ESPN College Football FPI

Hunting Nut

Hunting Nut

Old Mossy Horns
No. Idiotic sense, to me.

Let's say we start the Indy 500.
We let the race go on 400 miles. Then, we throw a caution flag and sprinkle brand new cars throughout the field. Then drop the green flag, and winner take all. Idiotic .

When one of these wussy-school- we-won't-play-due to covid team's wins more games undefeated than any other team has compiled wins, I'll entertain the idea of them being ranked at all.
 
Firedog

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
It makes no more or less sense than anything else. Somebody decided on criteria and anytime that the team that wins the National Championship is not at the top of a power index at the end of the year the methodology is flawed. It fails to take into account what we all saw happen... if it does not account for what we SAW then how can it be predictive? Unless they changed methodology since the final one from last year? And to have any team that has not played a game ranked above teams that have played is multiple games goes to bias.
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
I myself couldn't care about any polls or ranking till closer to conf champ games you need a sample size to see how teams are early season ranking are garbage.
 
DBCooper

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Firedog said:
It makes no more or less sense than anything else. Somebody decided on criteria and anytime that the team that wins the National Championship is not at the top of a power index at the end of the year the methodology is flawed. It fails to take into account what we all saw happen... if it does not account for what we SAW then how can it be predictive? Unless they changed methodology since the final one from last year? And to have any team that has not played a game ranked above teams that have played is multiple games goes to bias.
Click to expand...

I couldn’t disagree more.

As AN example.....who is the better team.....UNC or Ohio State?

Let’s assume you’re betting your own $1K😉
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Ohio st is loaded I despise the team but they would put hurting on at least number 4, 5, 7 and 8 ranked at moment. Not one thing with being happy about a teams ranking but I'm realist my team is one of the ones I mentioned and I know Ohio would beat them by no less than 14 of course barring any virus issues or major injuries.
 
alt1001

alt1001

Old Mossy Horns
LSU at #16 after getting beat by Mizzou and MsState, and USC moving up 2 spots to #10 despite not playing a game this season, oh and Texas and OU?

Leave it to DB to tout a broken model because of where it places UNC :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
Tipmoose

Tipmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
alt1001 said:
LSU at #16 after getting beat by Mizzou and MsState, and USC moving up 2 spots to #10 despite not playing a game this season, oh and Texas and OU?

Leave it to DB to tout a broken model because of where it places UNC :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...

You were fine until the last line.
 
Tipmoose

Tipmoose

Administrator
Staff member
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Last warning. Posting this for new users and those who act like new users.

Welcome to the new NASCAR and Sports forum - READ THIS.

We are going to start over with this forum. Since far too many people have demonstrated that they do not know how to behave as adults, we will implement this forum the way we should have implemented it to begin with. This forum will be for adult discussion of sports. There will be none of the...
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DBCooper

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hunting Nut said:
At this point, this year, UNC is.
Ohio State hasn't taken the field and proven one single thing.
Compared to every team that started on time, OSU is theoretically 0-4.
Click to expand...

Do you think Ohio State is really a worse team than ....say the No. 15 team (I didn’t even look to see who it is).....purely because they haven’t played a game?
You’d bet your own $1K on that?
 
Tipmoose

Tipmoose

Administrator
Staff member
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DBCooper said:
Do you think Ohio State is really a worse team than ....say the No. 15 team (I didn’t even look to see who it is).....purely because they haven’t played a game?
You’d bet your own $1K on that?
Click to expand...

My issue with OSU is the same as the one with Bama....how many of their top players opted out of the season?
 
Firedog

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
DBCooper said:
I couldn’t disagree more.

As AN example.....who is the better team.....UNC or Ohio State?

