2019 Severe weather thread

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Tor warned storm out in western NC .....rotation would have been near Valdese....kind of broad but its a seriously rough storm...
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
I've been watching this and weather channel on tv all morning. Unless I missed it every thing so far has been rain wrapped.
Yeah the tail end charlie cell in southern Louisiana is about to go bonkers the setup around it is insane probably going to see a long track strong tornado with that storm in central LA.....its developing the classic spread eagle/dragon radar image....might not be rain wrapped but so far most have been....
 

Papa_Smurf

Ten Pointer
Contributor
That tornadic cell in western NC is going to go right into Hickory....

Cloud movement is certainly odd. Lower level clouds moving east to west. Upper level moving west to east. I’m about 7 miles due east from hickory on the river.


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NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
And the Masters in Agusta just announced that because of the impending storms tomorrow, they are going to be in groups of 3 AND start from both holes 1 and 10 at 7:15 am!!!! They are hoping to finish safely, on Sunday. I hope it works out for them! Seems like a LOT of people are going to be affected tomorrow, and they are today.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
As usual, the models are giving us a look at what could happen but as seen today in the dixie alley great dynamics didn't produce the number or types of tornadoes expected. The concern is for us overnight tomorrow night and it COULD get ugly. Or it could be a dud like it was today.....that doesn't mean we take our guards down. Its gonna be a sleepless night for me as I'll be tracking storms not just for my families safety but because I'm a weather addict! Heres what the Raleigh NWS office has to say about it........heed their words!!

Meanwhile the strong mid level jet on the
order of 80-90kts projected to cross our region overnight. Close to
the sfc, a stout sly flow will maintain a moist and warm atmosphere.
Anticipate an active line of t-storms to cross into the western
Piedmont between 01z and 04Z, reaching the highway 1 corridor around
06Z. While storms normally weaken overnight due to nocturnal
stabilization, these storms may actually increase in intensity after
midnight due to the available instability and the strong kinematic
field. This may set the stage for tornadic t-storms to occur
overnight, a potentially dangerous situation since most folks will
be asleep when the most active weather may be occurring.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Yep tomorrow night could be a rough one and the timing is terrible, Zulu time is 6 hrs ahead of us so 06Z is midnight, though the latest model runs have come in a few hrs faster.....hopefully the models will get a good handle on it tomorrow.....luckily for the folks out west the atmosphere capping was low and this allowed numerous constant storms this makes it hard for discrete supercells to form saving them from a terrible day, that said there have been at least 3 deaths so far reported.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
What's it looking like today for tonight?
Backed off on the hi res as far as multiple supercells. Several different convective models are showing different degrees of coverage and storm mode. At this point I'm less confident in widespread severe since those models are backing off some.

Was a bad night in Dixie alley. Several fatalities and numerous tornados.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
The problem is we probably wont know how much energy is left over for the main "front" to work with until later today into this evening. The overall setup is bad, the low level jet will be screaming at 50-90 knts that is high enough that any tornado's that form could easily be EF2-4 versus the usual weaker stuff we see here in NC. They would also be more likely to be long lives ( which in tornado terms means more than a few miles ) again assuming that any happen at all.

The atmosphere is primed tonight especially between 10 pm and 4am and any storms that do form will likely rotate, and any storm that rotates will likely produce a tornado, and any tornado produced will likely be on the stronger side....so its kind of wait and see. Tonight is a great example of why every single house should have a NOAA weather radio.
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
The problem is we probably wont know how much energy is left over for the main "front" to work with until later today into this evening. The overall setup is bad, the low level jet will be screaming at 50-90 knts that is high enough that any tornado's that form could easily be EF2-4 versus the usual weaker stuff we see here in NC. They would also be more likely to be long lives ( which in tornado terms means more than a few miles ) again assuming that any happen at all.

The atmosphere is primed tonight especially between 10 pm and 4am and any storms that do form will likely rotate, and any storm that rotates will likely produce a tornado, and any tornado produced will likely be on the stronger side....so its kind of wait and see. Tonight is a great example of why every single house should have a NOAA weather radio.
Is there not an app we can get on our phones?
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Is there not an app we can get on our phones?
ehhhhh nothing that I really like, there are a lot of things out there that say they will alert you etc.....

A few tornado warnings in NC here and there none of the couplets have been very bad though, given the best dynamics wont get in till this evening and overnight.......its still very hard to tell how this plays out overnight in NC, there could be very little in the way of storms or semi discrete supes with tornados......
 

NCST8GUY

Frozen H20 Guy
Taking down my umprella over the Grill and my whillygigs, other than that, I hope my phone alerts me if I'm in trouble. I do sleep in a safe spot though, unless a nader comes from the SE, highly unlikely.
 

double

Twelve Pointer
I’m going to sleep like a baby.......if it’s my time to go......so be it!
Im with you. I made my peace with god many years ago on a mountain top in WV. I will say a prayer for my family and everyone else’s safety tonight just like most other nights.


