2019 Severe weather thread

[NCST8GUY]

I used to watch the weather channel CONSTANTLY, I bet I haven't seen an hours worth of it in the last 5 years combined. Heck when I put it on my tv now? I can't change the channel by entering another channel number. I have to go either up or down a channel. They suck! All drama, all the time.

 

[downeastnc]

I used to watch the weather channel CONSTANTLY, I bet I haven't seen an hours worth of it in the last 5 years combined. Heck when I put it on my tv now? I can't change the channel by entering another channel number. I have to go either up or down a channel. They suck! All drama, all the time.

Yeah I was a Weather Channel addict as well, a lot of my love of weather comes from watching those folks when I was a kid......


Here is the latest from the RAH NWS office concerning Friday.....another aspect will be the very high pwats which will will lead to ver heavy rain which will help get those screaming LLJ winds to the surface.....

The models continue to hone in on the heavy rain and severe
(damaging wind and isolated tornado) threat for Friday into Friday
evening for our region.

Increasing gradient southerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40
mph expected Friday.

The approaching mid/upper trough is forecast to become a full deep
trough/closed upper low as it approaches from the west on Friday and
Friday night. The main cold front is expected to push east through
central NC Friday afternoon into Friday night. An narrow but strong
plume of deep moisture will be tapped from the subtropics around
Cuba and Greater Antilles up and along the cold front. Most likely
record high precipitable water value anomalies in record territory
for the middle of April (+3 to +4 standard deviations above normal),
will lead to dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s feeding into
our region. This supply of moisture will lead to intense rainfall
rates of 2-3 inches per hour with the heaviest showers/thunderstorms
that will occur in bands as they move across the region Friday into
Friday evening. QPF on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches can be expected
with locally 2.5 inches storm totals (most areas will see the bursts
of heavy rain for 3-6 hours as the bands move through).

Flash flooding will be possible given the saturated ground and
recent high river levels. In addition, there is a chance of severe
thunderstorms. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts as very
strong winds aloft are forecast which can be tapped in the stronger
and more intense cells or bands. Hail should be limited given the
warm conveyor belt of subtropical moisture aloft. If there is any
sun or breaks in the overcast (most likely in the Coastal Plain and
eastward) then the damaging wind threat would increase given as the
low level instability that can be tapped will become higher.

 

[shaggy]

If any of you guys have started tomato plants you might want to secure them friday because the winds will be strong all day. I'd keep an ear to the weather because if its stronger than the projected 40mph some loose yard objects could be an issue.

 

[downeastnc]

SPC has eastern half of NC in enhanced with the rest of the state in slight...timing should be mid to late morning out west and early to late afternoon in the east......regardless of whether there are severe storms the general wind field will make for a extremely blustery day with gust well into the 30's in advance of the storms. So those with outside plans or jobs need to be aware that Friday gonna be a rough day outside....when the storms and squall get here they will tap into a very strong flow aloft and there should be bowing line segments of storms with gust 70-80 mph that could be fairly widespread.



From the Storm Prediction Center write up

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley early Friday morning
is expected to continue eastward, maturing into a well-formed
mid-latitude cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians by the
end of the period. Very strong flow aloft will exist throughout the
base of the upper trough, with the strongest flow developing within
its eastern periphery Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday
morning. 500-mb flow could exceed 100 kt, which is near record
values across the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic based on SPC
sounding climatology. In contrast to these impressive dynamics,
overall thermodynamic environment will be marginal. Given that ample
low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 60s
to low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 12 g/kg), the modest
instability is largely a result of warm temperatures aloft and
consequent poor lapse rates.

 

[Greg]

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed. We FINALLY just got the ~ $25K roof (and other) damage from Hurricane Michael fixed.

 

[Greg]

Just yanking you guys chain, but it's getting silly with the named winter storms and such. Weather drama is all it is, not weather "news" but rather weather entertainment.

I'm wondering if it isn't all part of the "globa " … uh .. I mean … "climate change" agenda from algore, chicka and their minions.

 

[NCST8GUY]

Figures seeing as how Friday is Charity Laps at VIR

 

[45/70 hunter]

Local stations are talking up bad storms tomorrow evening. Hype or is it looking rough??

 

[shaggy]

Local stations are talking up bad storms tomorrow evening. Hype or is it looking rough??

