Fall/Second Fall 2022 Weather Thread

sky hawk

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
They moved the Friday night football games to Thursday here, but the latest run I looked at didn't have any rain in the area until Saturday morning.
 

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Girl child is buckled up in Orlando ready as she can be for what ever comes. She called yesterday before anybody called her and said she's got this, she even took a bunch of video of her car and all of her stuff just in case Ins is required. Also learned, to my surprise that if Disney closes because of a storm that they pay the employees who are scheduled to work while they are closed..
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Girl child is buckled up in Orlando ready as she can be for what ever comes. She called yesterday before anybody called her and said she's got this, she even took a bunch of video of her car and all of her stuff just in case Ins is required. Also learned, to my surprise that if Disney closes because of a storm that they pay the employees who are scheduled to work while they are closed..
Trends today are for a further south hit but regardless the rainfall is gonna be a big problem. Some models are also speeding it up so that may help with the rain totals but increase the wind threat.
 

dc bigdaddy

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
They don't know what the hell going to happen.

We're supposed to be shooting the 4H State Tournament Saturday.
 
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Justin

Old Mossy Horns
the forecast “cone of uncertainty” has shown the northern movement after it makes landfall… now you’re saying it’s speeding up?
 

45/70 hunter

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
I just saw one report of it expected to stall over Tampa and dump up to two feet of rain.
 
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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
the forecast “cone of uncertainty” has shown the northern movement after it makes landfall… now you’re saying it’s speeding up?
The model spread is pretty large for this one. It's really not done what the models have said and has been on the eastern side of guidance for the last 24 hours.

The models have begun to introduce speed difference which change track position. Yesterday the models had this hitting Tampa and essentially stalling dropping 45 inches of rain. Now some models, a growing number bring it through the state faster and further south. This one is a tough one for the NHC
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Here's the latest EPS trends. The earliest image when it was south of Cuba to newest that now has many members off the SE coast turning back into SC and some towards NC.
 

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Browning86

Six Pointer
Figures…Heading to the beach tomorrow to fish with my dad till Sunday…I guess just hoping for a good pre-frontal bite. Keep all the updates coming
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
There are several ens members that now have a landfalling hurricane over NC late Friday night into Sat.....still a long way to go but NC is not in the clear wind wise yet....also with the abnormally strong H over New England there could be some wind regardless though it should not exceed say 40-50 in gust....unless the storm makes it up into NC.....

This Euro ens is one of several for instance brings a legit hurricane into NC, it moves right up I 95 from there....this would probably be a 80-100 mph cane and knock out half the states power at least. At this point though the main consensus is for the center to stay closer to the coast and hit southern SC and kind spin down over SC.....rain would be the big issue and even then it would not be more than 2-4" on average and we can handle that easy as dry as it is.....something like below would obviously up those totals a lot....

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092712_90_5750_149_m14.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Gfs which had been landfalling between Tampa and the panhandle has now joined the faster off the east coast camp of models and landfallls over Sc and then heads to the upstate of SC and slows down. Would be a BIG rain maker for the foothills
 

shurshot

Ten Pointer
I’d also like A LOT of rain to help fill my duck pond but as the saying goes, careful what you wish for.

Yep shaggy, it’s all but a Cat 5 and is going to cause catastrophic damage to the west coast of Fla.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Another shift north in the ensembles. At 0z which were the over night runs it was clusterd by Savanah at 6z its further up the coast with a couple in NC
 

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Justin

Old Mossy Horns
In all seriousness I have fished in the middle of several tropical storms/depressions/hurricanes and it has ALWAYS been extremely tough. But that was for green carp, those speckled perch can be fooled under any circumstance :ROFLMAO:
Ahhh they can, but can the RIGHT ones be fooled lol. Only takes 7 bites lol
 
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