Fall/Winter 2022 Weather Thread

FITZH2O

Twelve Pointer
Heard earlier they did this to prevent damage to the system
They do, just funny to hear about the entire island being out. After I seen it I looked up the storm, if they get any serious damage to their grid, it would show they learned nothing from Irma. Or got the corruption under control
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
They do, just funny to hear about the entire island being out. After I seen it I looked up the storm, if they get any serious damage to their grid, it would show they learned nothing from Irma. Or got the corruption under control
Their big problem is gonna be the incredible rainfall they've received. Gonna be some 30+ inch totals and a few videos of catastrophic flooding already have come out.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
She is gonna be a big miss for the US but Bermuda will have to watch her. She's about to put on a show and form one classic looking hurricane.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Fiona will miss but it will set the stage for round 2, and this one is way more likely to interact with the US.....probably central to eastern gulf, or right up Florida or the immediate SE coast ( which is worse case for NC coastal areas ) the actual 06Z GFS run this morning would be worse case for western NC....

This is not by any means a forecast its just a tool showing what the atmosphere may do in a few weeks it can and will change however this run could also be dead on right.....this is a solid 12+ hrs of heavy tropical rain for portions of NC, at least its moving north quick....


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh252-270.gif
 

Wanchese

Twelve Pointer
Calling for N wind with gust to 45 mph Thursday night into Friday. Where is that coming from? Guess we are going to start paying for all the pretty weather we have had.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Yawn......Fiona Fiona Fiona.....All Any news have lead with the last day or 2. Basically a TS drops MASSIVE amounts of rain on islands literally hit by hurricanes every few years, in a row. :rolleyes: Power Grid may actually be restored FAR sooner than Maria? MSM feels that's too soon, soooo,

They paranoia America (new word) with fears of tidal surges, extreme beach weather, basically doomsday news for 0.002% of our population. Sometimes for HALF of the NC weather forecast! Why is this storm important?!?!?!

Anyways, Now they are finding a cluster of clouds, off Africa, and low and behold, I'll bet you based on their forecast HD and Lowes are shipping generators to certain locations.

You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Its like someone asked the Euro model to spit out a run that showed worse case for NC....this is its overnight run, this obviously would be bad for NC....again this is not in anyway to be taken as likely, but it shows what could happen with this next system, it will be different next run...this is a strong Cat 3 at landfall here.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh210-240.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Thanks for the updates guys. Don’t really like the looks of the last one but thanks

Yeah the big takeaway is there is a high chance of a landfalling cane somewhere over the SE, I would not get caught up in the tracks exactly as the models will be all over the place trying to tack down the timing and positions of the highs and fronts in that time frame.....if it makes it into the GOM and hits more inland wind will be a lesser threat and rain would be the main issue but it will be moving rather fast so that would be limited to "only" 5-10" of rain....

Still that Euro run would be hurricane force winds over just about the entire eastern half of NC from the triangle to the coast.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
About best case is going to be crossing Cuba and skirting the SE coast of Florida and then OTS.....a thing to watch short term is how long it takes this storm to form and strengthen.....these storms want to go north and typically the stronger more organized they are the easier it is for this to happen, so most of the tracks that miss to the east are stronger more organized short term thus turn sooner.....so if this thing takes 36-48 more hrs to really take off the GOM/EC runner scenario looks more likely.....by almost all accounts this will be a healthy strong large storm.

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bwfarms

Old Mossy Horns
At this point I’m ready for a category 3… I have everything I need to rock and roll.

Right now I want some rain and need it, I’ve been caught in this sliver all summer.

6CCBD0E1-3FEF-4A2A-BE97-5639EE090920.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Calling for N wind with gust to 45 mph Thursday night into Friday. Where is that coming from? Guess we are going to start paying for all the pretty weather we have had.
Monster cold front dropping through is gonna have our highs drop from low 90s tomorrow to low 70s Friday. That wind is fall finally making an appearance
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Did RDU report any 100 degree days this year? I know my truck temp guage did but that doesn't always correlate.
Thanks
 
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