The models are spitting out some crazy dynamics and they are quite frankly concerning. However, they are extreme and my personal opinion is the more extreme the less likely to occur in the modeled form. Here is Raleigh's NWS discussion. I'll highlight the important tidbits. Gonna be a rough day potentially. With the gusts into upper 30's low 40's even before the storms you all might want to take care of any outside objects that may blow around.

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say
the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE), dangerous model shear (Bulk: 45 to 55kts; SFC -> 1km: 20 -
30kts) and helicity values, and near-record PWat values (1.5 inches
+). Assuming at least some surface heating is allowed between the
WAA pre-frontal showers, the environment looks prime for a very
active weather day across the Carolinas. A quick overview of each
threat is below.

Winds: First, ahead of the primary frontal passage, strong southerly
flow will become enhanced thanks to a rapidly tightening pressure
gradient. This will allow for some pretty impressive southerly
surface wind values, especially along and east of US-1. These areas
could easily see sustained southerly winds in the 20s (kts), with
persistent gusts as high as the mid 30s/low 40s. A wind advisory may
need to be considered over the next few forecast periods. In terms
of the front/convection impacts, damaging winds will remain the
primary and most widespread impact thanks to the likely linear
predominant storm mode. The strongest cells will likely be capable
of producing wind gusts as high as 60 to 70mph, with locally
stronger gusts possible in a wet-microbursts type regime.

Tornadoes: Models continue to spit out some alarming low and mid-
level shear values which, if realized, would easily support the
formation of a few tornadoes across our region. Still some
uncertainty on favored locations at this point, likely dependent in
large part to surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual
strength and placement of the meso-low and attendant triple point.
For now, best helicity values seem to be centered across the
southern Sandhills and Coastal Plain counties. This will need some
massaging as the event nears, however, having a plan in place just
in case a Tornado Warning is issued on Friday afternoon and evening
is certainly advised.

 

[shaggy]

Here is a briefing from morehead city as well. The big take away for the coastal guys is the winds before the storms can be strong and its possible for there to be tree damage before the line of storms even gets here.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

 

[Redneck Rocker Dude]

The models are spitting out some crazy dynamics and they are quite frankly concerning. However, they are extreme and my personal opinion is the more extreme the less likely to occur in the modeled form. Here is Raleigh's NWS discussion. I'll highlight the important tidbits. Gonna be a rough day potentially. With the gusts into upper 30's low 40's even before the storms you all might want to take care of any outside objects that may blow around.

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say
the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE), dangerous model shear (Bulk: 45 to 55kts; SFC -> 1km: 20 -
30kts) and helicity values, and near-record PWat values (1.5 inches
+). Assuming at least some surface heating is allowed between the
WAA pre-frontal showers, the environment looks prime for a very
active weather day across the Carolinas. A quick overview of each
threat is below.

Winds: First, ahead of the primary frontal passage, strong southerly
flow will become enhanced thanks to a rapidly tightening pressure
gradient. This will allow for some pretty impressive southerly
surface wind values, especially along and east of US-1. These areas
could easily see sustained southerly winds in the 20s (kts), with
persistent gusts as high as the mid 30s/low 40s. A wind advisory may
need to be considered over the next few forecast periods. In terms
of the front/convection impacts, damaging winds will remain the
primary and most widespread impact thanks to the likely linear
predominant storm mode. The strongest cells will likely be capable
of producing wind gusts as high as 60 to 70mph, with locally
stronger gusts possible in a wet-microbursts type regime.

Tornadoes: Models continue to spit out some alarming low and mid-
level shear values which, if realized, would easily support the
formation of a few tornadoes across our region. Still some
uncertainty on favored locations at this point, likely dependent in
large part to surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual
strength and placement of the meso-low and attendant triple point.
For now, best helicity values seem to be centered across the
southern Sandhills and Coastal Plain counties. This will need some
massaging as the event nears, however, having a plan in place just
in case a Tornado Warning is issued on Friday afternoon and evening
is certainly advised.

I saw one of the "pay for my subscription and I'll tell you what's gonna happen" weathermen try to hype this up as potentially being worse than 4/16/11.. any truth to that or he just trying to fear monger people into paying for his emails?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

[downeastnc]

Local stations are talking up bad storms tomorrow evening. Hype or is it looking rough??

