2019 Severe weather thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Troubling trends in the models the Euro just ran a Cat 3 scraping the OBX, not what they need, and worse there is a storm trailing that one by just 3 days that could threaten NC as well......gotta hope this trend is wrong....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
:( Not what I want to read!!
Yeah and we are talking a week away so plenty of time for things to change.....and right now it looks like its just mainly a threat to the OBX, though that could change....and probably will though its inside 7 days and folks out their especially on Ocracoke do not need this at all.

This is the Euro and it would be hurricane conditions on the OBX with big sound side surge issues.....the storm is moving due north

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091200_198_480_149.png

The Ukie was the other close call the storm is moving ENE at this point and this is about as close to the coast of NC as it gets....

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019091200_126_480_149.png
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Euro out so far is weaker and west. That's both good and bad. It's good because its weaker but bad because that means it has to do a harder recurve to miss us. Of concern is the icon and euro that both show a slowdown and east movement before resuming a nnw movement. In order to miss us the east movement has to carry it east of hatteras. The further west it gets the harder that becomes.

Another change that might come about is where the models initiate the storm and where the storm may actually develop. That can change the models a lot in the future so that's something to keep in mind.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
ThenOP euro run is why thisnis such a crucial evolution on this storm. It starts east after getting pretty far west near Florida. It the abruptly stops and turns north missing OBX barely and then moving due north until landfall over NJ. Obviously if you.mpve that track 50 to 100 miles west it's a major landfall over NC. Move it east and it's just a breezy day at the beach.

Get ready for another nailbiter.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
It will be official at 5pm they will start advisories on the system. This should help with modeling as they will designate a COC which can then be ingested into the models for future runs.
 

45/70 hunter

Ten Pointer
It will be official at 5pm they will start advisories on the system. This should help with modeling as they will designate a COC which can then be ingested into the models for future runs.
Appreciate you keeping us informed but not happy with the info :(
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Appreciate you keeping us informed but not happy with the info :(
So it was a basic advisory and not as a developed storm yet. They call it PTC instead of a TD. This was so they could issue warnings for the hard hit areas of the Bahamas.

They went with a blend of models and state the forecast is of lower than normal confidence.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Here is a gif showing the trend on the Euro and why this is concerning for NC especially the OBX....the earlier Euro runs were all slower and east allowing the storm to get far enough east that when the door got slammed it was still able to miss Hatteras and NC to the east.....this gif shows the Euro storm position for the same time frame, the top of the image will have 3 times 108, 96, 90 the model runs every 6 hrs so these plots are all valid for 6am Monday morning.

The gif shows the Euro is faster and further NW with the storm, the 90 hr map plot is the most recent Euro that ran at 6pm this evening....the reason it is concerning is that from there most models agree there will be a ENE turn for a day or so before it stalls again and then begins moves back N or even a bit NNW as the ridge off NE builds in......so the further west it gets short term should translate to the less east it gets later and that is why it is a worrisome trend.....if the storm stall south of Hatteras instead of 150 SE of Hatteras then the chance it comes north and directly impacts at least the OBX goes way up....however also keep in mind this storm has not even fully formed yet and once it does it could have a impact on the models so this is very preliminary stuff so no need to get to worried yet.....still you OBX folks need to watch it like a hawk.

EPStrend.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models shifted well east on the 00Z runs, they miss the US ( well after flirting with Florida as a weak system ) and go far enough east to actually threaten Bermuda....I do tend to be more wary of big sudden changes so lets see if this new trend holds.....
 

hunthard2

Ten Pointer
Models shifted well east on the 00Z runs, they miss the US ( well after flirting with Florida as a weak system ) and go far enough east to actually threaten Bermuda....I do tend to be more wary of big sudden changes so lets see if this new trend holds.....
What will Florida’s, specifically Tampa, from this as of now? I’m supposed to make a run down there Monday but I have no intention of playing with a big storm while down there


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Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What will Florida’s, specifically Tampa, from this as of now? I’m supposed to make a run down there Monday but I have no intention of playing with a big storm while down there


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The only models that flirt with anything in Tampa are all weak and it would just be a breezy rainy day. Almost all models are coming in stronger and off the east coast of Florida. By Sunday the cone will not include Tampa IMO as long as the east shifts continue to hold.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
It is now a TD but recurve scenario is likely so the threat has decreased even for Florida by a lot. Not too worried at all anymore and can now focus back on 96L which is still crossing the atlantic.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
What will Florida’s, specifically Tampa, from this as of now? I’m supposed to make a run down there Monday but I have no intention of playing with a big storm while down there


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Should be no impact to Tampa at all....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Humberto looks to be a a fish storm ( one that never effects anything but the fishes ) at least IRT the USA.....there has been however a increase in the spread of the ENS, and this means that a change, possibly big changes could be about to happen in the modeling....the Euro has 51 members in its ENS, yesterday out of all 51 of those runs only 2 ever hit the US, today that is up to 16......might not be anything but the storm is a little behind schedule and if it stays far enough south it will not get as influenced by the trough and wont get tugged out east and out to sea, if that somehow happens the storms would stall out east of FL/GA and then the ridge building in behind the trough COULD cause the storm to go NW and get very close if not landfall in the US and sticking out like we do NC would be the prime target....this is VERY UNLIKELY based on all current modeling but there is some evidence in the ENS with more ENS picking up on that scenario that it could happen, we need to not take our eyes off of it till its hauling ass past Bermuda headed for the middle ATL...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Here is a what I was talking about in the above post notice some ENS get left behind by the trough then go NW when the ridge builds in..really 3 things happen here the first set of ENS that almost immediately turn back south are runs that keep the system very weak and very shallow this changes what steering currents effect it and force it back south to die as nothing.....then the remainder turn ENE and there is another split where some ENS at stall and turn back NW or even NNW at different points.....basically this is a step in teh wrong direction yesterday these were nice and clustered with only a couple turning back NW.....time will tell if this is a legit trend or if the OTS track is gonna hold up....even if it does turn only 6 or 7 are threats to the US but all those tracks are fairly strong hurricanes.....

gif.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Well Humberto looks great and is really getting his act together as he exit stage right......Bermuda might have to deal with a close shave but even they will probably miss the worst of it....

That leave us with 97L which models also bring into the SW Atl north of the islands in 5-6 day.....hopefully it also ends up turning out to sea....
two_atl_5d0 (1).png

after that one maybe the tropics will calm down though Oct has been busy the last several years.....but by deer season gun opener here in the east I am hoping we start getting into a few months of wonderful fall weather before we start watching for the big snow storm setups.....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Right now almost all guidance shows a pretty sharp north turn very near the 5 day plot from NHC, if it misses that turn then a SE landfall or close miss becomes fairly likely....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
lets go with "all guidance" :)
Yeah all the guidance had Florence going EAST of Bermuda in the early stages, and well she didn't end there did she lol.....overall the setup the models currently have with the upper level steering currents make a US landfall extremely unlikely, but we are talking 7-10 days out so there will be some changes much to early to tell.....I would say at this point I am cautiously optimistic that we wont have a hurricane a few weeks before deer rifle opener lol....in fact this prolonged dry spell is perfect, will limit water options and dry up the ditches IE no skeeters......
 
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