnc said:
Florida seems fairly likely to get another probably major hurricane in areas that have had several hits already...it should stay east of the US by a fair margin after hitting Florida and models continue to show a pretty big shift to a much colder wetter pattern by Thanksgiving....
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you are as bad as the weather charlatans on YouTube. I watch all these dudes over there and they love to cherry pick the models and use these super wild model runs. Best guy out there is POW because he only goes out maybe 7 days and is realistic about stuff. you do the same thing as the clickbaiters and always love to post these far fetched long range models that seldom, if ever pan out. Your weather forecasting ability is only on par with you political insight.
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
downeastnc said:
The trend is not our friend....latest run drops the deep cold from getting here, the upside is the overall pattern is changing so the models tend to be less accurate in the mid and long ranges....latest GFS does not have sub freezing temps in NC thru Dec 1st.
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step away from the long range models......they suck.
 
thandy

thandy

Ten Pointer
Downeastnc keep doing what you are doing. Unlike some I understand that beyond 7 days is likely to change heck it changes inside of 7 days. I am no weather expert but I am smart enough to understand that :donk:donk:donk:donk changes. Bryguy hit the ignore button its that easy...
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
thandy said:
Downeastnc keep doing what you are doing. Unlike some I understand that beyond 7 days is likely to change heck it changes inside of 7 days. I am no weather expert but I am smart enough to understand that :donk:donk:donk:donk changes. Bryguy hit the ignore button its that easy...
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LOL.....well considering that any weather prediction past 5 days is nothing more then conjecture regardless of who does it. I watch enough of these guys that it is clear that long range models are pathetic and almost useless. So to post about them on any forum like they are set in stone is pointless. They are going to change almost every run. These models showed these huge cool downs since august and have missed almost all of them. Weather has to many variables to believe that anyone or any model can tell you anything specific much past a few days is a fallacy.
 
Firedog

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
bryguy said:
LOL.....well considering that any weather prediction past 5 days is nothing more then conjecture regardless of who does it. I watch enough of these guys that it is clear that long range models are pathetic and almost useless. So to post about them on any forum like they are set in stone is pointless. They are going to change almost every run. These models showed these huge cool downs since august and have missed almost all of them. Weather has to many variables to believe that anyone or any model can tell you anything specific much past a few days is a fallacy.
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so why do you bother to read them and what skin is it off your back if others do? Are you just looking for something to bitch about?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
thandy said:
Downeastnc keep doing what you are doing. Unlike some I understand that beyond 7 days is likely to change heck it changes inside of 7 days. I am no weather expert but I am smart enough to understand that :donk:donk:donk:donk changes. Bryguy hit the ignore button its that easy...
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They did miss on Sara...unfortunately for Honduras which is getting up to 30 inches of rain where flooding is most likely going to kill quite a few people.

Also depending on how organized it can stay there is a window over the GOM where she could become a strong TS or better before hitting Florida.

x.com

x.com x.com
 
moonlight

moonlight

Four Pointer
bryguy said:
you are as bad as the weather charlatans on YouTube. I watch all these dudes over there and they love to cherry pick the models and use these super wild model runs. Best guy out there is POW because he only goes out maybe 7 days and is realistic about stuff. you do the same thing as the clickbaiters and always love to post these far fetched long range models that seldom, if ever pan out. Your weather forecasting ability is only on par with you political insight.
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Amen. 100%.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models keep showing the first statewide freeze around Dec 1/2 time frame....for the western third of the state it could happen a few days earlier.

1732049434587.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
First frost freeze could happen tomorrow westc of I 95 if the wind lays up overnight. If the wind stays up there will be enough mixing to prevent temps getting below 32 RDU east....seems likely though that the Triad and piedmont go below freezing.

Also some big wind with the front tonight so don't be surprised at some loud wind ongoing out west spreading east over the next several hrs. Maybe even power outages. You can see the wind shift on radar so gust to 40-50 possible..

KRAX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 8_40 PM.png
 

Justin

Old Mossy Horns
Wind came through here about an hour and a half ago. Thoroughly surprised we didn’t have large limbs or trees down. Neighbor burned leaves yesterday, and had them compacted. Was barely smoldering after being rained on last night and today. Wind came through and ignited it. I looked out and the leaves were a ball of flames with embers blowing horizontally for 75-100ft like a jet engine. Was pretty but glad everything was damp because it was showering the side of his garage, house, and his next door neighbors house.

I went down there and he wasn’t home. Wife wasn’t aware anything happened but she found a water hose for me and I took a shovel and hose and turned it and soaked it until I never saw any more embers or smoke.
 

hunthard2

Twelve Pointer
Contributor
downeastnc said:
First frost freeze could happen tomorrow westc of I 95 if the wind lays up overnight. If the wind stays up there will be enough mixing to prevent temps getting below 32 RDU east....seems likely though that the Triad and piedmont go below freezing.

Also some big wind with the front tonight so don't be surprised at some loud wind ongoing out west spreading east over the next several hrs. Maybe even power outages. You can see the wind shift on radar so gust to 40-50 possible..

View attachment 163246
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Wind shift?
 
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