Coronavirus part deux

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
But we don’t know if the 2 in the hospital are even from Pitt. The one case here is definitely not in this county because we don’t have a hospital. My guess she is probably at vidant in Greenville but don’t know that for sure either
All he said was there were 10 cases from pitt county and 2 of those were in vidant. I also know there are more than 2 corona patients in vidant so I'm sure we have some from surrounding counties as well.
 

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Why not just test people showing symptoms? Why waste tests on thousands/millions who will never need hospitalization?
Because he knows there’s NO WAY there’ll be enough tests or manpower to test everyone.

And, if there’s not enough tests, they can use that as a cudjule against Trump.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Why not just test people showing symptoms? Why waste tests on thousands/millions who will never need hospitalization?
Mostly for true data instead of speculation. If we knew exact cases we could be saying for sure the IFR rate is no higher than the flu. If we knew exact number of cases we could say the CFR is lower than the 3.4 that was reported by the WHO.

This would alleviate the panic and speculation and take the unknown into scientific facts.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Mostly for true data instead of speculation. If we knew exact cases we could be saying for sure the IFR rate is no higher than the flu. If we knew exact number of cases we could say the CFR is lower than the 3.4 that was reported by the WHO.

This would alleviate the panic and speculation and take the unknown into scientific facts.

No, it won't. It will just cost LOTS more taxpayer $. We'll find out in due time what the death rate compared to confirmed cases becomes. Testing everybody just for the sake of "science" is lunacy.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
No, it won't. It will just cost LOTS more taxpayer $. We'll find out in due time what the death rate compared to confirmed cases becomes. Testing everybody just for the sake of "science" is lunacy.
That's not true death rate. That's CFR rate which will be inflated to the high side. This means there would be more concern than necessary based on known numbers.
 

Tipmoose

Administrator
Staff member
Contributor
No, it won't. It will just cost LOTS more taxpayer $. We'll find out in due time what the death rate compared to confirmed cases becomes. Testing everybody just for the sake of "science" is lunacy.
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
YES.........great post.
 

Buxndiverdux

Old Mossy Horns
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
I think health officials probably would if they had that luxury. But as of right now, we can't even test the people that think they may have it because that volume of testing isn't available yet.

Impossible to have testing kits available for a disease that's never been discovered before.
 

DBCooper

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
If we had the available test kits and the lab infrastructure to analyze them.....your scenario would be ideal.

We don’t. So, isn’t what we’re doing the next best thing?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
Yeah pretty much this, the thing is we know emphatically that this virus if left unchecked can ravage certain demographics and crush healthcare systems causing massive issues. Lombardy in Italy provided that sad harsh truth, now imagine that happening in NYC or RDU even.

Its also very easily spread and at some point the shutdowns and social distancing were going to come into play. Had we been able to confirm more people earlier and then contact trace their contacts and get as many of them into self isolation then it would have greatly impacted the spread of this virus. and maybe limited the need to do these actions. Instead it was left pretty much unchecked for a month and now there are probably hundreds of thousands if not millions with it. Luckily it appears that the measures that were taken could slow it down enough to prevent Italy like problems in the USA.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
The reason you test *everybody you can* is so you have real data on which to make decisions. You know....decisions like whether or not to shut down the worlds greatest economy for a month and shitcan 3 million jobs.

If we tested more people we would have found that one hell of a lot more of them were infected than we knew about. This would have told us what the real death rate from the disease would be. It also would have helped by informing the actually infected people (many of whom didnt even know they were infected)that they needed to self isolate. All of those things would have improved our understanding of the situation and prevented this shitshow we're seeing now.
But we don't have 660 million tests on hand to test everyone twice. By the time we compiled that wouldn't millions have had it and recovered? Wouldn't the data be corrupted anyways? I understand we can get real data for the Flu, because we can test for it. But an unkown virus 4 months ago, trying to build up tests for everyone now? Just for data? Seems ludicrous to me.
 

Buxndiverdux

Old Mossy Horns
Yeah pretty much this, the thing is we know emphatically that this virus if left unchecked can ravage certain demographics and crush healthcare systems causing massive issues. Lombardy in Italy provided that sad harsh truth, now imagine that happening in NYC or RDU even.

Its also very easily spread and at some point the shutdowns and social distancing were going to come into play. Had we been able to confirm more people earlier and then contact trace their contacts and get as many of them into self isolation then it would have greatly impacted the spread of this virus. and maybe limited the need to do these actions. Instead it was left pretty much unchecked for a month and now there are probably hundreds of thousands if not millions with it. Luckily it appears that the measures that were taken could slow it down enough to prevent Italy like problems in the USA.
Again. Aren’t you advocating the impossible? Who on earth could meet or exceed your agenda? Who has the financial wherewithal to prepare for these unknown viruses and stockpile supplies for the what if and when? I’m genuinely interested in your answer, and fully expect to be enlightened beyond my wildest imagination.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Again. Aren’t you advocating the impossible? Who on earth could meet or exceed your agenda? Who has the financial wherewithal to prepare for these unknown viruses and stockpile supplies for the what if and when? I’m genuinely interested in your answer, and fully expect to be enlightened beyond my wildest imagination.
Its not impossible we didn't even have test to test the early cases, other countries with way less resources than the US managed to do a much much much better job of dealing with this than we are so far.

You do not need to instantly test the entire population but you need to have several hundred thousand test and a system to quickly get results to be able to go into the hot spots and isolate as many cases and their contacts as possible, its about containment......but you cant contain what you don't know....what do you think cost more a few billion a year to maintain a pandemic response team and plan including stockpiles of medical supplies or crashing the entire US economy due to a pandemic? So yeah I expect the US government to have a plan for the "what if's", and how much you want to bet that we see just that after this is over...
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
@Tipmoose theres too many reports saying so many different things who knows what to trust.

I almost feel like it's just time to sit back and watch the truth on the ground in hardest hit areas. All the models are showing so many different scenarios.

 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
3 months from now, do you believe that the death rate will be higher than 1.5%?
Depends on a few factors to be honest. Even in Italy I believe that number is inflated because so many people that may have survived didnt because of a lack of resources I.E ventilators. To be sure some of those deaths were preventable if they weren't crushed by the volume of sick that they were.

If we prevent that from happening here then I think we keep the number down around that 1.5%. If we crash our systems and overwhelm ICU units all bets are off.
 

Sportsman

Old Mossy Horns
3-4 week quarantine along with ventilator production full steam ahead, I’m anticipating below 1.5 death rate when all said and done. Unfortunately, we’ll likely be $10 trillion in the hole with 10-15m additional unemployed.
 

Buxndiverdux

Old Mossy Horns
Its not impossible we didn't even have test to test the early cases, other countries with way less resources than the US managed to do a much much much better job of dealing with this than we are so far.

You do not need to instantly test the entire population but you need to have several hundred thousand test and a system to quickly get results to be able to go into the hot spots and isolate as many cases and their contacts as possible, its about containment......but you cant contain what you don't know....what do you think cost more a few billion a year to maintain a pandemic response team and plan including stockpiles of medical supplies or crashing the entire US economy due to a pandemic? So yeah I expect the US government to have a plan for the "what if's", and how much you want to bet that we see just that after this is over...
All propaganda as usual.

80% false postives in china... rushed and inadequate testing protocols... but rock on bro.

 
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