Let’s assume you’re betting your own $1K😉
Click to expand...
I am not surprised

No idea who the better team is. On paper and in theory Ohio State has the better athletes but I can cite you HUNDREDS of examples where the better athletes did not win the game because they were not the better team. Just last year as an example every one of the losers below had significantly better athletes than the winners did:

  • Illinois 24, Wisconsin 23 (Wisconsin -30.5)
  • Bowling Green 20, Toledo 7 (Toledo -27)
  • Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (Georgia Tech -26.5)
  • Georgia State 38, Tennessee 30 (Tennessee -24.5)
  • Kansas State 48, Oklahoma 41 (Oklahoma -23.5)
  • Vanderbilt 21, Missouri 14 (Missouri -21)
  • Florida International 30, Miami 24 (Miami -21)
  • South Carolina 20, Georgia 17, 2OT (Georgia -20.5)
  • San Jose State 31, Arkansas 24 (Arkansas -19.5)
  • UCLA 67, Washington State 63 (Washington State -18.5)
  • Georgia Tech 28, Miami 21, OT (Miami -18.5)
  • Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 (Missouri -16.5)

I am not betting $1K of my own money on any team that I have not seen actually play. An opinion poll is far different from a Power Index and there is no question in my mind that the one you posted is flawed to the point that it is worse than an opinion poll. Power indices adjust based on actual results.. since this one did not I dismiss it out of hand.
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Tipmoose said:
My issue with OSU is the same as the one with Bama....how many of their top players opted out of the season?
Click to expand...
My same question as soon as I heard they were gonna play I started keeping up with it. They had 2 future NFL guys opt out till decided to start in fall so they opted back in. I'm a well known hater of theirs since I could understand the game but that QB is tough their O line is mostly back with receivers and tight ends. Unfortunaly they'll be in mix in end I believe but hey its 2020 and they do tend to lay an egg which in short season would be less forgiving than others .
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Firedog said:
I am not surprised

No idea who the better team is. On paper and in theory Ohio State has the better athletes but I can cite you HUNDREDS of examples where the better athletes did not win the game because they were not the better team. Just last year as an example every one of the losers below had significantly better athletes than the winners did:

  • Illinois 24, Wisconsin 23 (Wisconsin -30.5)
  • Bowling Green 20, Toledo 7 (Toledo -27)
  • Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (Georgia Tech -26.5)
  • Georgia State 38, Tennessee 30 (Tennessee -24.5)
  • Kansas State 48, Oklahoma 41 (Oklahoma -23.5)
  • Vanderbilt 21, Missouri 14 (Missouri -21)
  • Florida International 30, Miami 24 (Miami -21)
  • South Carolina 20, Georgia 17, 2OT (Georgia -20.5)
  • San Jose State 31, Arkansas 24 (Arkansas -19.5)
  • UCLA 67, Washington State 63 (Washington State -18.5)
  • Georgia Tech 28, Miami 21, OT (Miami -18.5)
  • Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 (Missouri -16.5)

I am not betting $1K of my own money on any team that I have not seen actually play. An opinion poll is far different from a Power Index and there is no question in my mind that the one you posted is flawed to the point that it is worse than an opinion poll. Power indices adjust based on actual results.. since this one did not I dismiss it out of hand.
Click to expand...
I agree with you 100% only thing I'll say is those are regular season games for these teams to meet would be playoffs and that is whole different thing I'd easily put my grand on Ohio st beating UNC then without hesitation. It would hurt my soul bad to have root for them though
 
Firedog

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
turkeyfoot said:
I agree with you 100% only thing I'll say is those are regular season games for these teams to meet would be playoffs and that is whole different thing I'd easily put my grand on Ohio st beating UNC then without hesitation. It would hurt my soul bad to have root for them though
Click to expand...
If they were to meet in the playoffs I would have seen both play, at that point I would have real data on which to make a decision. I would have seen what kind of TEAM they both have.

One of the reasons that I do not like Preseason or even early season polls, it is all paper based. The Playoff committee not putting out rankings until mid season is a good thing. Will never happen because of TV, much easier to sell a Top 10 match up at 3:30 on Saturday on xxxx (ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN etc)
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Firedog said:
If they were to meet in the playoffs I would have seen both play, at that point I would have real data on which to make a decision. I would have seen what kind of TEAM they both have.

