2019 Severe weather thread

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Holy cow you ain't lying. Just looked at windy and saw that. What did your friend say? Have they ever been hit by a tropical system like that?
Hurricane Juan in 2003 made.landfall over Halifax nova Scotia as a cat 2. Massive damage and buoys at the mouth of the bay there snapped their moorings after recording waves over 60ft.
 

.35Rem

Four Pointer
Holy cow you ain't lying. Just looked at windy and saw that. What did your friend say? Have they ever been hit by a tropical system like that?
Still waiting on him to get back. He got connectivity briefly and sent a blast saying all were good but no details.
 

turkeyfoot

Old Mossy Horns
We just got back into our house a month ago from Florence. Lost some shingles as well as some of the siding on the East side of home. Water got in from double doors as well as a few windows. Tide got into garage but no extensive flooding. Nothing in comparison to last storm. Glad this one moved fast. Imagine what a Cat 5 would do to our coast even with modern construction. Clean up continues today. View attachment 32740View attachment 32741
View attachment 32748


Glad I purchased two new commercial chains for my saw before the storm. After all of these years, I finally learned how to get a saw to start on the first crank. Sea foam along with using that premixed 50-1 fuel.






Anyone that wants to donate supplies to Ocracoke see below Hyde County contact numbers. Please share.
Donations Management 1-833-543-3248
Volunteer Management 252-305-2685
I sure hate it for y'all in east. Hopefully this be last one for long while y'all had your share over last 2 years
 

Roanoke

Six Pointer
You see the new inlet at Swash. No longer able to drive to parts of Portsmouth. Trucks are going to be stacked up like RDU traffic jam on the Banks this fall
 

Justin

Old Mossy Horns
Be curious to see how the fall storms affect Portsmouth and if NPS will try to fix it. It’s chopped up and cut all to pieces.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models all over the place with where the hurricane that should form from the wave just now over western Africa goes...there will be a chance for it to curve north and turn out to sea well east of the US, IF it were to not get picked up and left behind then there is decent chance the WAR will take the storm into the SW Atl and threaten the US again...every few runs the GFS shows a US hit around Sept 22-25th
 

stiab

Ten Pointer
Contributor
Fall storms will fill in some of these cut's but we were down there this weekend in the boat and it's a sad sight. Some places you can drive a boat through

Wow, that is a wonderful site, thanks. I scrolled all the way from Core Banks up to Nags Head, estimated the location I wanted to see, enlarged, and zeroed right in on the exact house. Thanks again!
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Where do you see those models?
There are numerous sites, the ones I use the most are below....there are also some specialty sites that run more technical stuff but overall these sites cover the basic suite of global and hi res models.....the GF/Euro/Ukmet/Icon/CMC are the globals, I guess technically the NAM32 and 12K are global shorter range models as well.....then there are the hi res shorter term models designed to look at a higher resolution those are models like 3K Nam, Rgem, HRRR and are used more for mesoscale stuff like thunderstorms....there will be some difference between the models when ran on the different sites, they all use slightly different algorithms to crunch the raw data...



 

Roanoke

Six Pointer
When a storm gets a name I start taking pictures of the data from Radar US and start watching the pressure. Lower the mb the stronger the storm. When Dorian hit NC the pressure was 956mb.

Was out in a curtain box on the North end of Ocracoke years ago. When we left out of Odens, a commercial fisherman came up and told us not to go out because the pressure was really dropping. We paid him no mind because we did not have a charter and a hard North West wind really pushes the birds to that part of the reef. Wind speed got up to 30 knots and we were having an epic hunt. Then the wind picked up to steady 50 knots. Lost about 100 decoys and the wing to the box blew away. It got dangerous quick. If it had been cold we would have died.


To this day, I keep a barometer on the boat. Judging weather can sometimes be a matter of luck but the barometer does not lie.
 
Last edited:

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
When a storm gets a name I start taking pictures of the data from Radar US and start watching the pressure. Lower the mb the stronger the storm. When Dorian hit NC the pressure was 956mb.

I keep a barometer on me when I am on the water. Learned long ago that judging weather can sometimes be a matter of luck but the barometer does not lie. Was out in a curtain box at Hatteras Inlet long before internet.
how about fish activity and barometric pressure, do you see any correlation with your catches and the pressure levels?
 

darenative

Ten Pointer
When a storm gets a name I start taking pictures of the data from Radar US and start watching the pressure. Lower the mb the stronger the storm. When Dorian hit NC the pressure was 956mb.

Was out in a curtain box on the North end of Ocracoke years ago. When we left out of Odens, a commercial fisherman came up and told us not to go out because the pressure was really dropping. We paid him no mind because we did not have a charter and a hard North West wind really pushes the birds to that part of the reef. Wind speed got up to 30 knots and we were having an epic hunt. Then the wind picked up to steady 50 knots. Lost about 100 decoys and the wing to the box blew away. It got dangerous quick. If it had been cold we would have died.


To this day, I keep a barometer on the boat. Judging weather can sometimes be a matter of luck but the barometer does not lie.
We keep a blown glass water filled barometer on the porch or in the dining room. Not too often that i leave the house that i don't take note of it. When the pressure really drops and it starts overflowing into the catch tray you better keep your butt at home
 

Shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Thanks Downeastnc! What’s your opinion on that next wave?
Theres really no model agreement at all. Most models have a storm but the euro builds a blocking ridge that would force the storm dangerously towards the CONUS while the gfs has a gaping hole in the ridge and the storm recurves safely away from the coast.

Quite frankly until a center has formed most of the models are simply going to be off by large margins. They may initialize with the low at 14N but it may really be at 12.5 or some other location. This will lead to poor modeling early like this. The best take away is that there is a storm on most models and that's the part we just watch.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Models starting to play up the disturbance over the southern Bahamas knows as 95L.....some of the latest runs bring it up the east coast into the SE moving slowly putting down some big time rain totals....it would be a weak system most likely so wind threat at this time would probably be low, rain is the big worry with this one. Could be impacting our state in as little as 3-4 days before it would effect us.....probably around late Sunday into Monday....some models take it across Florida in to GA/AL and while it still gets rain into western NC the totals are lower, there are also some that bring it the east side of Florida and then inland over FL/GA border moving N and it ends up in western NC moving slow and dumping rain....
 
Top