Fall/Winter 2020-21 Weather thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Well tropical season finally seems over....should probably not said that though....

So that means colder weather, though with a La Nina setup this season it means we typically see warmer winters in the SE.....but when we do get pattern breaks and the cold air comes it usually means business and La Nina winters can have very cold and snowy periods.....

So with the above in mind I will just say the models are painting some interesting scenarios with a east coast trough and cut off upper low.....could even mean some snowflakes in the air well east of the mts in NC are possible...at the very least it would make for some cold cloudy wet days....

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KrisB

Ten Pointer
I hope we get some extended cold periods. I am so ready for the cold! I actually found flowers blooming on game land here in the Sandhills yesterday.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I hope we get some extended cold periods. I am so ready for the cold! I actually found flowers blooming on game land here in the Sandhills yesterday.

The analogs and using the ENSO state to predict seasons is a work in progress but overall its generally correct....so this winter should be long periods of above normal temps and probably dryer than normal periods, mixed in will be short 5-7 days periods of potentially very cold air......really it sucks because it makes it tough to acclimate to the cold. There is one caveat and that is due to the sad state of the polar ice cap in the Artic there could be a few variables that might cause there to be more blocking off of Greenland and that could be a wild card to let the east coast get stuck in those colder periods for long periods....we really dont have a lot of data sets to compare to with the lack of sea ice we see factored in.

So just because this winter does look to average above normal its still possible to have a above average snowfall total winter ( not that it takes much for us, 1 good 5-10" snow puts most of us at 100% of average or better lol ) and or record cold events....
 

KrisB

Ten Pointer
really it sucks because it makes it tough to acclimate to the cold.
Exactly. And it does suck. I'd like for it to get cold and stay cold with average temps for the season until springtime. Seems the weather I grew up with is becoming a thing of the past. The hurricane season extension and the greater intensity of hurricanes have been particularly gobsmacking for me since I grew up in Virginia Beach, VA. Category 5s were relatively rare then. Now it's like there are several every season.

There is one caveat and that is due to the sad state of the polar ice cap in the Artic there could be a few variables that might cause there to be more blocking off of Greenland and that could be a wild card to let the east coast get stuck in those colder periods for long periods....we really dont have a lot of data sets to compare to with the lack of sea ice we see factored in.

That makes sense. Definitely going to be an interesting winter, especially if that wild card comes into play.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Exactly. And it does suck. I'd like for it to get cold and stay cold with average temps for the season until springtime. Seems the weather I grew up with is becoming a thing of the past. The hurricane season extension and the greater intensity of hurricanes have been particularly gobsmacking for me since I grew up in Virginia Beach, VA. Category 5s were relatively rare then. Now it's like there are several every season.



That makes sense. Definitely going to be an interesting winter, especially if that wild card comes into play.

We did not have the ability to accurately measure storms prior to the 80's, so there were probably a lot of storms that may have been Cat 4/5 that never get that designation since there is no reliable data.....same thing happens with tornados all the time, if a EF5 hits nothing but a cornfield and a few old barns since there is nothing structurally able to indicate winds supporting a EF5 it wont get that designation.....basically tornados are rated based on what they destroy.....or in some rarer cases where they have storm teams in the field with doppler radar etc....so there are probably dozens of EF3-5 tornados that end up EF 2-3's due to this....
 

KrisB

Ten Pointer
We did not have the ability to accurately measure storms prior to the 80's, so there were probably a lot of storms that may have been Cat 4/5 that never get that designation since there is no reliable data.....same thing happens with tornados all the time, if a EF5 hits nothing but a cornfield and a few old barns since there is nothing structurally able to indicate winds supporting a EF5 it wont get that designation.....basically tornados are rated based on what they destroy.....or in some rarer cases where they have storm teams in the field with doppler radar etc....so there are probably dozens of EF3-5 tornados that end up EF 2-3's due to this....

I understand. I grew up in the '80's, so my experiences of hurricanes have only been during times that storms could be accurately measured. My father grew up in NC in the '40's and '50's and he remembers Hurricane Hazel in 1954. That kind of hurricane stands out for its intensity and destructive force, as well as its rarity in the communities that experienced and remember it. It seems to me, as well as to my parents, that the frequency of higher-category hurricanes, including Category 5's (i.e. Katrina, Maria, Matthew, Dorian, etc) has been on the rise in recent years. And the extension of the hurricane season from June 1-October 1, which is how it was when I was growing up, to June 1-November 30 is symptomatic of this shift, in my opinion.

Anyway, I apologize for hijacking the thread and making it about hurricanes.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I understand. I grew up in the '80's, so my experiences of hurricanes have only been during times that storms could be accurately measured. My father grew up in NC in the '40's and '50's and he remembers Hurricane Hazel in 1954. That kind of hurricane stands out for its intensity and destructive force, as well as its rarity in the communities that experienced and remember it. It seems to me, as well as to my parents, that the frequency of higher-category hurricanes, including Category 5's (i.e. Katrina, Maria, Matthew, Dorian, etc) has been on the rise in recent years. And the extension of the hurricane season from June 1-October 1, which is how it was when I was growing up, to June 1-November 30 is symptomatic of this shift, in my opinion.

