Fall/Winter 2021 Weather Thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Some more above normal days on tap going into next week but then maybe some decent changes going into peak rut for most central and eastern parts of NC at least....

There looks to be a pretty nasty storm system around Oct 26-28th that could lead to a severe weather/tornado setup for a lot of the SE and possibly NC.....followed by some legit arctic air that would lead to the first big frost or even freezes for most of NC west of Hwy 17 anyways. Typically the last week of Oct first week of Nov is when most of NC gets their first heavy frost or freeze....currently looks very likely that holds up this year...


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Gonna need to watch Tues in western and central NC especially, this time of year the setup for severe is often very hit and miss but the ingredients will be there according to the models for at least a chance at some tornados, and rather strong ones at that. A lot can and will change and timing is a big key here late morning to early afternoon during peak heating without preexisting clouds to minimize instability is worse case, you get clouds and or showers etc out in front and it will diminish the threat. This is just the models current take on it.

Right now the orange area would be the highest risk and its actually pretty high that any storms that form would be trying to go tornadic.....the trick is getting the storms themselves to form. Right now it looks like there is a good chance they would fire up and then spin up....

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This shows how much helicity is predicted to exist and anything over 200 is too much.....you can actually see the "stroms" veering the flow ( the yellow and reds) its not a good look.

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This map shows the track of areas of rotation, basically its trying to predict any tornado path and intensity, this changes every single run but the fact it has long tracked and strong rotations run to run is the thing we look for, this one would suck if it actually happened as it tracks over a lot of highly populated areas....but it would be way worse if it was even 20 miles further south.

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NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Gonna need to watch Tues in western and central NC especially, this time of year the setup for severe is often very hit and miss but the ingredients will be there according to the models for at least a chance at some tornados, and rather strong ones at that. A lot can and will change and timing is a big key here late morning to early afternoon during peak heating without preexisting clouds to minimize instability is worse case, you get clouds and or showers etc out in front and it will diminish the threat. This is just the models current take on it.

Right now the orange area would be the highest risk and its actually pretty high that any storms that form would be trying to go tornadic.....the trick is getting the storms themselves to form. Right now it looks like there is a good chance they would fire up and then spin up....

View attachment 76864

This shows how much helicity is predicted to exist and anything over 200 is too much.....you can actually see the "stroms" veering the flow ( the yellow and reds) its not a good look.

View attachment 76865

This map shows the track of areas of rotation, basically its trying to predict any tornado path and intensity, this changes every single run but the fact it has long tracked and strong rotations run to run is the thing we look for, this one would suck if it actually happened as it tracks over a lot of highly populated areas....but it would be way worse if it was even 20 miles further south.

View attachment 76866


There are a multitude of things I don't understand regarding our planet. One of them is "severe weather in the mountains". Flash Flooding I totally understand. But Tornadoes and straight line winds occurring in mountainous areas?

Does this happen ever, rarely etc?

Also, does extreme conditions either help or hurt those in the flatter sections once the weather passes the mountains?

Thanks.
 

HotSoup

Twelve Pointer
There are a multitude of things I don't understand regarding our planet. One of them is "severe weather in the mountains". Flash Flooding I totally understand. But Tornadoes and straight line winds occurring in mountainous areas?

Does this happen ever, rarely etc?

Also, does extreme conditions either help or hurt those in the flatter sections once the weather passes the mountains?

Thanks.

Look up spearfish canyon SD tornadoes. They have been hit hard the last few years.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
There are a multitude of things I don't understand regarding our planet. One of them is "severe weather in the mountains". Flash Flooding I totally understand. But Tornadoes and straight line winds occurring in mountainous areas?

Does this happen ever, rarely etc?

Also, does extreme conditions either help or hurt those in the flatter sections once the weather passes the mountains?

Thanks.

Sure they can happen though it is admittedly rather rare for tornados to hit in higher mts areas.....though the foothills etc are certainly capable of seeing big tornados....

Tues is looking kinda on the fence for tornados versus straightline winds.....the models are showing a high shear low cape setup.....basically the amount of energy in the lowest part of the atmosphere ( surface layer) is the question mark. Cape is a measurement of instability, if we get a lot of sun etc and the surface layer heats up it will rise, the fast and stronger these updrafts are the better the chances there will be tornadic storms. The shear is going to be there so any updrafts that are strong and tall enough will spin some.....so thats why these high shear low cape setups are so hard to predict. If there is a lot of clouds out in front of the main front then that would limit instability and its really hard to predict just how much cape there will be. The models are starting to key into a small weak low of the NC coast that could keep enough clouds etc around to limit instability....there will be a stout wind with the front itself with the low level jet screaming overhead rather low to the ground it wont surprise me to see areas getting straight line winds 45-55 regardless.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Timing sucks , the worst will unfortunately be after dark tonight, they had some monster after dark tornados in Missouri associated with this storm last night, though our setup is not as intense. In fact the two main hi res convective models are very far apart......the HRRR below has almost nothing but it has been overly aggressive with mixing out the boundry layer dewpoints which leads to stability.

So here is the HRRR helicity swatch, pretty much nothing rotational

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The NAM however which keeps it more unstable thus has a few strong rotating supercells....those occur between 9pm and 1am tonight

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Another round of stormy weather with strong storms and some isolated tornados possible again Thursday.....

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" During the evening, it is expected that
surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm
sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC. Damaging
gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the more intense storms as
this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC."
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
SPC tornado risk for tomorrow night

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During the evening, it is expected that
surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm
sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC. Damaging
gusts and a tornado risk may accompany the more intense storms as
this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Pretty violent tornados this morning and on going in TX/LA border. this is same system that could give us some windy and wild weather tomorrow night in NC especially the eastern half and especially 95 east, though models have winds 20-35 mph for just about everyone.


at 24 secs in those sure look like entire grown trees being uprooted and tossed into the air...

 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Pretty typical fall period coming up, fairly dry, coolish but nothing too cold, the models still wanna go to a colder pattern in Nov but these changes usually take longer to actually happen than the models show....

Also this video from the tornado I posted above shows a ATV being tosses a very long way, and really highlights how strong these things can be and how even if they are close they can still kill you with flying debris if it lands on ya...


 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Looking like maybe some widespread frost/freeze conditions Thurs night, and the chances the coast gets a "Noreaster" Sat look to be going up a bit, how far west the rain gets varies with some runs getting it as far inland as RDU etc....would make Sat a very wet/windy hunt.

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shurshot

Eight Pointer
What are your thoughts for rainfall totals for the New Bern/ Hobucken (Pamlico Co) area? Certainly looks like it’s going to be a little “sporty” sat/sun.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
What are your thoughts for rainfall totals for the New Bern/ Hobucken (Pamlico Co) area? Certainly looks like it’s going to be a little “sporty” sat/sun.

Yeah sporty is accurate lol.....certainly would be a "tough" fishing day.....

Here is the latest rainfall total prediction....."only" 4-5" around Hobucken with winds gusting 30-40 at least.....so definitely sporty.

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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
95 and east is in for some rain and wind tomorrow and Sunday pretty tight gradient that obviously goes up over to the coast you get.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This weekends storm gonna make it tough to hunt along the coastal areas for sure.....longer range however is interesting, there is a lot of agreement for a early start to winter showing up by mid month with a cold and stormy look for the east coast on all the models....if this can become semi permanent then the second half of Nov and Dec could be colder than normal and certainly colder than normal during a La Nina winter.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@Wanchese looks windy in your neck of the woods this weekend. How does a north wind effect the island compared to a strong south wind? More or less flooding?
 
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