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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Looking like things could be bad for central/eastern NC here over the next 3-5 hrs.....if you get a tornado warning it will probably be likely to actually be producing a tornado in this setup and they will probably be fairly strong tornado's.

Hopefully it does not happen.....
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
We got pretty lucky with that last event, most of the tornados were weak and the timing allowed the main front to pass with just garden variety severe storms....

This coming Friday looks pretty rough with another very strong low level jet max crossing NC, there will be winds gusting 40-50 mph out of the south well before the front and the front itself will have a squall line with it that will get straight line winds up to 60-80 mph in places. This has a much better chance of being a widespread event versus the more hit or miss nature with tornadic type storms. 60 knts is roughly 75 mph and 925 mb is roughly 2000-2500 ft off the ground, so when you get a squall line or thunderstorm it helps "transport" those winds downward.

This is the write up from the MHX NWS office last night and is for the coastal plains though this setup is the same for most of the state.

Friday...An exceptionally high amplitude trough sliding over
the eastern US will develop a cut-off/stacked low Friday. This
low has 500 mb geopotential height values 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal. Confidence has increased that a cold
front associated with the attendant surface low will arrive
during the day Friday. A very strong LLJ (>60 kt around 925 mb)
will develop across the area as the stacked low passes inland,
riding northward along the Appalachian chain Friday and Friday
night. LLJ winds will readily mix to the surface during the day,
bringing strong/gusty winds, especially to coastal areas. A
wind advisory or warning may be needed for at least some of the
area. From a severe weather perspective: Instability is the
question as a moist prefrontal airmass will keep skies cloudy
and there is potential for showers ahead of the primary band of
convection, both inhibiting factors for the development of
surface based instability. Still, shear is strong enough to
justify a continued slight risk of severe weather from SPC, with
damaging wind gusts the primary concern in the strongest
 

Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
No offense but do weather guys always talk about the worst that can happen?


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yep you don't hardly ever hear them say, well there's an 80% chance of sun today. It's always a 20% chance of rain.
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
No offense but do weather guys always talk about the worst that can happen?


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Well when the weather is stable and sunny every day theres not much to talk about. It's only when a weather event is approaching is there anything really worth mentioning.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
No offense but do weather guys always talk about the worst that can happen?


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Well they tend to go worse case as its better to be ready versus being surprised....in a lot of ways social media has pushed this as people get really vocal when the weather is worse they thought it was going to be or claim they were not warned etc...then also I mean what is there to really talk about when the weather is like today, its wonderful and also uneventful....I mean they are not going to issue a warning and be like watch out tomorrow is going to be sunny and mild with no rain....they do tend to focus on when the weather will be making a bigger impact on your actual activities etc. Like if you plan on holding a event outside on Friday and are using say tents or bouncy houses for kids etc your gonna be in trouble and getting the word out that Friday is probably going to be a windy day even without the storms and stuff is a good idea and useful information to have.


yep you don't hardly ever hear them say, well there's an 80% chance of sun today. It's always a 20% chance of rain.
In their defense if they dont mention the rain and it rains people hammer them for it.....or the public gets upset when it rains when there was "only" a 20% chance because most people do not understand how that 20% is derived.....they go well it rained at my house so there should have been a 100% chance of rain. People dont care that weather people are right 95% of the time they just hammer them for the 5% they miss.
 

Eric Revo

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
Well they tend to go worse case as its better to be ready versus being surprised....in a lot of ways social media has pushed this as people get really vocal when the weather is worse they thought it was going to be or claim they were not warned etc...then also I mean what is there to really talk about when the weather is like today, its wonderful and also uneventful....I mean they are not going to issue a warning and be like watch out tomorrow is going to be sunny and mild with no rain....they do tend to focus on when the weather will be making a bigger impact on your actual activities etc. Like if you plan on holding a event outside on Friday and are using say tents or bouncy houses for kids etc your gonna be in trouble and getting the word out that Friday is probably going to be a windy day even without the storms and stuff is a good idea and useful information to have.




In their defense if they dont mention the rain and it rains people hammer them for it.....or the public gets upset when it rains when there was "only" a 20% chance because most people do not understand how that 20% is derived.....they go well it rained at my house so there should have been a 100% chance of rain. People dont care that weather people are right 95% of the time they just hammer them for the 5% they miss.
Just yanking you guys chain, but it's getting silly with the named winter storms and such. Weather drama is all it is, not weather "news" but rather weather entertainment.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Just yanking you guys chain, but it's getting silly with the named winter storms and such. Weather drama is all it is, not weather "news" but rather weather entertainment.
I agree naming winter storms is a bit silly and that's a TWC thing no one else really does that, certainly not the NWS which is and forever will be IMO the leading weather service in this nation and the world.

Also the whole polar vortex or cyclone bomb stuff is just hype though both of those are legit meteorological terms and events.
 
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