Anyway, I apologize for hijacking the thread and making it about hurricanes.

Naw its all weather.....as for the shift into Nov, there is also a lot of study on seasons and how they tend to move around a bit...its known as season creep and there could be lots of variables at play there. Your right though overall the tropical season seems to be lasting longer and capable of producing monsters which was very unlikely until the last 10-20 years....

Also us weather nerds look at the seasons differently.....we go by what the community calls met seasons.....

Dec 1- Mar 1 winter
Mar 1-June 1 spring
June 1-Sept 1 summer
Sept 1-Dec 1 Fall

Now obviously where you live will have a big say on how those dates play out but technically since winter and summer technically start in the middle of what we consider winter and summer weather the above is a bit more accurate as far as what the weather is likely to be doing.
 

KrisB

Ten Pointer
Naw its all weather.....as for the shift into Nov, there is also a lot of study on seasons and how they tend to move around a bit...its known as season creep and there could be lots of variables at play there. Your right though overall the tropical season seems to be lasting longer and capable of producing monsters which was very unlikely until the last 10-20 years....

Also us weather nerds look at the seasons differently.....we go by what the community calls met seasons.....

Dec 1- Mar 1 winter
Mar 1-June 1 spring
June 1-Sept 1 summer
Sept 1-Dec 1 Fall

Now obviously where you live will have a big say on how those dates play out but technically since winter and summer technically start in the middle of what we consider winter and summer weather the above is a bit more accurate as far as what the weather is likely to be doing.

Very interesting stuff. :) But I want to stop hijacking your winter weather thread.
 

ducknut

Eight Pointer
So glad to see this. If I saw another hurricane or 80 degree day I was going to have to pay a Clinton to suicide me.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
So glad to see this. If I saw another hurricane or 80 degree day I was going to have to pay a Clinton to suicide me.

Ummmmmm ahhhhhhh sooooooooo anyways you live in NC so you might wanna add 5-10 to that to stay safe from Hillary.....
 

Sportsman

Old Mossy Horns
Cold is one thing. I actually like cool/cold weather. Extended days of deep freezing cold is another story. I want our speckled trout to make it through another winter. I want a shot at a 30 incher!!!!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
This front today is a little potent and there is a threat for strong winds and even a few tornados especially east of I 95....early Dec looking at or below normal on temps.....
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
Well tropical season finally seems over....should probably not said that though....

So that means colder weather, though with a La Nina setup this season it means we typically see warmer winters in the SE.....but when we do get pattern breaks and the cold air comes it usually means business and La Nina winters can have very cold and snowy periods.....

So with the above in mind I will just say the models are painting some interesting scenarios with a east coast trough and cut off upper low.....could even mean some snowflakes in the air well east of the mts in NC are possible...at the very least it would make for some cold cloudy wet days....

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i think you got that one correct DENC. You really should quit your day job. :)
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
So looking ahead the first several weeks of Dec will be winter, maybe a few bigger storms but temps will be to warm for snow though not by much, looks like the models want to do something big right around the middle of the month, big storm and strong cold shot signal is there

After that though we should see a return to above or even well above normal temps leading into the holidays.....could make for a interesting end of deer season with early season like weather....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Could be a fairly rough weather day tomorrow, marginal chance of severe storms in eastern NC and generally windy and wet, especially late Friday night as the squall line moves in....

Then next week Tuesdayish could be close to some wet flakes mixing in for central and east central NC, also models keep wanting to pop a few big monster lows mid month, would be rain events here followed by very cold for Dec air masses...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Model teasing eastern NC with a quick heavy wet snow now next Tues, this is trending more realistic every run.....still as always with NC snow its always a maybe until it over and actually happened lol...still its inside of 5 days on the models and the trend has been to this solution on just about every model though this one is the most aggressive with totals, others show little to no accum.....

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45/70 hunter

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Channel 5 must be tired of you and Shaggy showing them up. They say their models are sniffing a wintry mix Monday night.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Channel 5 must be tired of you and Shaggy showing them up. They say their models are sniffing a wintry mix Monday night.

They see the same stuff we do, hell anyone can if you know where to look, the real key is trying to determine how likely the model outputs are given other factors ( climo for instance ) also most TV weather people are bound by rules on speculation etc....that varies by who they work for. Finally they have to worry about being wrong I dont :)

This probably would not be a big event, temps will barely support snow at the surface so anything that falls wont amount to much if anything, maybe elevated surfaces and grass see a dusting to a inch that will probably melt quickly after it ends.....still it would be a fairly early snow for those that see it, if it happens at all.

As usual though things are always changing so who knows sometimes these sneaky little events like this overperform for someone....but right now I would temper my expectations to it being a win just to see some flakes for a few hrs with little to no accumulation....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Any of you guys seeing any flakes, several reports of snow showers in that last band of precip crossing the Triangle now....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Going to be stormy Sun-Thur next week, at least some heavier rain with 1-2" of rain for a lot of NC.....looks like the warmer model evolutions will win out ( shocking lol ) and this is going to be mostly rain.....could be some snow/ice in the hills/mts mid week though....

Longer range for look for Xmas is warm/wet with a front approaching or maybe just post frontal and drying cooler weather....so another warm wet60- 70 degree Xmas day is certainly possible.
 
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