One of the reasons that I do not like Preseason or even early season polls, it is all paper based. The Playoff committee not putting out rankings until mid season is a good thing. Will never happen because of TV, much easier to sell a Top 10 match up at 3:30 on Saturday on xxxx (ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN etc)
Click to expand...
Very true never understood people getting excited about polls its usually around 2 games before end reg season before I give them any credit depending on who they played. Till then just a placemat and conversation piece.
 
DBCooper

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
turkeyfoot said:
Very true never understood people getting excited about polls its usually around 2 games before end reg season before I give them any credit depending on who they played. Till then just a placemat and conversation piece.
Click to expand...

But, if you had to bet your money.......

It was a specific question. Upsets happen, every week. But, they’re not the norm.....and I wouldn’t bet my hard-earned money on them.

NCA&T has played a few games. I’d still take Ohio State over them.
 
Hunting Nut

Hunting Nut

Old Mossy Horns
DBCooper said:
Do you think Ohio State is really a worse team than ....say the No. 15 team (I didn’t even look to see who it is).....purely because they haven’t played a game?
You’d bet your own $1K on that?
Click to expand...

No. I don't. BUT....
Ohio state has done nothing. Other teams are proven winners. At this point, Ohio State is nothing (0-0-0). Their estimated ranking on their Rep.
Their Rep, means diddly to me. Just like the rest of the teams that haven't played a game.

With an 8 game season, starting in Nov.... if Ohio State runs the table do you think they deserve to play for the National Championship ? Over a team that is 12-0 ? 14-0 ???
I do not.
As for me betting $1k on much of anything, it ain't gonna happen. Not a gambling man, here.
 
DBCooper

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hunting Nut said:
No. I don't. BUT....
Ohio state has done nothing. Other teams are proven winners. At this point, Ohio State is nothing (0-0-0). Their estimated ranking on their Rep.
Their Rep, means diddly to me. Just like the rest of the teams that haven't played a game.

With an 8 game season, starting in Nov.... if Ohio State runs the table do you think they deserve to play for the National Championship ? Over a team that is 12-0 ? 14-0 ???
I do not.
As for me betting $1k on much of anything, it ain't gonna happen. Not a gambling man, here.
Click to expand...

I think the playoff selections are still done on a subjective basis. The only thing that’s improved is.......the margin of error has been modified.

So, yeah. If OSU goes 8-0 (with their schedule), I’ll give them the nod over a 11-0 team with a lesser schedule.

If I’m betting my money, you can throw all of the ideologies out the window. I’m going to pick who I think is the best team.. not one that I “feel” like should be ranked, higher.
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Hunting Nut said:
Now that we've discussed all of this.
Who do you think will take the National Championship ?

I'll throw mine out first.
Clemson.
Click to expand...
Clemson is the likely answer just because they look like the more complete team that RB coming back really helped their cause takes pressure off QB. All other teams I've seen like Bama and Ga have pretty obvious holes. But it's just to early need see them all against competitive teams and even then the favorite doesn't win most of time in playoff format
 
Firedog

Firedog

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hunting Nut said:
Now that we've discussed all of this.
Who do you think will take the National Championship ?

I'll throw mine out first.
Clemson.
Click to expand...

Still to early for me to have an opinion, particularly having not seen any of the Big 10 play a game.. to win the championship, you have to make the playoff and I have not idea what the criteria for getting in will be given no (or very little) non conference.

I would say that Clemson will go from the ACC. SEC just getting started but Georgia or Bama maybe both will go.. then the Big 10 Champ.
 
turkeyfoot

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
Well we can see the big 12 is doing all they can to not send anyone to playoffs okl st is their last hope even though season is early.
 
DBCooper

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Hunting Nut said:
Now that we've discussed all of this.
Who do you think will take the National Championship ?

I'll throw mine out first.
Clemson.
Click to expand...

Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State (in alphabetical order)

I haven’t and probably won’t see any of them play........but, if I’m betting my money, I’d bet on one of them.
 
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