It will be rough, but there is also places that wont get much if any bad weather.....its not possible to say point A will get severe weather and point B will be missed...everywhere will see showers and storms but not all of those will be severe.....there is a much better chance of seeing widespread damaging winds over central and eastern NC. This will be in addition to the general gusty winds that will gust to 35-40 mph over the entire state.

There are as always "what if's" that can change how this all plays out, right now in general instability tomorrow will be low because we should be mostly cloudy all day, and the strong southerly flow will keep the mid level warmer thus temp profiles vertically will be close together.....generally there needs to be a contrast to the temp gradient vertically to get really bad storms. However due to the strong nature of the wind field aloft and the strong forcing of a negatively tilted trough storms are going to be able to fire up even with these inhibiting factors.

If you read the post Shaggy just made you will see Raleigh NWS talk about surface heating and meso lows. Basically if somehow its not as cloudy and we get more sun than they expect this will increase instability and increase that contrast and this would essentially give the storms more energy to work with and thus increase the chances of a widespread damaging wind event. Secondly there will be a leeside or meso surface low ( the main storm up north is a mid/upper level low ) forming over the upstate eastside of the Apps and that will track roughly NE....this will cause the wind flow to veer to the SE at the surface but the air above the surface will continue to scream up from the south. This "turning" in the wind field is what cause tornados, the strength and track of the low will create a area of enhanced risk for tornados and that can not be pinpointed yet.

 

[downeastnc]

I saw one of the "pay for my subscription and I'll tell you what's gonna happen" weathermen try to hype this up as potentially being worse than 4/16/11.. any truth to that or he just trying to fear monger people into paying for his emails?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Yeah thats a bit of a stretch, but a lot of the reason there is so much talk around this event is that the LLJ ( low level jet) over NC is being shown to be at all time high values tomorrow, now in Apr 2011 we had a very strong meso low form with a triple point low, a very strong LLJ and everything came together perfectly to create a horrible afternoon. I guess if we somehow ended up with a lot of sun, and the meso low formed and tracked perfectly then tomorrow could have several big tornados but I really dont think it would be as widespread or insane like Apr 2011, but you have to understand if there are several tornados tomorrow and they tear up farm land no one will remember Apr 2019 but if there are several tornados that hit big cities and do a lot of damage and cause deaths etc then folks will remember Apr 2019.

Who is the guy hyping this up I know a few of the pay guys for NC, personally I think mentioning Apr 2011 at this point is kinda hypey but it gets peoples attention and thus makes them focus on the weather more which is a good thing given the setup, and people always ask is it going to be as bad a "insert bad weather day here" etc so I understand why some of them do it. I wouldnt and the current setup is not currently looking comparable at all.....though like I said if a few things happened it could be close.

 

[FireDuck401]

It will be rough, but there is also places that wont get much if any bad weather.....its not possible to say point A will get severe weather and point B will be missed...everywhere will see showers and storms but not all of those will be severe.....there is a much better chance of seeing widespread damaging winds over central and eastern NC. This will be in addition to the general gusty winds that will gust to 35-40 mph over the entire state.

There are as always "what if's" that can change how this all plays out, right now in general instability tomorrow will be low because we should be mostly cloudy all day, and the strong southerly flow will keep the mid level warmer thus temp profiles vertically will be close together.....generally there needs to be a contrast to the temp gradient vertically to get really bad storms. However due to the strong nature of the wind field aloft and the strong forcing of a negatively tilted trough storms are going to be able to fire up even with these inhibiting factors.

If you read the post Shaggy just made you will see Raleigh NWS talk about surface heating and meso lows. Basically if somehow its not as cloudy and we get more sun than they expect this will increase instability and increase that contrast and this would essentially give the storms more energy to work with and thus increase the chances of a widespread damaging wind event. Secondly there will be a leeside or meso surface low ( the main storm up north is a mid/upper level low ) forming over the upstate eastside of the Apps and that will track roughly NE....this will cause the wind flow to veer to the SE at the surface but the air above the surface will continue to scream up from the south. This "turning" in the wind field is what cause tornados, the strength and track of the low will create a area of enhanced risk for tornados and that can not be pinpointed yet.

Thanks. I appreciate weather info being given readily and without excess nonsense.

