Fall/Winter 2021 Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
N or NE blows the water out here. NW is kind of hit or miss depending on what direction it was prior to shifting because we get water out of the Albemarle.

Models giving pretty long N/NE fetch 20-30 gusting to the 40's Sat night into Sunday. ( couple of models even push 60-65 out over the sounds/OBX)....some 30-40 mph gust also likely inland to around I 95 at least, rainfall totals down a bit as the short term trend has been a bit more offshore with the low all in all not a good weekend for hunting or fishing along the coast....

Though I did hunt a little 20 acre spot here near Greenville one time during a similar type event ( windy as hell and rain )and saw more deer that day than any other on that plot.
 

Wanchese

Twelve Pointer
Imagine places down the sound are going to see some water. N/NE wind 20+ the past few days has already had the tide low here.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Imagine places down the sound are going to see some water. N/NE wind 20+ the past few days has already had the tide low here.

Special weather statement for your neck of the woods at least mentions the possibility of gusts to 60mph for you
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Well the next few days will end the growing season for pretty much the rest of NC that has not already had a freeze....its a little behind schedule here in the east. Should be right in time for the collards to be ready for Thanksgiving though.

The models certainly are suggesting a period of pretty below normal temps coming our way for the middle end of Nov into Dec, it would be winter like weather, technically the Pacific is still in a La Nina and while typically this means warm and dryer conditions in the SE for winters there are also a few times in La Nina's where a blocky pattern ( -NAO ) sets up causing big troughs in the eastern USA and this pattern persist with lots of cold and winter weather. If your a cold and snow lover this is a good pattern, though we may be wasting it a bit by having it now versus late Dec leading into the heart of winter.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Seeing some of the first fantasy snows in the long range this would be very very unusual but it highlights the pattern coming up and is not outside the realm of reason to actually happen though again I would not bank on it at all lol....still cool to see if you like snow.....granted this would probably not accumulate much if any.....

1636955827319.png
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Today seems weird to me. Breezy but chilly as if a front came through, but wind direction is Southern. ?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Today seems weird to me. Breezy but chilly as if a front came through, but wind direction is Southern. ?

Wind was NW here most of the day, dews have crashed well into the 20's probably coldest night of the season easily for most of NC tonight. Freeze warnings up for the eastern third except the OBX and SE corner.....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
A lot of model agreement for a very below normal cold shot right in time for Thanksgiving.....still a little over a week out but this type of agreement means this is probably getting to be a pretty good bet at this point....

Basically these maps are showing 25-35 degree below normal air temps with this trough....so daytime highs struggling to get out of the 30's type cold next week.....

Euro
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GFS

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Canadian

1637045266673.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yep. Most forecasts I have seen has cold front coming Monday, and Tuesday being cold, but Thanksgiving Day back to the 60s.

This is probably not far from correct either, its tough to get sustained deep winter cold this time of year, heck tomorrow will push 75+ for us eastern NC folks, but the overall pattern is cool to cold with a few pre frontal warm days mixed in, kind of how I remember late fall and winter being when I was younger.....realistically next week I would say Tues-Wed will see very below normal days for this time of year....say highs 38-48 west to east across NC....but Thanksgiving could be very much like today, but its going to get back down to below normal the weekend after Thanks giving as another shot of colder air moves in...but then warm up as a low moves up the Apps....

Thats how I remember winter's normally going back in "the day" which for me was the was the late 70's through mid 90's, big front bringing in cold dry air for several days, then a decent day with warming temps, then a warm windy day with some rain etc as the next big front pushes through.....every once in a while you get a big sustained cold shot with a winter storm either leading into or out of the cold snap.
 

Scrub

Ten Pointer
Contributor
This is probably not far from correct either, its tough to get sustained deep winter cold this time of year, heck tomorrow will push 75+ for us eastern NC folks, but the overall pattern is cool to cold with a few pre frontal warm days mixed in, kind of how I remember late fall and winter being when I was younger.....realistically next week I would say Tues-Wed will see very below normal days for this time of year....say highs 38-48 west to east across NC....but Thanksgiving could be very much like today, but its going to get back down to below normal the weekend after Thanks giving as another shot of colder air moves in...but then warm up as a low moves up the Apps....

Thats how I remember winter's normally going back in "the day" which for me was the was the late 70's through mid 90's, big front bringing in cold dry air for several days, then a decent day with warming temps, then a warm windy day with some rain etc as the next big front pushes through.....every once in a while you get a big sustained cold shot with a winter storm either leading into or out of the cold snap.

what’s the latest? I saw some mention of a possible big blast of cold air
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
what’s the latest? I saw some mention of a possible big blast of cold air

Yeah good shot of cold early next week but its transient, highs Tues will struggle into the low 40's with lows well into the 20's....after that pretty normal type weather for this time of year. Models still not sure how much blocking there will be over the north Atlantic, the more blocking the longer more persistent the cold air is.
 

agsnchunt

Twelve Pointer
This is probably not far from correct either, its tough to get sustained deep winter cold this time of year, heck tomorrow will push 75+ for us eastern NC folks, but the overall pattern is cool to cold with a few pre frontal warm days mixed in, kind of how I remember late fall and winter being when I was younger.....realistically next week I would say Tues-Wed will see very below normal days for this time of year....say highs 38-48 west to east across NC....but Thanksgiving could be very much like today, but its going to get back down to below normal the weekend after Thanks giving as another shot of colder air moves in...but then warm up as a low moves up the Apps....

Thats how I remember winter's normally going back in "the day" which for me was the was the late 70's through mid 90's, big front bringing in cold dry air for several days, then a decent day with warming temps, then a warm windy day with some rain etc as the next big front pushes through.....every once in a while you get a big sustained cold shot with a winter storm either leading into or out of the cold snap.

jacket, shorts, jacket, shorts, coat/gloves, jacket, shorts...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
jacket, shorts, jacket, shorts, coat/gloves, jacket, shorts...

lol this is accurate.....I mowed for hopefully the last time yesterday it was 76 out, today we struggle into the 50's and the only thing to keep the bottom from a falling out tonight will be the wind.....could see low to mid 20's if there was no wind tonight but the wind should keep the temps up a closer to 28-32 for most. Western foothills folks might get a few hrs with the wind decoupling so it might get 22-25 out that way.....

This is the highs for Tues next week and that is with wind all day too....

1637332009924.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This is being shown on several models, very close to some flakes in the air, especially over northern half of NC....

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Typically Oct/Nov are the driest months of the year, but this is getting a little ridiculous especially after being on pace to shatter the all time wettest year on record in many parts of NC. Here in Greenville back in Sept we were 10" over the wettest year on record now we are several inches behind that year. Ironically we are already over the average yearly rainfall total but we have not had more than a half inch in a month probably at this point. It is much worse in the foothills etc.

No real help in sight either this is the 16 day rainfall total map and well its not good....
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shurshot

Eight Pointer
Looks like I’m going to have to run the pump again to keep the pond full. It’s losing quite a bit daily due to this very dry air.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The morning run of the GFS was wetter with a bit of a break in the pattern.....most of this rain is in the 8-12 day range though....should have a new run to look at in a hr or so to see if the wetter look holds any or we go back to drier forecast....

1638373550445.png
 

shurshot

Eight Pointer
Heck, 1.75-2” won’t hardly affect a thing for me but I’d take it. Dry as I can remember on quite some time. A state wide burn ban went into effect yesterday.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Noon run still a bit better for some rain at least....

1638384338846.png

The models also have us warmer than normal for the first half of Dec then back to more seasonal type weather if not out right cold....we are talking highs well into the 70's.....very La Nina like pattern.
 
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