2019 Severe weather thread

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
So as I've had time to look a bit better at what is now 99L in the central atlantic there is a concern. Of course its many many days away and lots can change. The models basically have it from the south tip of Florida on the euro to just off the coast here on a near miss. Either way it looks to be a threat at the very least.
 

oldest school

Old Mossy Horns
Shaggy said:
So as I've had time to look a bit better at what is now 99L in the central atlantic there is a concern. Of course its many many days away and lots can change. The models basically have it from the south tip of Florida on the euro to just off the coast here on a near miss. Either way it looks to be a threat at the very least.
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when?
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
oldest school said:
when?
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Around the sept 4th time frame give or take a day or 2. Its all.just model data right now and subject to massive changes. It's just that 99L kind of popped up out.of nowhere wasnt modeled and appears to be organizing very nicely. This will all change future model runs.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
woodmoose said:
typical,,,,I leave on a boondoggle there abouts,,,,just in time for wife to get grumpy that I am out west for a storm,,,,

guess I should quit planning boondoggles in Sept???

nope
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No way. You never know with these storms and it isn't worth canceling anything for.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Could be some severe storms yet again today.....especially in NE corner of the state but really anywhere can get one....

day1otlk_1630.gif
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
98L should become a named storm just off the SE coast this weekend and track NE offshore.......still it will make the offshore waters no place to be......and rips on the coast will be worse than normal.

99L is going to be one to watch as well, all signs indicate it too will end up a named storm as well....we are entering peak season and the trend the last decade or so has been for the peak to last longer and for Oct to be more active.....so we will see how it goes.....if a HH plane was to go out to 99L right now they would probably find it was darn near if not already organized enough to name.....

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
99L has now become TD5 and expected to be in the Caribbean as a hurricane in 5 days. If it crosses into the Bahamas afterwards then it will be something to watch.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
I'd be watching future track of Dorian. NHC is suggesting a stronger storm with perhaps some RI over the next day or so. The model consensus they are using is based on a weak storm. If its stronger the models MAY begin to move it further north and have less impact with the greater antilles and therefore less weakening.

Just something to watch for now.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Dorian track shifting north, as is this is what we call a cane killer track, Hispaniola is nicknamed shreddaniola by storm watchers as its large size and very tall mts are very disruptive to hurricane circulations and many a storms that cross the island never recover.....

If the storm stays on the strong side of guidance then a more northerly track is favored and we could see it eventually track north of the islands and into the Bahamas at which point the SE will need a strong front to save it from a landfall....

there are also several benchmarks we look for one is the 60W 20N one, storms that pass 20N east of 60W are much much more likely to miss the US, where as most land falling storms have tracked south of that point, and once the storm crossed 75W ( roughly in line with Hatteras ) then a east turn is needed to miss the US and not just a north one.

024958_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Looks like it still has a date with the big islands of the greater antilles and that's gonna kill the storm along with wind shear from a TUTT. This one may not survive the Caribbean.
 
dpc

dpc

Old Mossy Horns
Contributor
High of 71 here today.

If my wife wasn’t disgusted and I didn’t risk jail time I would sit out back naked.
 

shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Homebrewale said:
The main thing I want to know about Dorian is that is it going to be around for first day of dove.
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If the NHC is correct it dies and likely doesnt recover.

Of concern in the 11am discussion was how the ukmet and its ensembles kept it north of the big islands. Now it's one model BUT it correctly called Irma's impact on Cuba and the southwest turn and eventual landfall of florence. So its something to watch.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
302cj said:
Starting to look like Daytona area gonna have a little storm.
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Yeah at the least Dorian will be a weak storm as it runs into central or northern Florida.....assuming that is where it ends up, the other less likely scenario is for a hard turn to the west and tracking through southern Florida or south of Florida into the GOM. If the storm does hit central to northern Florida eventually whatever is left will move up near NC bringing rain....

I will add one caveat if the center keeps jumping north as it has done today as the inner structure tries to organize the chances for this to make it further north up the SE coast increase....overall I would put the chances of this directly impacting NC pretty low at this point, but we could see a slow trend towards a further north landfall over the next few days....
 
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shaggy

Old Mossy Horns
Well the 18z runs are slightly ticking north with the track.

The center reformed almost 75 miles northeast today which changes things and they are also bringing in a trough across the central usa that weakens the ridge a bit.

It's one cycle of the models but any continued north trends or anything like that and it could be time to perk up our attention levels.
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Pretty noticeable shift between the 06Z guidance this morning and the 00Z guidance tonight.....one thing the models are catching up on is TS Erin off the NC coast and how she will play into the ridging off the east coast this weekend and what that means to Dorian....the chances Dorian makes it further north than say central Florida continue to go up and NC is much more in play now than this time yesterday, that said there is still tons of times left so there is no need to worry yet...

06Z guidance solid central to southern Florida hit, only 1 recurve type model nothing north of Cape Canaveral
05L_tracks_06z.png

00Z guidance mostly central to north Florida, several SC/GA hits almost all tracks now north of Cape Canaveral
05L_tracks_00z.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Another thing to watch for to determine where Dorian may go is how strong he gets...this is the GFS ensembles and notice the red tracks are lower pressure IE stronger storm, the ensembles that strengthen Dorian are the ones that go more north.....the ensembles that keep the storm weaker are the ones that hit Florida

05L_gefs_18z.png
 

downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Latest GFS not good for NC still at this point the trend would be for this to end up OTS and never landfall still at this point we now have models showing direct impact to NC and its time to pay serious attention, this would be a Monday into Tues next week time frame.....big weekend for the beaches etc do not need this lurking off the coast.

gfs_mslp_wind_us_29.png

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downeastnc

Old Mossy Horns
Its much more likely to hit Florida.....the storm is really getting its act together and this thing could easily be a major hurricane over the Bahamas and even until landfall......quite a bit different from yesterday when a weakish TS seemed the upper limit....

the core has finally got organized and its off to the races...

gifsBy12hr_05.gif
 
Sportsman

Sportsman

Old Mossy Horns
Same ol', same ol'.

Why look at this every day, multiple times a day? No one has a clue what these storms are really going to do until they do it. Amuses me how amped up folks get about a storm that is 1,000 miles and 7-10 days away. When it's 300 miles away, let me know.
 

302cj

Old Mossy Horns
Sportsman said:
Same ol', same ol'.

Why look at this every day, multiple times a day? No one has a clue what these storms are really going to do until they do it. Amuses me how amped up folks get about a storm that is 1,000 miles and 7-10 days away. When it's 300 miles away, let me know.
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I don’t know why but since I was 8-10 years old I’m amped at any kind of storm. I get the same kinda rush with bad weather coming as I did last weekend when Breaking Benjamin started with Red Cold River!
 
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