 

[Starfan]

Thanks. I appreciate weather info being given readily and without excess nonsense.

Thank you guys for all of this valuable information. My wife and daughter are supposed to go to our house in Morehead in the morning. I don’t know if I should let them go or suggest that they stay home. Any thoughts?

 

[Starfan]

Thank you guys for all of this valuable information. My wife and daughter are supposed to go to our house in Morehead in the morning. I don’t know if I should let them go or suggest that they stay home. Any thoughts?

I didn’t mean to reply to you’re post Fireduck

 

[shaggy]

Thank you guys for all of this valuable information. My wife and daughter are supposed to go to our house in Morehead in the morning. I don’t know if I should let them go or suggest that they stay home. Any thoughts?

This will have the potential to be wide ranging event so as far as storms go whether they are at the beach or at your house is not so important. The bigger reason to keep them home is the wind tomorrow will be gusting 40-60mph along the beaches even without storms. Not a good beach day with all the blowing sand and stuff.

 

[Homebrewale]

If any of you guys have started tomato plants you might want to secure them friday because the winds will be strong all day. I'd keep an ear to the weather because if its stronger than the projected 40mph some loose yard objects could be an issue.

The office meteorologists expressed more of a concern for hail than wind when it comes to the garden plants.

 

[shaggy]

The office meteorologists expressed more of a concern for hail than wind when it comes to the garden plants.

Yeah that would be a killer with the young plants. It's a good thing the farmers havent planted yet.

 

[Starfan]

This will have the potential to be wide ranging event so as far as storms go whether they are at the beach or at your house is not so important. The bigger reason to keep them home is the wind tomorrow will be gusting 40-60mph along the beaches even without storms. Not a good beach day with all the blowing sand and stuff.

Thanks for you’re input.

 

[shaggy]

Yeah winds 40 to 60 isnt any good.

 

[downeastnc]

The latest models just solidify the setup as one that SHOULD lend itself to a very rough day...still you have to understand that in weather terms we are talking 20-30% coverage, meaning that 70-80% of places WILL NOT SEE severe warning criteria weather even in areas that get severe thunderstorm warnings. They will probably blanket warn the entire line when it comes through and not everyone will get the crazy wind gust etc and its impossible to predict who will. The upper level winds are very high for this time of year, and likely will set a new April record for winds speeds aloft. The only other times I have seen 850 mb wind profiles like we see in the models for tomorrow is when tropical systems are landfalling....

 

[shaggy]

Gonna be a rough one tomorrow. Listen to your warnings and be careful.

 

[NCST8GUY]

They have ReScheduled Charity laps at VIR!!!!! Woohoo!

 

[downeastnc]

Unless something drastic changes tomorrow will be a big severe weather day for a lot of NC.....all the data suggest a record setting wind field for this time of year aloft and with storms to mix that down plenty of places are going to see winds 40-50 mph and there will even be numerous areas especially over central and eastern NC that could see straight line winds in thunderstorms exceed 60-80 mph. The general wind field will allow 30-40 mph gust from mid morning on ( some models have it that windy by daybreak) so even before the storms get going its going to be a windy day.

There is also models supporting a late morning early afternoon period of semi discrete to discrete supercell thunderstorms if that happens there will be a higher chance of tornados with them, though later in the main squall QLCS type spin up tornados are likely. All in all like Shaggy said listen to those warnings.....

 

[Thomas270]

Thank y’all for the info, may have to rethink turkey plans for the am.

 

[Willie]

Trying to get back home from Des Moines to RDU tomorrow afternoon/evening through Chicago.
Bet I’m stuck in Iowa for another night or Chicago tomorrow night.

 

[downeastnc]

Trying to get back home from Des Moines to RDU tomorrow afternoon/evening through Chicago.
Bet I’m stuck in Iowa for another night or Chicago tomorrow night.

You will be ok if the flight is arriving after say 7-8 pm probably still will be a little bumpy.

 

[Willie]

You will be ok if the flight is arriving after say 7-8 pm probably still will be a little bumpy.

That’s good to hear. Supposed to be in around 9:30.

 

[downeastnc]

That’s good to hear. Supposed to be in around 9:30.

Yeah the worse should be east of RDU by then but coming down from cruise you will pass trough the backside rain shield and that will be bumpy but it certainly wont be anything out of the ordinary......