Fall/Winter 2020-21 Weather thread

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
and the rest of the world's LR forecasts are coming to yalls call. COLD COLD COLD. Highs in the 20s :skeerd::)
Pretty work @downeastnc , @Shaggy .

The stratospheric warming event is one I dont understand much. Once the maps were posted and the data was there then I've understood its downrange effects a little better but man its above my limits in alot of ways.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
The stratospheric warming event is one I dont understand much. Once the maps were posted and the data was there then I've understood its downrange effects a little better but man its above my limits in alot of ways.
I guess bottom line we gonna have alot of the "Cold as a ......" posts. :)
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I guess bottom line we gonna have alot of the "Cold as a ......" posts. :)

It might not be what we call "vodka" cold for most of the period though it will be below normal...... what makes this pattern unique is that it delivers cold but also allows the southern jet stream to phase into the northern one over the SE....this means its good at putting cold and wet in the same place at the same time.....the other side of that is the southern flow prevents it from ever getting insanely cold.

Though if the polar vortex ever gets displaced enough ( and that is very possible if a huge east coast storm happens) then we could see a period of that insane cold in out neck of the woods though it would be very cold dry air.....but as it looks now if that happened it would be well into the end of Jan into early Feb, that however is typically the coldest period of winter in the northern hemisphere.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Euro looked intriguing for sure. Thundersnow east of I-95 in places. Still trying to go big at the last second too so trending better for eastern NC now as well.
 

bryguy

Old Mossy Horns
Euro looked intriguing for sure. Thundersnow east of I-95 in places. Still trying to go big at the last second too so trending better for eastern NC now as well.

Which storm? The one this weekend or the one Monday?


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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Which storm? The one this weekend or the one Monday?


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This weekend. The euro sort of lost the Monday storm.

Best part is these arent even in the best pattern. Wait 2 more weeks if all the teleconnections are right........gonna be seeing lots of post from me and downeast
 

Homebrewale

Old Mossy Horns
From the mets at work:

Over the past few weeks, we have been monitoring some planetary-scale atmospheric developments that could eventually yield an active winter weather regime over the eastern U.S. It now appears this anticipated winter weather pattern may be in the process of coming together and may continue to progress into an increasingly cold and potentially active one over the next couple of weeks.

With the above in mind, don't be surprised to see an increasing number of winter weather-related emails and forecasts over the coming days. Also, now would be a good time to revisit winter weather preparedness plans.

Currently, we are tracking the threat of wintry weather for two periods: Friday, 1/8 into Saturday 1/9 and Monday, 1/11 into Tuesday 1/12. Beyond this period, additional threats may develop if the pattern evolves as currently anticipated.

As these first two systems come into better focus, we will continue to provide more detailed analysis through the week. We plan to issue a detailed outline of the 1/8 to 1/9 system tomorrow, with a forecast accumulation map likely to follow on Thursday. Additional details on the possible 1/11 to 1/12 event will be transmitted as warranted.
 

chef

Ten Pointer
This weekend. The euro sort of lost the Monday storm.

Best part is these arent even in the best pattern. Wait 2 more weeks if all the teleconnections are right........gonna be seeing lots of post from me and downeast
Thank God. Your weather posts are much better than your muzzle blast posts. 😉

I kid
 
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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Friday is a very typical NC snowstorm setup.....meaning its marginal as hell .......there is going to be snow, you NW NC folks look the most locked in, but for central NC and along the NC/VA border a few degrees is the difference between cold rain or several inches of snow....and both could happen literally, it could be rain then change to snow or snow and change to rain....

Latest snowfall maps from the GFS and Euro for Friday ,the Mon storm has been dropped though that is something models sometime do in this range only to bring it back....

snku_acc.us_ma.png

snod.us_ma.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
i choose door #2. nice white area on my doorstep. in midst of a paralyzing .1 inch . :)

Friday and Monday are both really iffy outside of the Mts and NW foothills......and even then temps at the surface will be 32-34 so it might snow 5" but you end up with a 1" .......Monday could be bigger because it would/could be colder.....though the models have had issues with it the last few runs....
 
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